NFL Divisional Round Odds, Spreads, and Predictions: Green Bay Poised To Cover a TD at Lambeau?

Pro and international sports leagues are designed to bring about good games and surprise scores. People in FIFA-crazed cities who haven’t paid attention to a World Cup can socially wriggle out of it by saying, “Oh, man, lots of surprises this time.” You can’t go wrong by pointing to token upsets, or even better, headlines on rashes of upset triumphs in somebody’s favorite competition.

But the NFL? Eh, maybe not so much, at least not this time. Last playoff round’s Wild Card Weekend wasn’t full of stunning outcomes.

In fact, tight Super Bowl odds on the 8 surviving teams reflect a “cutting the fat” theme as unprepared clubs lose playoff games and suffer elimination. Tampa Bay clobbered a Philadelphia team that had labored just to make the dance. Kansas City ended Pittsburgh’s season by an unceremonious 42-21 margin, while Cincinnati ended the Las Vegas Raiders’ brave postseason bid on Saturday. Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams clobbered the Arizona Cardinals in an NFC West rubber match, but Arizona QB Kyler Murray’s mental breakdown was a liability for the Big Red. The Rams were, after all, 1-to-2 favorites to win the game straight-up.

If there were exceptions to the “predictable” theme, they came with San Francisco’s 23-17 victory over the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo’s 47-17 humiliation of visiting New England. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick may be 10x as accomplished as newcomers from the NCAA ranks, but his problems in Week 19 mirrored those of Arizona HC Kliff Kingsbury. When saddled with a developing, as-yet ineffective QB in a playoff game, it’s only a matter of time before an NFL defense begins surrendering TDs. Not that the Buffalo Bills wasted any time in galloping down the field in the 1st half, scoring 4 touchdowns on 4 opening possessions. New England fans will still question whether QB Mac Jones is the man for the job.

San Francisco’s win wasn’t shocking to those who’ve ignored Dallas Cowboys hype and followed injury reports instead. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was criticized for calling a “QB Draw” play with seconds left and no time-outs in the Wild Card loss, extinguishing the 4th-quarter clock following Dak Prescott’s 20-yard gain. But like the Patriots, Cardinals, and Eagles, the Cowboys didn’t show enough life with the football in hand to prevent their opponent from racing to a solid lead. If there’s criticism of Kellen Moore in Dallas, it should center around the Silver Star’s delay-of-game penalty after pulling off a successful fake punt for a big play against the 49ers. Moore’s offense being unprepared for such an important 1st down underscores the tension between head coach Mike McCarthy, a grizzled veteran of Lambeau Field, and his Boise Blue play-caller. Meanwhile, RB Ezekiel Elliott’s injured ACL did even more to slow Dallas down.

How many “trim the fat” blow-out losses will look obviously preordained in hindsight following Week 20? Probably not too many…except for a kickoff at Lambeau we’ve got eyes on.

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Odds and Best Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (Saturday, January 22)

Betting lines on the first of this weekend’s Divisional Round playoff scrums has the Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) right in the sweet spot as a point-spread or moneyline pick against-the-public.

Las Vegas didn’t command much value in the team’s own hometown last weekend, but was up for the battle, nearly tripping Joe Burrow and the Bengals in a Wild Card contest. Burrow now faces his first road playoff game against the Tennessee Titans, causing even more jitters among would-be underdog bettors.

Neither of those reasons for slow betting action amount to a case for discounting Cincy, especially since Burrow’s disciplined cast bears no resemblance to sloppy Bengal squads we’d gotten used to.

Also impacting the gambling odds this weekend is a 220+ pound fly in the Bengals’ ointment, wearing #22 on its jersey. RB Derrick Henry‘s expected return has the Titans drawing bets at 1-to-2 on the moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook. Nashville’s ground game could make even Buffalo’s running attack play like a skipping Waylon Jennings record in comparison, a factor that is helping the Titans to single-digit odds to win the Super Bowl this year.

The unpredictability of the AFC Divisional Round’s opening contest is illustrated by FanDuel’s “down the middle” handicap” of a (47) point O/U line. The Bengals haven’t played the Titans in 2021-22, but Cincinnati’s aggressive front-7 has managed to slow down San Francisco and Baltimore’s ground games this season. Tennessee has also been chronically unable to pull away on scoreboards, with or without a dominant rushing threat to kill the clock on game-sealing drives. That opens the door for Cincinnati to bide time and prepare for a comeback if Burrow starts the scrum star-struck.

WagerBop has touted Cincinnati and Tennessee as valuable underdog “futures” picks for Super Bowl 56 throughout most of this season. One of our recommendations has to lose on Saturday, but as always, the best bet will be on the fatter odds for a toss-up contest.

Recommended bet: Bengals (+160)

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (Saturday, January 22)

The Green Bay Packers probably have the best practical chance of any team to reach the Greatest Show on Earth in 2022. The Packers enjoy a rare confluence of NFL-best record, reigning MVP at quarterback, and league-best turnover ratio. Green Bay has also enjoyed a week off while preparing to host opponents at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will feel at home on an icy tundra following his decades of experience playing in Foxboro, but the same might not be true for all of the defending NFL champs. Furthermore, supposing that the L.A. Rams reach the NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field, the setting would not remind ex-Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford of fun Sundays.

Saturday evening’s hosts are a (-255) moneyline favorite and a (-6) point option on the spread. The San Francisco 49ers are getting a modicum of credit for having upset the Dallas Cowboys last weekend, but news narratives on Silver Star losses almost always focus on criticism of the Cowboys. There isn’t enough space to report on what San Fran did to make Dallas look bad with the ball, or on Jimmy Garoppolo‘s resiliency through a winter of injuries.

Green Bay’s defense has been porous enough to allow 13 rushing TDs and some big opposing stat-totals through the air. But for comparison, the 49ers have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Pack’s next game plan has basically written itself, as the fatigued NFC West guests may find themselves forced to throw the football under duress early in the contest. If the Divisional Round playoff turns into a gun-fight between Aaron Rodgers and Garoppolo, Green Bay’s injured OL won’t prevent a HOF’er from prevailing in wintery conditions.

Considering the near-zero degree temperatures and potential snow anticipated in Wisconsin this weekend, an Over/Under (47.5) point total is a high number. But playoff blow-outs are rarely predicted, and yet they happen every year anyway. San Francisco’s hard road to Lambeau is likely to show on the 49ers’ form in Green Bay. If the Packers are able to romp to a 31-7 lead, the resulting trash time wouldn’t mix well with bets wagered on the “Under” side.

Recommended bet: Packers (-6)

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, January 23)

Bruce Arians seems to have retained the trust and respect of his roster despite last week’s troubling helmet-slap incident on the sideline. But even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won easily in a playoff debut against the Philadelphia Eagles, Arians’ “General Patton” moment marked the 2nd time in 2 weeks that a Bucs controversy outweighed the outcome on the field. The defending Super Bowl champs will run into more resistance from the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday, but with or without distractions, Sin City expects the Buccaneers to squeak past L.A. by a (-3) margin.

The Rams-Bucs betting odds mirror a trend in Super Bowl gambling lines, namely that speculators think L.A.’s injury woes will keep the team out of the big dance. The Rams’ skeptical Super Bowl odds reflect the club’s short-order need to plug holes in the secondary and in the offensive backfield. Eric Weddle was called out of a multi-year retirement to play safety on Monday night, and somehow helped the Rams frustrate QB Kyler Murray throughout most of L.A.’s lopsided win over the Arizona Cardinals. Cam Akers bravely returned to carry the pigskin against Arizona, but the Rams were still pressed into utilizing heretofore-unknown running backs on Monday night.

Future generations will hear of Eric Weddle’s legendary performance. The last time such a bang-and-crash player returned from years-spanning retirement to lead in a crucial victory may have been when Bronco Nagurski suited up for the Chicago Bears in 1943. However, the incident also highlights a problem for the Rams’ quest to host Super Bowl 56. Kyler Murray had a bad game on Monday, but a meeting with Tom Brady looms in the Divisional Round, and potential games against Aaron Rodgers and Pat Mahomes after that. Brady is precise enough to punish a defensive backfield so short on healthy bodies that alumni from the 2019’s are being called onto the field to compete. Weddle could have another remarkable outing this weekend, but he can’t cover all the Buccaneers’ dangerous weapons by himself.

A (48) point O/U line on the Buccaneers-Rams is offered with the knowledge that if nowhere else, Tampa can be counted on to host a warm, welcoming game of pigskin. However, Los Angeles can get pressure on Brady with consistency and may be biting at the Achilles Heel of an old NFL signal-caller like Tom Terrific. Arians’ team will fight back by running straight at the Rams’ top-notch linemen and LBs, hoping to calm the pass rush. Buccaneer defenders will double and triple-cover Los Angeles wide receiver Cooper Kupp for the simple reason that “cocky” doesn’t amount to “crazy” on The Shield’s gridirons. Visiting signal-caller Matt Stafford won’t be called upon to attempt 2 passes for every run, especially because L.A. can’t afford to get into a shoot-out against the Bucs.

Recommended bet: Under (48)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, January 23)

The “Over” wager is often a go-to of recreational NFL playoff betting. Why cheer for a single team to score touchdowns when you can cheer for both teams to light it up? Those who have already browsed WagerBop’s recommendation on a Tampa vs Los Angeles pick – the “Under” – might be itching to root for bombs, blundered punts, and a bonanza of points in the final game of the weekend.

Of course, that is not to say that the “Over” bet is a solid pick. Bookmakers expect a close slug-fest between the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) and the visiting Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, so close that QBs Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes are expected to produce at least (54.5) total points as each superstar desperately tries to out-score the other in the 2nd half. But an O/U line handicapped with such a high number should trigger some level of skepticism.

Though the Chiefs and Bills scored a combined 80+ points on Wild Card Weekend, both units are still football teams and thus subject to the same factors as other players who block and tackle for a living. There are many “name-brand” reasons to predict a high point total on Sunday, but what’s missing is consideration for each team’s likely play-selection. Weather will be calm and above freezing for most of Sunday in Missouri, but the defending AFC champions were frozen on offense for much of Buffalo’s 38-20 win when the clubs met in autumn. KC’s defense has grown by leaps and bounds since then, while Buffalo’s counterparts handled the heavy lifting with Allen’s offense slumping against average foes.

The Bills rushed for close to 7 yards per carry in last week’s 47-17 demolition of New England. Josh Allen’s sterling statistics aside, Buffalo would be foolish not to try to keep that up on Sunday. Remember also that Kansas City’s pass-happy system doesn’t negate the Chiefs’ ability to run short-yardage offense and control the ball. Arizona HC Kliff Kingsbury made a dreadful mistake in foregoing any option-play calls in the Cardinals’ blow-out Wild Card loss, given that Kyler Murray is among the most talented rushers in the NFL. Andy Reid won’t commit the same tactical error by discouraging Pat Mahomes from using his nimble legs.

Gamblers should try to picture a game when making NFL picks. Sunday evening’s bout could play out like Baylor vs Texas Christian in 2014 … but it’s hard to imagine that. It’s easy to imagine the Bills utilizing a physical, cautious, time-consuming game plan, while the Chiefs gain 10-15 yards at a time via Reid’s scientific offense.

Recommended bet: Under (54.5)