NFL Lines and Predictions: Bears-Lions Forecast, Seahawks vs Jets Moneyline Pick, and Over/Under Picks for SNF and MNF

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (Thursday Night Football)

Sportsbook users must carefully dive into Nashville’s hometown headlines before wagering on Thursday’s kickoff between the Tennessee Titans and visiting Dallas Cowboys. For a start, FanDuel Sportsbook’s generous (-10.5) spread on the favored Silver Star is not merely handicapped out of disparate win-loss results for this Thursday’s opponents over the last several weekends. While it’s true that the Cowboys are flying and the Titans are badly struggling with a protracted losing streak, a weird quirk of the AFC South race may compete with the other angles in making Dallas the prohibitive favorite to win.

Tennessee and Jacksonville are tied for the division’s lead with equal records of 7-8, with the Jaguars also perceived to be headed in the opposite direction of the hapless Titans. However, due to a potential series-split (and complex tiebreaker formula) that could occur between the rivals if Tennessee manages to turn things around in Week 18, neither team can guarantee itself an AFC South divisional crown with a victory in Week 17, even should the Jaguars win and the Titans fall to defeat, or vice versa. While each club is technically behind by a single game in the AFC Wild Card hunt, there is no plausible way that Jacksonville or Tennessee could lose in Week 18 and still reach the playoffs.

That makes Week 17 into a likely “preseason” scenario for the Tennessee Titans. Head coach Mike Vrabel has already admitted that with his roster ailing, and everything resting on the Jaguars-Titans outcome next weekend, Tennessee will have to “make some decisions” about who will sit or start on Thursday. Translated out of coach’s speak, that means Derrick Henry and other Nashville stars are about to take quarters off.

Final scores from as recent as Week 16 show why the Dallas starting lineup isn’t a no-brainer pick against Tennessee, or against the point spread. Baltimore only defeated Atlanta by 8 points, Buffalo let Chicago hang around for a while, and Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers needed an overtime field goal to conquer the woeful Arizona Cardinals. Lest we neglect to mention that Tennessee lost to 2-win Houston last Saturday, a loss partially responsible for the pessimistic O/U (40.5) point spread offered on TNF.

Often, an Over/Under line’s low-side potential is tied to the underdog’s chances to avoid a blow-out. For instance, Las Vegas often considers a parlay pick on the underdog plus the “Under” to be an illegally correlated betting combination, since Chicago has a superior chance to beat Buffalo 17-16 as opposed to 52-49. The Dallas Cowboys’ TNF handicap is upside-down in that respect, considering that a 35-0 visiting lead would give neither coaching staff a reason to push for points in the 2nd half. But the Tennessee Titans are experimenting with inexperienced QBs, and Malik Willis’ mistake prone game could serve-up Big D with some short fields to score on. The Dallas Cowboy offense is on afterburners, averaging close to 40 points-per-game over the last 4 outings.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (40.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (Sunday, January 1)

Jacksonville’s modest (-4.5) point spread at Houston on Sunday represents more than the Texans’ encouraging win over Tennessee. It may represent the last stand of skeptical bookmakers who don’t think the 7-8 Jaguars have any staying power. Jax hasn’t boasted any kind of impressive record on the road in spite of the upstart club’s active winning streak and its chances to win the weak AFC South. Trevor Lawrence’s team lost at Indianapolis this year and was defeated 40-14 by the Lions in Motor City.

Not so incidentally, the Jags were beaten by visiting Houston back on October 9th.

But the first Houston-Jacksonville result could be a key to finding an effective favorite’s pick early on Sunday. Lawrence is no longer trying to figure out how to play better football against triumphant rivals in rematches. He’s got a firm grip on the NFL playbook and a superior cast to work with against David Mills of the Texans, a QB who shouldn’t scare speculators at all at this point. Jacksonville’s defense has begun taking steps forward following a porous midseason, holding the New York Jets to almost nada in Week 16.

WagerBop’s Pick: Jaguars ATS (-4.5)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Sunday, January 1)

A similar dynamic will be at play in Motor City as the Detroit Lions look to triumph and stay alive while the floundering Bears try to snap what could be a season-ending, double-digit losing streak. Chicago is certainly playing hard trying to avoid the embarrassment and earn respect for a team without premier talent at QB and various skill-positions, outplaying expectations against the Philadelphia Eagles in a loss 2 weekends ago, and held MVP candidate Josh Allen to 213 total yards last week.

Chicago-Detroit’s timeless vinegar as a rivalry could also help ensure a tight game, illustrated by FanDuel’s careful (-255) odds and (-5.5) point spread on Detroit.

WagerBop agrees that Sunday’s game is likely to be close, anxious, and nail-biting. But that’s why it’s a tad incongruous for the Over/Under line on Detroit and Chicago’s rematch to stand well above 50 total points at O/U (52.5). The Lions and Bears combined for 61 points back in November, and yet Sunday’s scenario could be very different psychologically.

The Detroit Lions have steadily improved in the 2020s, but they’ve never had to deal with this much pressure to beat a division rival on home turf. Chicago’s defense has one more Sunday and one more reason to play hard in 2022-23, and it’s likely that the Lions will commit some early mistakes trying to make the Ford Field crowd go delirious. No watershed moment ever comes easy for an NFL club taking on a blood enemy.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (52.5)

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, January 1)

One of the running themes of NFL odds in Week 17 is that sportsbooks, bettors, and handicappers are considering the season’s stats in totality. That’s not usually a bad idea when taking advantage of a 16-week sample size of games and box scores.

In this case, though, a plurality of Sunday’s kickoffs will be affected by playoff races, roster fatigue, and other unique circumstances that haven’t necessarily applied in NFL picks to date.

For instance, the New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks’ seasons have plenty in common apart from having lots of players around who’ve blocked for Geno Smith. Scoring offense and defense from each team is ranked comparably, and each club stands at 7-8 with 2 victories needed to have any chance at reaching the postseason.
Yet it’s also obvious that making the playoffs with a record around .500 is easier in the NFC than in the AFC this season. There are already indications that New York (-126) coaches have begun looking ahead to 2023 after a terrible stretch run, making it curious that Seattle should be the slight moneyline underdog at home, even with a 3-game losing streak. Motivation may not be the only factor in an NFL game, but it’s rather significant when one team’s coaches are giving-up while Seattle’s gum-chomping icon doesn’t know how to.

WagerBop’s Pick: Seahawks (+108)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday Night Football)

Last weekend’s “submarinal” Over/Under totals on National Football League kickoffs didn’t work out to be as accurate as the opening few games made them seem. Saturday’s slate began with a series of low-scoring contests that even included the Kansas City Chiefs scoring 24 points in victory, and manufacturing an easy “Under” win for speculators in addition to covering the point spread against Seattle. But quickly, the day’s games began hitting 50+ points on the regular, and on Christmas Day, the 2022-23 L.A. Rams – of all teams – scored 50+ points all by themselves against the hapless Denver Broncos.

As a result, the Over/Under lines on Week 17 appear more like standard NFL numbers, and not a handicap of the 2016 “Hurricane Bowl” between North Carolina State and Notre Dame. An exception, though, involves Sunday night’s O/U (35.5) point-total line for Baltimore vs Pittsburgh, an always-physical game in a chilly outdoor setting.

QB Lamar Jackson’s injury may be worse than fans initially feared, giving us reason to believe Baltimore will play another cautious, conservative game trying to win by any score and solidify the Ravens’ postseason chances. But the fact that the Steelers squandered so many chances to score before finally nabbing the Las Vegas Raiders 13-10 in a snoozer coming into SNF makes the low-side pick appealing at any line over 35 total points.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (35.5)

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday Night Football)

Perhaps last week’s low-balled scoring forecasts have leaked into Week 17 after all. Monday night in Cincinnati is expected to be unseasonably mild, if a little damp, and the Bengals’ offense is among the hottest units in the league with Cincinnati surging at 11-4. QB Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense needs no elaborate introduction in this space. Yet the betting lines for this week include a cautious O/U (49.5) number on Buffalo-at-Cincy.

The Buffalo (-116) defense remains a highly-ranked unit without Von Miller. Cincinnati’s defense has also stiffened in recent days, holding Rhamondre Stevenson and the hot New England backfield to under 60 yards rushing in Week 16’s key victory. But the Bengals also had an easy draw of sorts, taking on New England just a week after Stevenson’s lateral-attempt at 0:00 turned into a catastrophe for the reeling Patriots.

Buffalo has allowed 33, 25, and 29 points in its previous 3 games vs elite NFL quarterbacks from Minnesota, Detroit, and Miami respectively. That’s not great news for “Under” speculators with Joe Burrow hosting the Bills on Monday night. As we’ve reported before, Burrow’s offense is a rope-climbing unit that’s perfectly glad to beat New England 22-18, but which is clearly capable of scoring 30+ to win a high profile shoot-out game. Buffalo’s task will be to outscore Cincy, since shutting down Burrow in January isn’t an option.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (49.5)