Some years ago NBC ran a memorable sports-comedy sketch in which toxic-masculine male announcers assigned to the NCAAW genre read impeccably from cue-cards designed to make them sound like world-renowned experts on women’s basketball, then laugh off-camera and off-mic about the slim chance that they’d ever even watch a women’s game. There are still conflicting interpretations of what the comedians were trying to say exactly – the characters would be portrayed sleazier and more-unlikable in 2019, that’s for sure.
The sketch is also interesting for its satire of announcing in-general. Announcers and (especially) color-commentators are magicians, illusionists of a sort who always have every statistic handy and who know where every athlete’s family is from and what they like to do for New Year’s. Chris Schenkel once called an Olympic marathon as if he had been the next-door neighbor of every contestant in the race. The anchor’s trivia was spoken so naturally that nobody stopped to wonder how Schenkel had omniscient, infallible knowledge of running and 75 other sports.
We see the cue-card veneer fall in NFL coverage sometimes – most-notably Stephen A. Smith’s recent episode in which he lined-up players on the L.A. Chargers who didn’t exist or who played for other clubs. It reminded me of when the long-ignored Chicago/St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals franchise finally made a Super Bowl, and an ESPN analyst said something like “I’m impressed by that Darnell Dansby out of Rutgers,” essentially a word-salad comprised of 3 different Arizona players’ info.
As you know, dear reader, WagerBop is a candid site to a fault. We don’t pass on any opportunity to break the Fourth Wall when discussing the 4th quarter.
I’m here to admit it folks – I’ve got help. A fine pro pigskin scout named Chris Aliperto has been sleuthing-out stats and ‘capping angles for a handful of WagerBop picks per week, and we’re giving him a guest-prediction in this weekend’s preview of selected Sunday match-ups (and of course a tout on Monday Night Football).
Much like the Stanley Kubrick film referenced above, Chris’s Week 12 prediction begins at the beginning. As for my contribution, I’ll say I’m bound to lose a pick at some point after Week 11’s lucky hot streak. Using nuggets of info from other bloggers reminds me of Jim Thomas, a fellow whose mostly-reprinted NFL column for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch came with a disclaimer: “Some of this content compiled from other sources.” Thomas used his original copy to make fun of fans and produce rude remarks, so he would have fit right in on that NBC stunt of yore.
We’ll try to do better…in public-relations and NFL predictions.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
It’s not a bad idea to start from the top, anyway – even if there’s a few potential stinkers in the midday lineup of Week 12 games. You can imagine the Cleveland vs Miami scrum turning-out boring in a bunch of different ways, and that’s not because both teams on the field are lousy.
The Browns are suddenly hot on defense and winning games, but suffered yet another player-discipline issue vs Pittsburgh when Myles Garrett swung a helmet at the noggin of a Steeler. Cleveland’s 1st-overall pick in the 2017 draft was suspended indefinitely for his actions, and now the Browns will have a huge hole to fill.
Maybe Freddie Kitchens can get a similar game from LB Joe Schobert, the former Wisconsin star who made 7 tackles including a sack and intercepted 2 Mason Rudolph passes. Kareem Hunt made his return to the NFL after a lengthy suspension and is bolstering Cleveland through its nascent win streak. Nick Chubb continues to be the workhorse back, however, and is already over 1000 yards on the campaign. Meanwhile, Hunt is further developing as a receiver and looming large on 3rd downs.
But what if Sunday turns into an Under (46) gambler’s dream, a snoozer for the 216? Baker Mayfield is still producing at a mediocre clip at best. The inconsistent youngster threw for just 193 yards in the victory last week, and his 76.8 QBR stands worst in the NFL among starting QB’s who haven’t missed action.
Miami will come in off a 37-20 loss at home to the Buffalo Bills, which had snapped a surprising 2-game winning streak for HC Brian Flores. The Dolphins have the worst overall running game seen in years, partially by design. In-season trades and neglect have decimated the unit and other positions on the club, and it’s actually amazing that Miami (+10.5) has posted wins at all.
Miami scored all of its non-kicking points last week via WR Jakeem Grant. The seldom-used 5’7” 170-pound speedster returned a kickoff 101 yards for a touchdown, and added a 7-yard rushing TD on an end-around. Maybe he should take it easy for a few games…a trade could occur quickly if he scores too many points for comfort.
Pick: Under
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Consensus around the league appears to be that Chicago ((-6) and tightening ATS thanks to gambling pressure) will not be able to put the pieces together and go on a late hot streak thanks to inefficiency at the QB position. I got into it with a Twitter pundit this week who called Mitch Trubisky “pathetic.” You can’t handicap NFL quarterbacks that way because football is relative, and the 64 1st and 2nd-string QBs of The Shield would be/have been dazzling in any other competitive situations. The presence of the top 50 athletes at any position in any sport competing at something brings the potential for last-minute turnarounds and the solving of problems; Derek Carr of the Raiders was supposedly “pathetic” just a short time ago.
To be sure, at the moment the Windy City offense resembles the unit visiting from New York on Sunday. Chicago has lost 4-of its last 5 games and heads into Sunday off a 17-7 loss to the L.A. Rams. Trubisky exited early after throwing for just 190 yards on 24-of-43 passing attempts. There was no obvious injury at the time, but Nagy insists his QB had suffered a hip-pointer. Chase Daniel isn’t expected to see a whole lot of action in Week 12.
Skipper Matt Nagy has caught some flack for the way he has used his running backs. We never truly know what is going on behind the scenes, but with the explosiveness rookie RB David Montgomery flashed in the preseason, many thought he would play a more-prominent role in the Bears offense. It’s now a month ago Montgomery was given a full workload in a 17-16 loss to the Chargers, a game in which the former Iowa State star ripped off 135 yards on 27 carries, but he has mostly looked ineffective since. He ran for just 31 yards on 14 carries in the loss last week.
Nobody is talking about the Bears’ blocking, cohesion, and discipline at the LOS which is actually the key to it all. Kurt Warner has never spoken about quarterbacks being “good or bad,” but rather “having success.” To have success, you have to execute the formula the team has for winning. Chicago doesn’t have to score a thousand points – its defense will be aided by a blustery wind (imagine that) and a sagging Miami side.
The Bears aren’t bad at QB when you consider that not many teams boast such a reliable, combat-tested #2 guy. As the up-and-coming sportswriter Marisa Ingemi is fond of pointing out, Chase Daniel is a sentence.
New York has lost 6 in a row and suffers from a weak defensive backfield and flaky pass-blocking. QB Daniel Jones has also had his struggles after a promising start. The electric Saquon Barkley has not been able to get anything going since his return from an ankle injury.
Pick: Bears ATS
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Another thing that has bugged handicappers in the past is the tendency of national “Power Poll” critics to give big-money NFL teams the benefit of the doubt. It’s not my intention to always tout the Cardinals, who were probably over-rated on defense by fans this year, but it was always interesting to see the pre-Super Bowl era Big Red ranked last among teams that shared the club’s W/L record over and over again. It’s hard to always match other NFL teams in wins and losses if you’re consistently worse-off than they are. The only “sound” logic on pundits’ behalf could have been that Bidwill’s Birds were simply the luckiest football team which had ever existed, somehow always matching the records of those who ought to have been crushing them.
Are the Dallas Cowboys getting too much benefit of the doubt in 2019? If not, Sunday’s marquee 4-EST kickoff at Gillette Stadium could be a Super Bowl preview. If not, then the 6-4 Silver Star is probably doomed.
Dak Prescott and the Big D receiving corps made a fantastic combination in a 35-27 victory at Ford Field last week. (Tell me why it didn’t happen on Thanksgiving again?!) It’s led to a tightening (+6) number on the Cowboys which might be overlooking the Pats’ game-control ability in the 2nd half.
New England returns home after a 17-10 victory in Philadelphia. The Brady Bunch has won a moneyball-esque 20 straight games in Foxboro including games played in the postseason. Tom Brady is 4-0 in his career against America’s Team. Not that these are golden days for Brady, who completed just 55% of his passes in the win last week, with only 216 yards and 0 TD’s against what had been a struggling Eagles secondary.
Look for the Cowboys to make a noble effort, repelled by a chilly rain and some type of Jedi death-blow from The Hoodie in the final 15:00.
Pick: Patriots ATS
Before I get to Monday night’s match-up between the Rams and visiting Ravens, here’s an exclusive free-of-charge prediction from guest-handicapper Chris Aliperto.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
The 7-3 Bills will host the 3-7 Broncos at New Era Field on Sunday. With games against Dallas, Baltimore, and New England still to come, Buffalo will have to make sure not to come out flat in a near must-win game. HC Sean McDermott’s club was able to bounce back from a 19-16 loss at Cleveland with a 37-20 rout of the Dolphins, but points will be much harder to come by this week against a stingy Broncos defense.
Denver’s offense showed signs of life against a flat Vikings defense in the first half last week, and while Vic Fangio’s team may be better than its 3-7 record suggests, holding onto to leads has been a problem all season. The Broncos have led going into the 4th quarter in the 7 of 10 games but have only won 3 of them. Last week was the latest, after losing 27-24 to Minnesota despite a 20-0 half-time lead.
Bills QB Josh Allen has been quite a bit better than Broncos QB Brandon Allen, and while I do see a close, low-scoring game here in the battle of the Allen’s, I think Josh and his Bills will prevail at home. Over his last five games, Josh Allen has thrown 8 TD’s to zero INT’s, and only Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has a longer current streak of consecutive passes without an INT. Allen will no doubt be tested by a tough Denver defense this week, but his scrambling ability will be the difference in this one for Buffalo to cover. The 2nd year QB has rushed for 4 TD’s over his last 4 games.
Buffalo is 10-2 straight up over its last 12 games as a home favorite, and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Broncos. The Bills defense will be ready unlike Minnesota was last week, and I think Denver actually takes it on the chin here. I personally am not an under bettor, but if it creeps up closer to 40 I may hop on that as well. I see a 20-10 Bills victory, and the Bills -4 is my play of the week.
Baltimore Ravens at L.A. Rams
We’ll wrap up this week’s NFL preview much like our Premier League content on Monday’s stand-alone match, which reads like a brief “capsule” but with a promise of more if so-far steady gambling lines take a tumble in the few days of Las Vegas action there is left.
Subtle line-movement on the Rams has created an opportunity for bettors ATS. I usually recommend moneyline plays on games with very tight spreads since it’s such a pain to watch scenarios unfold in which coaches are at cross-purposes with the gambler (incidentally, the same can be true of very-wide spreads). But in this case the Rams were a field-goal underdog and are now a (+3.5) underdog at home in prime-time, and suddenly the calculus becomes simple math. You can totally imagine Baltimore squeaking-out a tie-breaking field goal drive to cap-off a road win.
To many pundits’ surprise, Todd Gurley is back, and that’s really good news for Los Angeles QB Jared Goff.
Not that Baltimore and its wunderkind QB aren’t flourishing at 8-2. Lamar Jackson took the NFL by storm once again last week as the Ravens pounded the Texans 41-7. John Harbaugh’s squad boasts a #1-rated offense, a play-making defense and a 6-game winning streak.
But the % pick still wins-out on Monday – as the lines stand on Saturday morning – since a bruising ground attack was key to the Rams’ run at the grail last season. With that ingredient in place, L.A. is a dangerous host-underdog.
Pick: Rams ATS
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.
Twitter: @scorethepuck
Email: kurt@wagerbop.com
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