MLB Favorites are Winning at a Historic Pace

8,614 dollars.

Favored teams in the MLB this season have won 595 games and lost 353. This works out to a 62.8% win rate and a whopping $8,614 in profits.

Well yeah, they’re favorites. They’re supposed to win.

Ok, true. Favorites are supposed to win more often than they lose, but they are not supposed to win enough to make up for the long odds you must lay to back them.

If Vegas figures a team has a 60% chance to win, they will assign that team a line of -150 to compensate. In actuality, the line will be more like -165 because of the 10% vig that books always charge.

Betting strictly favorites will rarely turn a profit, just like betting only unders, only overs, only home teams, or only road teams will soon leave you broke.

Don’t believe me? Killersports has MLB betting data dating back to the 2004 season. I looked up the profits that a bettor would have netted betting strictly favorites during the first 2 months of the season.

Only twice in that 16-year span would these bettors have profited. 2019 is one of these 2 years.

Year	Fave Win %	Fave Profit
2019	62.8%	$8,614
2018	58.6%	-$1,817
2017	57.4%	-$579
2016	59.4%	$2,460
2015	55.2%	-$2,590
2014	55.6%	-$3,403
2013	58.0%	-$269
2012	56.3%	-$3,303
2011	55.0%	-$5,326
2010	58.7%	-$2,140
2009	56.0%	-$2,625
2008	55.2%	-$4,470
2007	58.5%	-$1,070
2006	57.9%	-$695
2005	58.0%	-$575
2004	54.5%	-$8,160
Total	57.4%	-$25,948

This isn’t a typo or an adding error. Bettors who only bet March, April, or May favorites do not remain MLB bettors for very long. Those bettors threw away over $30,000 from 2004 to 2015.

Why Are MLB Favorites Winning So Much?

What is accounting for the favorites’ large uptick in wins? Is Vegas getting softer with their lines? I can assure you this is not the case.

This following table sorts from toughest to easiest the early season lines (before June) that favorites were assigned since 2004. Notice how 2018 and 2019 are 2 of the 3 toughest years to be a favorite.

Year	Fave Line
2018	-155.6
2010	-151.4
2019	-150.5
2004	-148.6
2006	-147.6
2007	-145.9
2016	-145.3
2005	-144.8
2017	-143.5
2013	-143.4
2012	-141.4
2011	-140.5
2009	-140.0
2008	-139.9
2014	-138.1
2015	-134.5
Average	-144.5

The past 2 seasons have seen extremely rigid lines against favorites. You would think that underdogs would be profiting heavily from this shift but it is favorites making the money in 2019.

I alluded to this earlier, but favorites have played with an average line right around -150 this season. You need to win 60% of the time to break even at -150. This year’s faves are winning nearly 63% of their games which may not seem high enough to generate huge profits, but is more than enough.

3% can be the difference between tattered clothes and fancy livin’ in the sports betting world.

So if soft lines aren’t to blame, what else has changed? A major factor is that favorites have scored more runs per game this season than they have since Killersports began recording data.

Take a look at this table. It shows the runs per game that favorites have scored, the runs they have allowed, and the differential each season since 2004.

The highest runs per game scored by favorites and the highest run differential per game are both in 2019.

Year	Fave Runs	Opp Runs	Diff
2019	5.23	4.16	+1.07
2018	4.93	3.95	+0.98
2017	5.10	4.19	+0.91
2016	4.87	4.07	+0.80
2015	4.58	3.91	+0.67
2014	4.36	3.78	+0.58
2013	4.46	3.83	+0.63
2012	4.66	3.96	+0.70
2011	4.59	3.98	+0.61
2010	4.79	3.98	+0.81
2009	4.96	4.27	+0.69
2008	5.00	4.32	+0.68
2007	5.15	4.45	+0.70
2006	5.12	4.58	+0.54
2005	4.92	4.29	+0.63
2004	5.16	4.46	+0.70
Average	4.85	4.14	+0.71

Where Can We Send our Thank You Cards?

Which MLB teams are the most heavily favored? Who can we thank for these awesome profits? As you will see in a moment, the answers to these two questions are completely different.

This first table lists the most heavily favored teams of 2019. Both the “Avg Line” and “Profit” columns are calculated only for games in which that team was favored.

I included the profits so you could easily see that the most heavily favored teams were not necessarily the ones leading the way to $8,614 in profits.

Team	Avg Line	Profit
Astros	-177.3	$1,137
Dodgers	-160.1	$1,855
Yankees	-156.6	$162
Red Sox	-156.2	-$648
Rays	-145.5	$418
Indians	-136.8	-$1,078
Cubs	-127.3	$1,396
Twins	-124.9	$1,478

Both the Red Sox and Indians have failed to play up to lofty expectations this season and have lost bettors money as favorites. The Yankees and Rays are both playing tremendous baseball but neither has the win percentage to profit consistently with an average line near -150.

The most profitable teams are not necessarily the heaviest favorites. Here is a list of the top profiting favorites of 2019. These are the top-8 teams we can thank for making us so rich.

Team	Profit	Win %	# of Games
Dodgers	$1,755	71.0%	62
Twins	$1,378	76.5%	34
Cubs	$1,296	72.1%	43
Phillies	$1,292	70.5%	44
Astros	$1,037	69.4%	62
Brewers	$1,004	68.4%	38
Rockies	$942	68.8%	32
Rangers	$671	72.2%	18

There are 21 teams in the MLB this season which are profitable as favorites. This is incredible. A quick search tells me this is the most in recent history.

So we now know who keeps winning, but who keeps losing to allow these outstanding profits?

Below are the teams with the toughest lines against in 2019. Just like with the favorites, the most profitable teams to bet against are not necessarily the largest underdogs.

Team	Avg Opp Line
Orioles	-198.8
Marlins	-166.7
Tigers	-157.8
Royals	-148.1
White Sox	-147.1
Blue Jays	-134.8
Rangers	-132.1
Giants	-131.2

Those planning on betting against Baltimore better be ready to lay $200. The O’s are mired in the middle of another abysmal season and receive no respect from Vegas oddsmakers.

Baltimore does lose a lot, but it takes a 66.7% win percentage to profit with a line -200. That’s darn near impossible to sustain.

This following table lists the 8 most profitable teams of 2019 to back favorites against.

Team	Profits Against	Opp Win %	# of Games
Royals	$1,733	73.2%	56
Mariners	$1,229	67.3%	49
Orioles	$934	71.0%	62
Cubs	$917	75%	20
Blue Jays	$884	66.7%	48
Reds	$783	66.7%	39
Giants	$710	65.3%	49
Rockies	$622	67.7%	31

We can thank the Royals, Mariners, and Orioles for serving up the majority of losses to favorites this season.

After feeling these anti-Baltimore vibes from Vegas this year, I became curious as to which MLB team was considered the “most automatic loss” of all time. I compiled a list of the top-8 teams in history based on the average line of their opponents.

This year’s Orioles team is the 2nd-worst team in the database according to this metric. This year’s Marlins just missed the cut at 9th.

Team (Year)	Avg Opp Line
Royals (2006)	-202.4
Orioles (2019)	-198.8
Astros (2013)	-189.0
Royals (2005)	-181.6
Marlins (2018)	-174.0
White Sox (2017)	-172.1
Royals (2018)	-167.3
Orioles (2018)	-166.9

Should We Bet Large MLB Favorites?

As much as we attempt to separate our own predictions from the Vegas lines, there is comfort in backing a large favorite on the moneyline.

Is this wise to do? Should I only focus on small favorites or is it better to back large ones? I will attempt to answer those questions by compiling a list of 2019’s best favorites of -150 or more.

Team	Profit	Win %	# of Games
Dodgers	$2,255	86.5%	37
Phillies	$770	81.2%	16
Rockies	$730	90%	10
Twins	$590	76.5%	17
A’s	$565	81.8%	11
Astros	$510	70.7%	41
Rays	$445	71.4%	28
Braves	$345	68.4%	19

Fewer opportunities and a higher necessary win percentage to make money render consistently profiting as a -150 favorite very difficult.

Only the Dodgers have managed to profit over $1,000 through the first 2 months of 2019. Compare this to the 6 teams that had profited over $1,000 when we looked at all favorites.

What if I only bet very large MLB favorites? -200 or more? Is that smart?

I had the same question. Here is each profitable favorite of -200 or more this season. All other teams are -EV plays when you lay $200 on them.

Team	Profit	Win %	# of Games
Twins	$680	90%	10
Astros	$310	75%	20
Rockies	$200	100%	2
Braves	$200	100%	2
Dodgers	$180	72.7%	11
Indians	$150	75%	8
Phillies	$100	100%	1
Cardinals	$100	100%	1
Cubs	$60	75%	4

It is even more difficult to turn a profit with -200 odds than it is with -150 odds. A few of the teams on this list have only played 1 or 2 games as a large favorite.

It is very difficult to win two-thirds of your games and consistently turn profits in the long-term when you are laying $200 each night out.

Where Do This Year’s Teams Rank Historically?

The title of this piece indicates we are witnessing history. We are in the middle of only the 2nd profitable March/April/May for favorites since 2004. That is big, but 2019 is relevant for additional reasons.

I was curious to see which team was the most profitable favorite in the database. I wanted to see if any 2019 teams were on pace to break into the top 8. Here is what I found.

Team (Year)	Profit	Win %	# of Games
Brewers (2011)	$3,595	72.1%	111
Red Sox (2018)	$3,165	72.0%	132
Pirates (2015)	$2,597	67.8%	115
Indians (2013)	$2,451	72.5%	69
Angels (2015)	$2,271	68.2%	88
A’s (2018)	$2,248	69.6%	79
Angels (2014)	$2,218	67.0%	112
Nationals (2012)	$2,127	66.4%	110

The 2011 Brewers cleaned up – winning over 72% of their 111 games as favorites and winning bettors over $3,500. The 2019 Dodgers could rival this number provided they continue winning at the same torrid pace.

As I mentioned earlier, 2019 teams have not even played half of their schedule so we cannot directly compare profits. We can divide profit by the number of games played and get profit per game.

This following table displays the same data, using profit per game instead of total profit. 2019 teams are included in this list.

I wanted to avoid teams that went 1-0 or 2-0 as favorites and had a profit per game of $100. I instituted a minimum games qualifier. You must have played at least 10 games as a favorite or at least 4 if you are a 2019 team.

Team (Year)	Profit/G	Win %	# of Games
Rays (2006)	$46.90	76.29%	21
Twins (2019)	$40.53	76.5%	34
Royals (2019)	$39.71	71.4%	7
Rangers (2019)	$37.28	72.2%	18
Indians (2013)	$35.52	72.5%	69
Rays (2005)	$34.29	71.4%	14
Reds (2016)	$33.81	70.4%	27
Brewers (2011)	$32.39	72.1%	111

I find it interesting that the 2011 Brewers barely cracked our list of the top-8 favorites ranked by profit per game. This shows that Milwaukee was not the most efficient favorite, they simply played a ton of games in which they were favored.

That first list felt a bit cheap to me. Most of the teams in the top 8 had played fewer than 30 games. I figured that upping the minimum game requirements would give us a better picture of which favorites turned long-term profits.

Below is the same table but with a minimum of 50 games played as favorite in a season (or 20 so far in 2019).

Team (Year)	Profit/G	Win %	# of Games
Twins (2019)	$40.53	76.5%	34
Indians (2013)	$35.52	72.5%	69
Brewers (2011)	$32.39	72.1%	111
Cubs (2019)	$30.14	72.1%	43
Rockies (2019)	$29.44	68.8%	32
Phillies (2019)	$29.36	70.5%	44
A’s (2018)	$28.46	69.6%	79
Dodgers (2019)	$28.31	71.0%	62

As far as every-night favorites go, this year’s Twins team is the first to profit over $40 a game. This year’s Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, and Dodgers also make this list – showing how historic the early portion of 2019 has been.

Best Teams to Back Favorites Against of All Time

Targeting particular teams works in reverse, too. Rather than always betting a large favorite – say, the Dodgers – you could always bet against a large dog – like Baltimore.

I compiled a list of the best teams to back large favorites against. I considered “large” to be anytime your opponent’s line is -150 or more. Here are the top-8 teams in our database against which favorites of -150 or more have racked up the most profits.

Team (Year)	Profit Against	Opp Win %	# of Games
Orioles (2018)	$3,282	80.2%	86
Astros (2012)	$2,821	76.7%	90
Mets (2017)	$2,485	86.8%	38
Rockies (2014)	$2,385	82.2%	45
DBacks (2004)	$2,370	81.0%	58
Braves (2015)	$1,993	76.8%	56
Astros (2013)	$1,908	73.0%	122
Cubs (2012)	$1,826	74.6%	63

Last year’s 47-win Orioles team was the most profitable team to bet against since 2004. No surprise there.

Once again, I feel bad that 2019 teams are left out because profit is a cumulative stat. I found profit against per game and used that to rank my new top 8 which can now include teams in 2019.

I used a very small minimum games requirement, only 10 (or 4 for this season). Here it is!

Team (Year)	Profit Against/G	Opp Win %	# of Games
Cardinals (2017)	$80.14	92.3%	14
Braves (2010)	$78.33	91.7%	12
Brewers (2008)	$74.50	90%	10
Brewers (2012)	$74.00	90%	10
Nationals (2019)	$68.75	81.5%	8
Mets (2017)	$65.39	86.8%	38
Royals (2014)	$58.21	85.7%	14
Mariners (2019)	$57.89	84.2%	19

This year’s Nationals and Mariners both make the list. The Mariners have fallen so terribly hard after a hot start to 2019.

I ran into the same problem as before, a cheap list. Most of the teams on the above list rarely opposed favored teams. Smaller sample sizes make abnormally high profits per game more probable. I need to up the minimum requirement.

This next table is the same but now with a minimum of 45 games played or 15 this year.

Team (Year)	Profit/G	Opp Win %	# of Games
Mariners (2019)	$57.89	84.2%	19
Rockies (2014)	$53.00	82.2%	45
DBacks (2004)	$40.86	81.0%	58
Orioles (2018)	$38.16	80.2%	86
Braves (2015)	$35.59	76.8%	56
Astros (2012)	$31.34	76.7%	90
Tigers (2017)	$31.09	76.1%	46
Blue Jays (2019)	$30.42	75%	24
Cubs (2012)	$28.98	74.6%	63

This really puts into perspective how soft the Mariners are. Of all teams that have ever opposed favorites frequently, the 2019 Mariners are the easiest to beat.

We should go one step further. Since I was already looking up stats for -200 favorites, I figured it wouldn’t be too difficult to find which underdog teams are the best to back -200 faves against.

This list breaks down the 8 best teams to back large favorites (-200 or more) against ranked by “total profits against” throughout the season.

Team (Year)	Profit Against	Opp Win %	# of Games
Astros (2012)	$1,609	80.4%	46
DBacks (2004)	$1,600	85.3%	34
White Sox (2018)	$1,525	80.0%	45
Mets (2017)	$1,400	100%	14
DBacks (2010)	$1,395	90.0%	20
Orioles (2018)	$1,360	79.2%	48
Pirates (2004)	$1,350	87.0%	23
Royals (2018)	$1,235	79.6%	49

Of course, I am eager to see where 2019’s teams stack up against these all-time great losers. This list calculates the “profit against per game”, making the number of games played against -200 favorites irrelevant. As always, I set my initial minimum at 10 games or 4 for this season.

Team (Year)	Profit Against/G	Opp Win %	# of Games
Mets (2017)	$100.00	100%	14
Rockies (2014)	$79.67	93.3%	15
Cubs (2014)	$76.15	92.3%	13
Reds (2008)	$74.23	92.3%	13
Reds (2017)	$72.50	91.7%	12
White Sox (2014)	$71.82	90.9%	11
DBacks (2010)	$69.75	90%	20
Mariners (2007)	$69.00	90%	10

Poor 2017 Mets. Vegas backed a Mets’ opponent with -200 odds 14 times that year and the large favorite won in all 14 of those contests. This is, by far, the softest team against which to bet in our database.

I want to close by making this list a bit more exclusive. I want to see the real long-term losers rise to the top. This is the same chart but with a minimum of 25 games played against -200 favorites or 10 for this season.

Team (Year)	Profit Against/G	Opp Win %	# of Games
DBacks (2004)	$47.06	85.3%	34
Astros (2011)	$39.62	80.8%	26
Reds (2016)	$35.16	80.6%	31
Astros (2012)	$34.98	80.4%	46
White Sox (2018)	$33.89	80%	45
Tigers (2018)	$30.28	80.6%	36
Pirates (2008)	$29.26	77.8%	27
Pirates (2006)	$28.65	76.9%	26

The ‘04 Diamondbacks kept popping up in a lot of my lists. Arizona was an excellent punching bag that year – losing over 85% of their games against -200 favorites – granting bettors nearly $50 per game.

MLB betting systems do not have to be complicated. Sometimes all it takes is to pick a hot team to bet every night. I am also a big fan of picking a soft team and betting against them.

Find your team and I’ll see you on top!