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MLB Top 3, Bottom 3 Advanced Stats Edition

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Click this link for Wagerbop’s Original MLB Top 3, Bottom 3.

You know the drill. It’s high time we shine the spotlight on those doing things the right way and call out those slacking in the early going.

Statcast by MLB

Chances are you’ll be introduced to some new baseball statistics today, but fear not – we’ll ease you into it with explanations and links to Fangraphs explanations.

MLB ISO Leaders (and Losers)

The appropriately named ISO isolates extra-base hits into a quantitative display of a hitter’s power.

Per Fangraphs, the way to interpret a hitter’s ISO is the following:

Keep in mind that just like team batting averages, a good team ISO will be lower than a good individual ISO. An elite lineup might have 4 or 5 guys who can mash – not 9.

Braves .181

The defending champs are the most powerful team in baseball to open 2022 – leading the league in ISO and hitting the 3rd-most home runs (20).

Atlanta hitters love to explore the power allies, hitting the most doubles in baseball with 38.

5’8 Ozzie Albies leads the team with 6 dingers – building on his 30-home run season in 2021.

Angels .170

The Los Angeles Angels are 9-7 but would have more wins if MLB games became Home Run derbys. LA has mashed the 2nd-most homers in baseball with 21 – paced by Mike Trout with 4.

Unfortunately, Trout is hitting a lot of solo shots. The superstar has managed to accumulate just 5 RBIs despite hitting 4 homers.

Blue Jays .169

The Jays have knocked out the most HR in baseball with 22. Of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the offensive leader of this bunch – but Toronto is not lacking for power at any position.

Orioles .083 (worst)

Baltimore has played 16 games and has hit the fewest HR in baseball with 6, 24 doubles, and 1 triple.

Reds .090 (2nd-worst)

The Cincinnati Reds finally snapped their 11-game losing streak but still have the 3rd-fewest HR in baseball with 9 and the 2nd-fewest 2-baggers with 18. 3 triples is what lifts the Reds’ ISO above that of Baltimore.

Tigers .093 (3rd-worst)

For a 6-9 team (which isn’t terrible) Detroit’s offensive numbers are abysmal. The Tigers have hit the 2nd-fewest HR in baseball with 7 and are tied with Cincy for the 2nd-fewest doubles in the game at 18.

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in K% for Hitters

Of course, having the ability to bash the ball does no good if your strikeout rate soars because of it. Although the tolerance to high K rates has grown, good offenses are still the ones who can produce without wasting too many at-bats.

The best of the best boast lofty power numbers while still maintaining a respectable OBP and a healthy K/BB rate.

Rangers/Mets 19.4%

These two offenses are tied for the fewest strikeouts in the Majors.

Hitters who refuse to strike out are a nightmare for opposing pitchers. At-bats drag on as pitchers are forced to locate pitch after pitch after pitch.

The Mets are clicking on all cylinders right now, leading the Majors in wins. Unfortunately, only the offense is working for Texas. Their rotation couldn’t pitch crack to Rick James and the team is 5-10 because of it.

Cardinals 19.5%

The Cardinals are another one of those pesky offenses who refuse to lay down and die.

St Louis has 5 regular players with K rates below 20% – a modern marvel.

Dylan Carlson (11.5%), Tommy Edman (12.5%), Paul Goldschmidt (17.5%), Tyler O’Neill (19.6%), and Nolan Arenado (19.7%) are fighters, baby!

Reds 28.3% (worst)

The anti-Cardinals are the Cincinnati Reds. Well over one-quarter of Reds’ at-bats end with a whimper and a slow walk back to the dugout.

New York Times

You know why hitters are always staring awkwardly back into the outfield after they strike out? It’s because they can’t stand to look their teammates in the eyes after utterly failing at the dish. I always thought it was to see the replay. Nope, it’s shame.

Orioles 27.0% (2nd-worst)

 

We’ve discussed at length how the Orioles are fairly unlucky when it comes to batted balls falling in for hits. Here’s the thing, though – they aren’t a great offense.

It’s not like Baltimore would be scoring double digits each game if not for poor luck. The Orioles are still pretty trash – the bad luck just makes it worse.

A team strikeout rate in the high-20s is pretty miserable and makes sustaining rallies an uphill battle.

Angels 26.2% (3rd-worst)

Ahh, hello Angels. The 2nd-most powerful team in the MLB is 28th in strikeout rate. This helps to explain why although LA can destroy the baseball – they are just 2 games above .500 and scoring an average amount of runs.

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in BB% for Hitters

Mariners/DBacks 11.7%

For a struggling offense, walks are the greatest catalyst. Gaining free baserunners without needing a hit to fall is an exceptional advantage – and yet an area in which the best teams excel.

The Mariners and DBacks are both experts in drawing free passes. For the Mariners, it appears to be working as Seattle is 10-6, in 1st place, and scoring lots of runs to begin 2022.

The DBacks, however, are 6-10 with one of the worst offenses in baseball. Perhaps opposing pitchers have found that being delicate with Arizona’s offense and avoiding meatballs is the way to go as they’ve proven they cannot capitalize on walks.

Dodgers 11.5%

This should be no surprise. The Dodgers do everything well. They have so many hitters to which you don’t want to make mistakes that you wind up walking batters as you tiptoe around the lineup.

Royals 5.6% (worst)

No team draws fewer walks than the Kansas City Royals. Longtime Royals catcher Salvador Perez is famous for his free-swinging nature, but he is hardly the only impatient hitter in this lineup.

Red Sox 6.0% (2nd-worst)

In a departure from recent years, the Red Sox no longer work the counts and draw walks.

A staple of Northeast baseball (especially the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry) for the past 20 years has been a lineup saturated by hitters who work deep counts, foul off numerous pitches, and make the pitcher throw 60 pitches by the 3rd inning.

Perhaps due to an increasing tendency to abandon contact hitting in the MLB, Boston no longer follows this offensive philosophy.

White Sox 6.2% (3rd-worst)

If their leadoff man Tim Anderson is representative of the whole, the Sox are a free-swinging, happy-go-lucky bunch.

Chicago doesn’t wait for pitchers to get deep into counts, they swing early and often.

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in Clutch Hitting

Fangraphs’ Clutch statistic for hitters measures how well hitters perform in high-leverage situations – relative to their average performance.

Click the link above to read up on high-leverage situations, but Fangraphs uses win expectancy to determine this. If a given outcome of a play could swing WE drastically – that is high leverage.

For example, a 1st inning at-bat with no one on would not have much impact on the outcome of the game. A bases loaded at-bat in a tie game in the 8th inning certainly would.

To gain perspective on this new stat, here is a reference chart from Fangraphs.

Brewers 1.41

The Milwaukee Brewers are the most clutch hitting team in the MLB – posting stats that are “great” in high-leverage situations compared to their regular play.

The Brewers have failed to make a deep playoff run lately and clutch hitting is certainly needed to make that happen. Could this be the season for Milwaukee or is this April clutchness a minor blip in the radar?

Nationals 1.04

This is an interesting one. We typically think of clutch teams as being good, but the Nationals are rewriting the narrative on that.

White Sox 0.88

This one doesn’t surprise me one bit. The Sox are so swaggy … no spot is too big for these guys.

Rays -1.32 (worst)

The Tampa Bay Rays own the unwanted distinction of being the worst clutch-hitting team in the Majors.

Tampa is a solid 9-8 to begin the year but could have an extra win or two with some timely hits as the Rays have lost 3 games by 1 run and an additional 2 games by 2 runs.

Braves -1.22 (2nd-worst)

Perhaps Atlanta used up all of their clutchness when they won the World Series last year.

Reds -1.18 (3rd-worst)

Duh, lol

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in Team Average Exit Velocity

Since MLB stadiums began installing sensors in the early 2010s, the nation has fallen in love with exit velocity off the bat of Major League hitters.

Pitch speed was all the rage in the 2000s once radar guns became commonplace. Exit velo is the next logical progression in StatCast statistics.

Yankees 91.7 MPH

The New York Yankees roster some of the largest-frames humans in baseball so it only makes sense they hit the ball the hardest.

Aaron Judge could be an NFL tight end at 6’7 282. Giancarlo Stanton is right there too at 6’6 245. Compare these two sluggers to Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna of the Braves who combine to weigh just 370 pounds.

Hard hit balls, especially in a small ballpark, lead to a plethora of scoring. The Yankees are consistently toward the top of the league leaderboard in home runs and runs per game. New York is tied for 8th with 17 homers hit.

White Sox 90.7 MPH

When healthy – and that’s a major IF – the Sox have the scariest offense in the American League.

Led by Tim Anderson at the top, you’ve got former-MVP Jose Abreu, 5-tool studs Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Yasmani Grandal. A.J. Pollock is one of the lesser-known hitters in this lineup and he’s a career .281 hitter with 126 career bombs.

Blue Jays 90.5 MPH

The Blue Jays have some big boppers. Little Vlad is a stud, of course. George Springer is the king of leadoff homers. Bo Bichette’s bat has some pop. Lourdes Gurriel can reach the seats with ease. Matt Chapman is good for 20.

Ever watch a game in the Rogers Centre and notice how the ball skips so fast on the artificial turf? I’ve seen a ball go under the shortstop’s glove and skip all the way through the gap and hit the wall.

The Jays give defenders nightmares and make their home field seem so tiny as they routinely bash the ball around the yard.

Mariners/Reds/Mets 86.5 MPH (tied for worst)

Aww, that’s cute. Did you coordinate that?

The Mariners (decent offense), Reds (terrible offense), and Mets (decent offense) hit the weakest balls of the bat of any teams in the Major Leagues.

While the top of the exit velo chart always contains strong, powerful offenses the back end of the chart doesn’t necessarily contain bad teams. There are plenty of ways to score in baseball – doesn’t have to be the long ball or gap shots.

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in Barrels/PA Rate

What?! They can track the bat and ball well enough to see if a hit was barrelled?! Not quite.

Fangraphs defines a barrel as a batted ball at least 98 MPH off the bat whose exit velo and launch angle would result in a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

If this seems too complex for you, don’t worry about it. Just know barrelled balls are rockets – a very desirable result to an at bat.

White Sox 8.0%

The Sox square up the baseball in a league-high 8% of their plate appearances. On average, they would expect half of these to result in hits – many as home runs.

This checks out as the Sox boast a high ISO and the 2nd-best average exit velo in the MLB.

Yankees 7.1%

The New York Yankees have the highest average exit velocity in the Major Leagues, so it only makes sense they’d be a top-2 team in barrel rate.

Braves 6.4%

The Braves may not be clutch but they sure mash the baseball around their fancy new ballpark.

Padres 3.4% (worst)

Having to put Tatis on the shelf doesn’t help. Who knew that Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer weren’t good at barreling up the baseball?

Pirates 3.9% (2nd-worst)

You ever feel bad for teams with poor records before you realize it’s because they are terrible at every phase of the game? That’s Pittsburgh in a nutshell.

Rangers/Rays 4.0% (3rd-worst)

The Rays certainly aren’t barreling up any baseballs in high-leverage spots, that’s for sure.

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in O-Swing%

Pitch tracking technology in the MLB is easily capable of determining whether a pitch is heading toward the strike zone or outside of it. We can even get accurate pitch information on batted balls that never reach the catcher’s mitt.

MLB Pitch-Tracking Technology on display

Two statistics that have developed due to this technology are Z-Swing% and O-Swing%. Z pitches are those in the strike zone and O are those outside of it. These stats are a simple ratio of the pitches swung at to the pitches seen of each type.

In a perfect world, your team’s batter would offer at 0 of the pitches outside of the strike zone. Of course, 0% (or even close to it) is not realistically achievable. Here are the teams best (and worst) at laying off chase pitches.

Brewers 26.1%

The Milwaukee Brewers chase the fewest offerings in the Major Leagues. The Brewers don’t get themselves out with stupid swings. They force opposing pitchers to live in the zone which means more meatballs on the menu.

DBacks/Giants 26.3%

For all the Diamondbacks’ flaws, they excel in this area. Arizona is not chase-happy. Neither is San Fran, of course, but we expect the team who won 107 games last year to have pretty solid fundamentals at the dish.

Red Sox 36.6% (worst)

This stat explains why the Red Sox own the league’s 2nd-worst walk rate – they chase everything.

Boston routinely bails out the opposing pitchers who don’t even need to throw strikes to get outs.

Yankees 34.9% (2nd-worst)

Right behind Boston are their fierce rivals – the New York Yankees. It’ll be interesting to watch Boston-NY square off in a battle of who can get whom to chase more often.

White Sox 34.7% (3rd-worst)

The Chicago White Sox hit the ball hard – sacrificing their plate discipline to do so. The Sox do not walk very often (3rd-least in the league). Instead, they prefer to swing from the heels every single pitch in an attempt to hit the elusive 5-run homer.

MLB Leaders (and Losers) in O-Contact%

O-Swing% is the percentage of non-strikes hitters offered at. O-Contact% is the percentage of those swings which result in contact. While a high O-Swing% is not desirable because it means you chase a lot, a high O-Contact% is great because it means you are hitting the pitches you swing at.

Guardians 70.9%

When Cleveland hitters leave the zone, they often make contact. This helps explain the early-season offensive explosion from the Guardians which placed them top-3 in runs scored per game.

Mets 68.8%

The Mets don’t have the most wins in baseball for nothin’. Making this much contact on pitches outside of the zone makes it incredibly difficult to strike out New York hitters.

Rockies 65.7%

If you play in Coors Field, why the heck not. Flick your barrel out there on a slider or curveball and you just might “bloop” a gap shot 360 feet.

Giants 55.1% (worst)

It is a good thing the Giants offer at very few bad pitches – they are terrible at hitting them.

Reds 56.4% (2nd-worst)

They can’t even hit pitches in the strike zone. What makes you think they’d have any success chasing pitcher’s pitches?

Marlins 57.6% (3rd-worst)

The Marlins chase the 7th-most out-of-the-zone pitches in baseball. Considering they rarely make contact – this is not good.

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