NFL Championship Sunday: AFC and NFC Title Game Previews, FanDuel Prop Bets, and Recommended Picks

The odds-makers of the Olympic Games will attest that it is easier to predict a medal count for Belgium than to forecast medals for China or the United States. There are too many variables involved in forecasting 100s of performances for bookmakers to do anything but offer history-based predictions. Small nations with tiny Olympic teams can be gauged down to a single athlete. The NFL’s sportsbooks pose a similar conundrum, at least when gamblers try to understand why a point spread has been set at a certain number for a big game. Try stubbornly to narrow down a point spread to a simple forecast of the next battle, and it proves impossible because main-market odds take so many scenarios into account. Bookmakers must balance all angles and cannot stake a spread on a single angle.

It would be ideal if there were betting odds on NFL Championship Sunday that narrowed things down to one player, one quarter, or one call so that grasping the storylines behind the sportsbook numbers was as easy as previewing Jamaica’s only bobsledding team, or Norway’s lone sprinter. Ah, but there are! Prop bets offered on Championship Sunday are more “serious” and less tradition-based than propositions on the Super Bowl’s live music or announcers’ verbiage. But that means pigskin junkies can dig in even more, without any chuckles.

Many bets listed in a book’s “More Wagers” tabs are prop bets, or proposition bets on outcomes adjunct to the final score. Even if you plan to make picks on the point spread or moneyline for Philadelphia Eagles versus San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs versus Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, studying the prop odds can clarify what bookmakers are thinking about the conference title games. Just perhaps, it can also be a way to identify where sportsbooks have gone wrong in setting lines on teams, coaches, and players.

Such as – will Philly’s pass rush continue to just get better against San Francisco, despite getting thinned out by injuries in 2022-23?

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (NFC Championship Game)

Philadelphia recorded 5 sacks in a blow-out of the New York Giants on Divisional Round weekend, helping to re-establish the Eagles as a dominant force in this winter’s NFL bracket. The rival Giants didn’t fit the profile of a team ripe for a lopsided playoff loss, and Saquon Barkley led a deceptively healthy ground game against the Eagles in the Iggles’ eventual 38-10 win from Saturday. But the NFC’s #1 seed used a mammoth edge rush to stifle the Big Blue on 3rd downs, paving the way for Jalen Hurts’ offense to build a crushing lead at halftime. But in defiance, the NFC Championship Game’s prop betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook favor the 49ers’ pass rush over that of the Eagles, even though San Francisco’s offensive line must perform with the disadvantage of an away stadium. San Francisco’s Nick Bosa is a (-166) “Yes” prop bet pick against just (+130) “No” gambling odds on the 49er defender’s prospect of sacking Hurts at least once in the game. Hassan Reddick, Philadelphia LB, can boast similar odds to record a sack against San Francisco, but several of the 49ers’ front-7 stand with more optimistic lines than their counterparts, and Bosa is a far pricier prop-betting wager than Reddick in the title tilt to post multiple QB sacks.

Given that NFL odds-makers think the Eagles are already (-2.5) point-spread favorites with a slightly-inferior edge rush, what does that say about Philly’s chances for a blow-out win if the Eagles live up to their resilient QB-hunting form of prior weeks? The 49ers’ play-calling tendencies and team identity can be pointed to as a more “neutral” angle behind the defensive prop bet odds, as San Fran is likely to rely on superstar dual threats like Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel instead of riding on the arm of QB Brock Purdy.

The prop betting Over/Under for McCaffery is set at under 60 total rushing yards in the championship game. But it’ll be a surprise if Philadelphia’s defense holds a dynamic ground game for the entire afternoon. Even a small halftime deficit would put Purdy in the unfamiliar, uncomfortable role of leading a comeback against a fine defense and hostile fans. Yet circumstances buoyed by a killer rush offense have saved Purdy’s hide up to this point.

Bettors under no circumstances should forget that Purdy, handicapped to throw for O/U (216.5) yards on Sunday, is the last of the NFL-level quarterbacks remaining on the wounded 49er depth chart. The Eagles’ ability to win without Hurts is in question following backup QB Gardner Minshew’s so-so performance in December. Nevertheless, San Francisco will be the team that absolutely can’t afford an injury to its starting QB.

Concerning the San Fran defense, the visitors could suffer from an early-frame disadvantage of not having faced many dual-threat QBs who were red-hot behind a humming offense and elite supporting cast. Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals have turned into a garbage fire, and the Rams and Seahawks have hardly been option-pigskin dynamos in 2022-23. There have been no scout-team quarterbacks at the 49ers’ practices with a skill set comparable to Hurts’ in any way. In fact, the team’s starting defense has been pressed into “self-scouting” duty in practice as the newcomer starting QB gets in as many reps with the top string as possible. San Francisco could see their defense fall into an “NCAA”-pattern in which it gives up 14 quick points, then settles in to play 3 far-better quarters.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (AFC Championship Game)

When the Buffalo Bills’ hired-gun linebacker Von Miller went down with a severe injury, the Kansas City Chiefs’ futures odds took an uptick. Now, Buffalo is eliminated from contention with or without Miller, and yet Kansas City cannot draw the top odds to win the upcoming Super Bowl thanks to an injury problem of the Chiefs’ own. QB Pat Mahomes was hobbled in a tough Divisional Round playoff win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend, potentially echoing the QB’s flagging health and effectiveness in the Chiefs’ unsuccessful Super Bowl bid against Tom Brady. The injuries suffered by Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman of Kansas City could compromise the team’s offense with Mahomes ailing

The Show-Me State’s real fly in the ointment may be that the 49ers could boast of even more momentum following a massive winning streak, making either NFC club a potential bear for the Chiefs in February. There is also no guarantee that Mahomes will conquer a healthy Joe Burrow, Cincinnati’s miracle-worker who appears poised for a decade of playoff feats.

In the meantime, the Cincinnati Bengals come into Sunday as a surprise favorite after a statement win in the snow. Cincy’s betting odds are due for marked changes in the days to come, even if the Bengals lose to the Chiefs in this Sunday’s conference championship game. Following an astounding 27-10 road blow-out of the formerly top-ranked Buffalo Bills, QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals are sure to become a popular Las Vegas pick to win the Super Bowl in 2023 and in subsequent seasons.

Cincinnati is a (-1.5) favorite in this week’s AFC title tilt, due in part to an injury to KC quarterback Pat Mahomes. The Bengals are also just a “dime” shy of leading the NFL in Super Bowl 57 odds, drawing a (+240) line to win the Lombardi next to Philly’s (+230) odds to win the grail. FanDuel handicaps O/U (48) total points in the Kansas City-Cincinnati game, set to kick off in a frigid but probably bone-dry Arrowhead Stadium.

So what do the AFC Championship Game’s prop betting odds tell us about the bookmakers’ take on Chiefs-Bengals. WagerBop’s NFL staff forecasted on Sunday evening that the “handicapped” spreads and totals on FanDuel’s AFC betting tabs would, in fact, not represent the usual odds-makers’ “calls” or predictions on the game, but rather median averages, balanced on a razor’s edge of success or failure for the Chiefs.

Supposing Pat Mahomes is too hobbled to serve as a dual threat on Sunday, there goes KC’s ultimate trump card on offense, and potentially the team’s Super Bowl hopes. Mahomes was massacred by Tom Brady the last time he tried to perform in the postseason on an injured hoof. On the bright side, we don’t assuredly know that Mahomes’ health status will render the MVP candidate as unproductive as he was in the Greatest Show on Earth (for the Buccaneers, anyway) following the last time the AFC title was grabbed by KC.

Burrow appears to be more effective as the pressure builds and the competition gets tougher, a rare trait in any star athlete, let alone in a franchise QB. The Bengals can out-score a limited Chiefs’ attack with reserves on the OL, but the club’s fantastic coaching can only take the unit so far if a delicate balancing act is not maintained. OL backups can be a secret weapon in the postseason as their fresh legs allow blocks to flourish when moving downhill. However, mistakes in execution or penalties taken early in the AFC Championship Game would result in keeping the Bengals’ offensive line on its heels. Maybe that is why Burrow’s O/U (276.5) pass-yardage prop betting market lags slightly behind the Mahomes (O/U (279.5)) number even though Burrow is far healthier.

The Chiefs’ superstar tight end Travis Kelce is the only Kansas City player drawing a favorite’s line to score the scrum’s opening touchdown. That is an illustration of the expected lack of wheels from Mahomes, given the QB’s glaring absence from the shortest odds in the proposition market. But the previously mentioned star TE is a 1-to-1 pick to score or fail to score a TD in the contest.

Tailback Joe Mixon’s modest O/U (56.5) handicap is a prop bet that shows bookmakers’ skepticism of the Bengals maintaining a solid running game with 3 backup linemen. But the probability of Cincy pulling out all the stops to beat Kansas City is a more “positive” reason to avoid the prop wager. Burrow’s O/U (17.5) rushing yards prop is an appealing bet by contrast, given how Burrow has improved his scrambling ability in his mid-20s in yet another rare achievement. The signal-caller was once afraid to do anything but eat the ball against Alabama’s pass rush, at least as an underclassman at LSU. Burrow’s new-and-improved ability to run for explosive plays against bigger, faster, more experienced National Football League defenses only a few years later is a miracle of modern training, dedication, and guts. Bookmakers are slow to acclimatize to the evolution of Burrow’s game, just as Super Bowl markets were slow to adjust to Cincinnati’s potential back in November.

A single nice play is all it would take for Burrow to net 18+ yards rushing, in a league in which opposing sacks do not count as a negative against rushing totals of a QB.

WagerBop’s NFC Championship Game Prop Bet Pick: Eagles to Win 1st Half (-136)

WagerBop’s AFC Championship Game Prop Bet Pick: Joe Burrow Over (17.5) Total Rush Yards