Earlier this month, I reported that huge underdogs were playing uncharacteristically well. Not since 2004 have teams with lines of +200 or longer been profitable on the moneyline for an entire season.
The numbers suggested that a collapse was probable, but longshot clubs have held strong. Their 9-13 record grants them a 40.9% winning percentage and profits of $730. Compare this to the average April net since 2004 for these teams which is -$191.
Whether the trend will continue into the month of May is a question that all baseball bettors (including this one) are attempting to answer. I will offer this much – May has traditionally been the second-worst month to bet +200-dogs.
Before blindly backing these longshots, take a look at how they have fared on the moneyline each May since 2004.
| Season | Record (Win %) | Profit |
| 2018 | 7-26 (21.2%) | -$1,050 |
| 2017 | 1-13 (7.1%) | -$1,090 |
| 2016 | 2-18 (10%) | -$1,375 |
| 2015 | 0-4 (0%) | -$400 |
| 2014 | 0-5 (0%) | -$500 |
| 2013 | 5-6 (45.5%) | $535 |
| 2012 | 1-3 (25%) | -$70 |
| 2011 | 0-3 (0%) | -$300 |
| 2010 | 7-16 (30.4%) | $60 |
| 2009 | 1-6 (14.3%) | -$370 |
| 2008 | 2-6 (25%) | -$190 |
| 2007 | 2-14 (12.5%) | -$950 |
| 2006 | 3-16 (15.8%) | -$850 |
| 2005 | 2-9 (18.2%) | -$500 |
| 2004 | 7-12 (36.8%) | $270 |
| Total | 40-157 (20.3%) | -$6,780 |
We have to look all the way back to 2013 to find the last time huge dogs were profitable in May. With just 3 winning Mays in the past 15 years, betting +200-dogs in the spring is surely a -EV move.
It only makes sense to bet large underdogs this May if we can find a tangible difference between 2019 and years past. I want to explore how these teams have been so profitable early this season.
Finding Who is Responsible for the Wins
+200-underdogs are relatively rare. Since 2004, 1,793 teams have been given this line by Vegas, averaging out to just under 20 per month (far less than one per day).
In any given MLB season, only a handful of teams will ever play with lines of +200 or longer. Most teams will never even approach a +200 line. So far in 2019, only 8 different teams have been granted lines of +200 or longer, 5 of which have won at least 1 game as a longshot.
We can thank the Orioles, Twins, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Rangers for the April profits this season. Here is how those numbers breakdown by team.
| Team | Record | Profit |
| Orioles | 5-6 | $625 |
| Tigers | 0-2 | -$200 |
| Marlins | 1-1 | $103 |
| Rangers | 1-1 | $103 |
| Royals | 0-2 | -$200 |
| Dbacks | 0-1 | -$100 |
| Twins | 1-0 | $200 |
| Blue Jays | 1-0 | $205 |
| Total | 9-13 | $730 |
Without the Orioles, these longshot clubs would not be very profitable. Winning 5 times in 11 tries as a +200-dog, Baltimore is putting longshot bettors on its back.
I am very hesitant to buy into a betting system that revolves around one team. I like to see consistent contributions across the board.
I felt the need to look back at other Aprils in which one longshot “put the system on its back” and see how those bets fared in the month of May and beyond.
Here is what I found.
In the chart, the “# of Teams (W)” column represents the number of different teams who won as a +200-underdog in April that year along with how many games they won.
The “Biggest Contributor” column identifies the team which won the most games as a +200-dog in April that year and the percentage of the total +200-dog wins this team contributed. For example, 9 +200-dogs have won in 2019 – 5 of these were the Baltimore Orioles.
Finally, the “Profits >= May” column shows the total profits resulting from betting longshots in May and beyond that season.
| Season | # of Teams (W)* | Biggest Contributor* | Profits >= May* |
| 2019 | 5 (9) | Orioles, 55.6% | — |
| 2018 | 7 (9) | Marlins, 33.3% | -$7,480 |
| 2017 | 3 (3) | — | -$3,950 |
| 2016 | 3 (4) | Rockies, 50% | -$1,040 |
| 2015 | — | — | -$320 |
| 2014 | 1 (1) | Astros, 100% | -$2,115 |
| 2013 | 3 (3) | — | $65 |
| 2012 | 1 (1) | Cubs, 100% | -$1,855 |
| 2011 | — | — | -$1,005 |
| 2010 | 5 (8) | Pirates, 37.5% | -$2,705 |
| 2009 | — | — | -$1,420 |
| 2008 | — | — | -$1,165 |
| 2007 | 2 (5) | Nationals, 80% | -$1,315 |
| 2006 | 1 (2) | Rays, 100% | -$435 |
| 2005 | 1 (1) | Rays, 100% | -$1,280 |
| 2004 | 6 (6) | — | $450 |
| Average | 2.4 (3.3) | — | -$1,705 |
* see above for explanations
I know the sample sizes are relatively small, but it appears that the more teams that win as +200-dogs in April, the worse they do for the remainder of the season.
In 2018, 7 teams combined for 9 wins in April only to see +200-dogs post the worst season in database history.
Back in 2010, 5 teams combined for 8 wins in April and then longshots went on to record the third-worst post-April numbers in our sample.
The 4 best seasons for post-April longshots in our sample were 2004, 2006, 2013, and 2015. What did each of these seasons have in common? No team “put the system on its back”. Contributions were spread out in April.
Contributions are anything but spread out this season, with Baltimore claiming over half of the major upsets. I would avoid betting on +200-underdogs in May and beyond this season.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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