Matchday 10 Betting Tips: Liverpool Owns EPL Table…But Not the O/U Line

Like a football club surfacing after a dead spell brought-upon by 250,000 college football predictions  spring Champions League fatigue, your humble WagerBop pundit won his marquee Monday EPL bet and is eager to tackle a new week of odds.

But I also made a faux pas in my general soccer betting tip for Matchday 9, carrying-on about the fabled “52.4%” mark on 50/50 lines – a mark of success that bears little relationship to the ins-and-outs of 3-way moneyline gambling. When a drawn outcome is as likely as any other, the punter is aiming for a success rate of something closer to 35%-40% when speculating on wins, losses, and stalemates.

I’ve been told that moneyline betting is the “serious” vocation for the serious client. But it’s like the hobby-advice section at the bookstore. “You can find better Patience Dock sprouts on south-facing slopes,” says the sage-like author. She’s actually telling you that she grew up picking Patience Dock sprouts on south-facing slopes, came to always look for them on south-facing slopes, and ignores north-facing slopes when hiking around. (I’m from the Midwest, and the truth is the stuff grows all over the damned place.) The person who told me moneyline gambling is the “fly-fishing” of Las Vegas was probably taught what’s chic by some other guy who heard it from another guy.

Meanwhile, there’s that old footage of Billy Walters – the greatest American sports gambler of all time – manipulating something called, oh I don’t know, “the spread” or somesuch before placing $500,000 worth of wagers. I’m sure anyone left over from the extended Walters family of sports-sharks would tell you, “all any serious player wants to hear is the spread and the Over/Under.”

Over/Under total-goals bets have been profitable in the Champions League and Europa League over the last few rounds, or at least valuable to those gamblers who see the widening gap between have and have-not clubs in those competitions. Lopsided games and unstoppable attacks mean lots of goals for the favorites, or at least a threat of offense that creates an easy game for the victor and an Under result in markets.

Let’s take a few stabs at winning O/U and goal-spread picks on Premier League fixtures in Matchday 10. Moneylines won’t be overlooked, of course, but if we cash-in about 50% with a combination of 50/50 lines and 3-way moneyline predictions, a hand-wringing slump can turn into high-5s by the time odds are adjusted for next weekend.

Southampton FC vs Leicester City

Sensational Foxes come to hunt at St. Mary’s Stadium. As this is the lone Friday pick in a strategically-timed post, many readers will be late to the party on this one.

Can’t be all bad – if it’s a lousy prediction that nonetheless would have persuaded a few Joes to put down a dollar, at least they’ll be spared unlucky defeat.

The records of the squads are disparate, and Leicester’s well-fortified counterattacking style has helped lead to an O/U of (2.5) alongside the favored visitors’ (+130) line-to-win in 90+ minutes. But we know that Saints won’t lay back without the ball, either resulting in dangerous giveaways along the Leicester back line or playing right into Foxes’ hands with space opened-up for leading passes to Jamie Vardy and other attackers running in space up the boundary.

Pick: Over

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Villains haven’t exactly made a “minnow” charge (think I’m mixing up my domestic league/tournament slang a bit) at the top of the table early in 2019-20, but the team is getting the kind of results it needs at 3-2-4 through 9 matches.

Man City’s status as such a popular moneyline pick at (-1200) is beyond reason, since the line opened at 1-to-8 and Sky Blues have shown a few cracks already in 2019.

Saturday’s stand-alone early fixture is at City of Manchester, a key factor that has a lot to do with a short line shortening even more. But the goal spread has moved to (-3) for Citizens which is a step too far. Bet against the public, which always fetishizes the great clubs even when they’re not winning every match in sight.

Pick: Aston Villa ATS

Brighton vs Everton FC

A round of 3 simultaneous Saturday matches includes this curious fixture at Falmer Stadium, with Toffeemen favored slightly but not pulling-in a whole lot of betting action at (+150).

Everton’s season has been lousy to date, and Brighton must feel like a daunting obstacle following an early autumn in which Jordan Pickford’s club has fallen to Cherries, Blades, Villains and Clarets. Last week’s victory vs visiting Hammers was a step forward for a team that may now be missing defender Yerry Mina on top of all its other problems. However, it’s a mistake for handicappers to overlook all of the sour results in favor of a sparing clean sheet vs West Ham. Toffees didn’t pass all that well or control the match beyond having a superior keeper and a nice touch Bernard in the 17^th minute.

Seagulls won’t have Aaron Mooy on the pitch following the midfielder’s red card vs Villa, but Bovada’s fat (+230) line on a Draw outcome is too tempting to pass on.

Pick: Draw

Watford FC vs AFC Bournemouth

There seems to be a slight preference for Hornets’ moneyline (currently (+115)) but you’d never understand why by looking at Watford’s winless record.

Perhaps a majority of gamblers think the proud club can’t go forever without a triumph, and Cherries visiting after a lackluster 3 weeks of “reversion” seems a likely-enough target. I’m interested in a goal total (3) that overlooks the potential inaccuracy of forwards at Vicarage Road even as the keepers won’t be World Cup-final caliber.

Pick: Under

West Ham United at Sheffield United

It’s hard to fathom how much the day-to-day tabloid cycle leads to overreactions and now-is-forever sentiment among Premiership ‘cappers and supporters alike.

Just think, a month ago Norwich City was the toast of the English Premier League’s latest batch of newcomers, having defeated Man City in a shocker of shockers at Carrow Road. Now it’s late October and Canaries look like the least-suitable of the trio at the top level, already in grave danger at 19^th on the table. Aston Villa is grinding-out points and sitting in a respectable 12^th.

Then there’s Sheffield, making the most of the fresh invitation at 9^th place. Blades have barely lost a league match since falling to Foxes back in August – an 0-1 loss to Liverpool on September 28^th was marked by a scoreless 69 minutes and an equal number of corner kicks for both sides.

Gambling action has shrunk Sheffield United’s underdog line-to-defeat West Ham on Saturday from 3.6-to-1 to merely (+255). In spite of Hammers’ recent swoon I’m not liking the underdog market at the new price, but take a gander at Blades (+0.5), essentially an English-exchange style “lay” on the host club.

Pick: Sheffield United (+0.5)

Burnley FC vs Chelsea FC

Blues are all kinds of hot after a slow start, but action still hasn’t moved a steady (-135) Chelsea line very far.

It’s probably the injuries. N’Golo Kante is just 1 of a handful of crucial Pensioners suffering scrapes, and health problems for Ross Barkley could aid a Clarets attack which sliced-up Southampton to begin the season.

However, I still see Chelsea getting through with a tight 1-goal victory in Saturday’s late match thanks to the superior keeping of Kepa and Blues’ exuberance after defeating Ajax in the Champions League round-robin on Wednesday.

Pick: Chelsea

Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton FC

My colleague Nikola was kind enough to offer a betting angle on Sunday’s early match at St. James Park. He believes that this is a fixture just tailor-made for an Under result, having noticed right away that opening Vegas/London lines of (2.5) and (2.25) – while not looking like a ton of goals to the naked eye – were still too hefty.

It’s a valid point-of-view. Newcastle is arguably the most defensive-minded club in the Premier League…with all due respect to the choking style of CPFC. Wolves can be a similar kind of cautious straight-ahead side under Espirito Santo.

If each team is hoping to win 1-0 or 2-0, then the final score is likely to be around 2-0 unless both managers are disappointed.

But a week’s line-movement has brought the total down to (2) goals even at Bovada and other sportsbooks. A better tactic at this point might be to figure out who’s more likely to win a tight match with a decisive play, since we know it’s likely to come down to that.

I’ve got my eye on Raul Jimenez of Wolves, personally.

Pick: Wolves ATS (Even)

Arsenal FC at Crystal Palace

“The quality of Gunners’ attack will overwhelm zonal defense,” say a thousand punters as they lay down an unwise bet on Arsenal at (-190) payoff odds.

Yes, Sunday’s match is at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal is likely to win. But the odds are exaggerated and growing more-so with days of action. There’s a (+550) moneyline on a visiting club that beat Man United at Old Trafford not long ago? Eagle excrement.

Pick: Crystal Palace

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur

Here’s a fattening underdog line that I’m actually on-board with abandoning altogether – Spurs’ 5-to-1 market to upset Liverpool on Sunday.

No attack that includes names like “Kane” and “Son” will be anything but a corker on a good day. Tottenham showed great teamwork when breaking the CPFC firewall in a 4-0 victory earlier this season. But since then the club has slumped in Champions League and domestic play, and keeper Hugo Lloris is out until winter.

The best Spurs should be able to do Sunday is score an early tally and push Reds to run away even faster by the end.

Pick: Over (3)

Norwich City vs Manchester United

United may be a flaky favorite on a lot of Matchdays, but Canaries-over-Citizens is looking like more of a fluke with each passing weekend.

Norwich City is not the giant-killer that bettors seem to think it is and the underdog’s currently-shrinking (+330) moneyline is only increasing the payoff on MUFC at (-130).

Heck, that’s almost a better payoff price than Bovada gives on some of those funky spreads and totals Billy Walters adored. Everyday speculators can’t afford to manipulate lines like he did, of course…and we can’t always wait around hoping they’ll move on their own.

Pick: Man United