New Mexico Bowl Gambling Preview: Utah State vs North Texas

The New Mexico Bowl has managed to steer clear of lopsided games in the current decade. Apart from Utah State’s 21-6 win over the UTEP Miners, no New Mexico Bowl since 2012 has been determined by more than a single touchdown.

Yet as December 15th draws closer, there remains a fairly wide spread on USU and North Texas. In fact, the line on the New Mexico Bowl is the widest point spread on a December bowl game from now until BYU vs Western Michigan in the Idaho Potato Bowl on 12/21.

The spread has tightened to (-8) for favored Utah State since opening in double-digits.

Utah State went on an exhilarating hot streak in autumn that has debatably never ended. It just ran over a speed bump at Albertsons Stadium in the waning days of November.

Led by QB Jordan Love and a stout run defense, the Aggies bulldozed all MWC rivals during a 10-game unbeaten streak. The USU defensive backfield was a thief in the night against reinvigorated Hawaii, with colossal LB David Woodward joining talented junior CB D.J. Williams for an interception party that foiled QB Cole MacDonald.

The Aggies were blessed by a conference schedule that omitted Fresno State and Nevada. USU’s pair of featured running backs have been ballin’ as much as any 1-2 combo in the MWC, with junior Darwin Thompson and classmate Gerold Bright combining for 1750+ yards and 22 touchdowns.

Good defense, competent QB, capable running game. What could stop a buzz-saw like that? Try the Boise Blue.

Utah State has hurt Boise State in big games before, but it was evident by the 4th quarter of the crucial late-2018 tilt that the Broncos would likely prevail. Love was prolific on the blue turf but Bright faded for only 8 total yards as the squad was out-rushed 199 to 62.

It didn’t help that Utah State had gone to purgatory vs weak Colorado State in the week prior. In one of the most peculiar finishes of the season, an illegal-touching call (made accurately) prevented the Rams from notching an incredible upset win while preserving the Aggies’ hopes to win their division.

Meanwhile, former USU head coach Matt Wells is trying to play the middle against the back end. While Wells and current/former-ish Utah State OC David Yost  are headed out of town to start coaching Texas Tech, the pair are planning to be present on the Utah State sideline at the New Mexico Bowl.

Morale is always a question mark for a squad losing its coach before bowl season, particularly with the North Texas game approaching so quickly.

Press time update: Someone with a brain at USU has stepped in and said no.

We saw what happened to Oregon without Willie Taggart in the Las Vegas Bowl last season. North Texas can be a rather inconvenient opponent for a distracted team to play.

The Mean Green has to have a big chip on its shoulder right now. Not only is UNT the biggest “little guy” on the board for college football bowl season’s opening weekend, the team has worked hard to improve in key areas only to have their progress ignored on a national level.

Seth Littrell’s kids destroyed Arkansas 44-17 on September 15th. It was one of the nastiest beatings taken by an SEC program against a mid-major in a while. The Mean Green rubbed salt in the wound by putting punt-return specialist Keegan Brewer up to some serious monkey business that paid off in spades.

UNT looked darn near unbeatable at that point, with an obstinate defense (that would finish the season ranked #42 in the FBS) and a high-octane offense led by junior QB Mason Fine. The Mean Green followed up the Arkansas win by crowning a surprisingly-tough Liberty squad by 6 TDs.

Things began to slow down, mostly due to a mediocre ground game. Loren Easly had a good 5th game against Louisiana Tech, but the backfield as a whole gained only 3.5 yards per carry as the Bulldogs prevailed 29-27.

Not a moment too soon, the OL began blocking better. In Easly’s absence due to an ACL tear, emerging sophomore RB DeAndre Torrey rushed for about 500 yards and several scores in the final 3 games of the season.

The defense is more banged-up than scant injury reports are purporting to show, and in November the Mean Green had a hard time stopping Lane Kiffin’s FAU Owls, a bad Power-5 roster posing as a mid-major team.

But North Texas finally has the offense it wants…and neither Fine, nor Torrey, nor 1000-yard receiver Rico Bussey Jr. are planning to leave campus any time soon.

I am expecting a hard-fought game between an upstart and an established program that is rudderless and perturbed to have not won its conference.

That should lead to a close finish, and a point spread cover for the underdog.

Take UNT and (+8) points in ABQ.