March Madness 2023 – Midwest Region Picks and Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds to Win the Midwest Region

Below are the March Madness futures odds given to each team in the Midwest Region to represent the region in the Final Four.

Houston (+135)

Texas (+350)

Indiana (+1000)

Texas A&M (+1000)

Xavier (+1000)

Iowa State (+1500)

Miami (+2000)

Iowa (+2000)

Auburn (+3000)

Pittsburgh (+3100)

Penn State (+3500)

Drake (+4500)

Kent State (+5500)

Colgate (+17000)

Northern Kentucky (+25000)

Kennesaw State (+25000)

Meet the 16 Teams in the Midwest Region

#1 Houston

Conference: American

NET Rank: #1

Overall (Conf): 31-3 (17-1)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (Elite 8)

Last Championship: None

The tournament favorite. Houston has been the #1 team in college basketball for most of the 2022-23 season before dropping the American title game to Memphis and sinking “all the way” to 2nd in the final AP Poll of the year.

#2 Texas

Conference: Big 12

NET Rank: #7

Overall (Conf): 26-8 (12-6)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Round)

Last Championship: None

Interim Head Coach Rodney Terry took over 8 games into the Longhorns 2022-23 season after a nightmare scenario forced the university to part ways with Chris Beard midstream. All Terry did was guide Texas to their winningest season since 2010-11, the Big 12 tournament championship, and the #5 ranking in the final AP Poll.

#3 Xavier

Conference: Big East

NET Rank: #22

Overall (Conf): 25-9 (15-5)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2018 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Musketeers are back dancing after a 4-year absence. 25 wins is the program’s most since 2017-18. Xavier hasn’t done anything in the postseason since Chris Mack left for Louisville in 2018.

#4 Indiana

Conference: Big Ten

NET Rank: #30

Overall (Conf): 22-11 (12-8)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: 1987

The Hooisers won more Big Ten games than they lost this year for the first time since 2015-16. That year, Head Coach Tom Crean led Indiana to the Sweet 16 as a 5-seed. This year, the club is coached by Mike Woodson and is seeded 4th in the Midwest.

#5 Miami (FL)

Conference: ACC

NET Rank: #35

Overall (Conf): 25-7 (15-5)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (Elite 8)

Last Championship: None

It looked like The U peaked too early. Miami won 8 in a row in November/December but then suffered an extremely choppy month of January – shaping doubt as to whether they could survive the NCAA tournament. Those concerns were alleviated when Miami embarked on another long winning streak in February – winning 7 in a row right before the ACC tournament.

#6 Iowa State

Conference: Big 12

NET Rank: #20

Overall (Conf): 19-13 (9-9)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (Sweet 16)

Last Championship: None

The Cyclones were hot early this season – scoring big wins over Villanova, North Carolina, UConn, Baylor, TCU, and Texas by mid-January. A horrendous month of February culminated in a 4-game losing streak to Big 12 opponents. The Cyclones were able to snap the streak by beating Baylor 2 more times – once on the Bears’ senior night and once to open the Big 12 tournament. Iowa State is obviously doing something right over there in Ames to beat a 3-seed three times in one season.

#7 Texas A&M

Conference: SEC

NET Rank: #19

Overall (Conf): 25-9 (15-3)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2018 (Sweet 16)

Last Championship: None

The Aggies would love nothing more than to win their First Round game and meet their rival Longhorns in the Round of 32. Head Coach Buzz Williams is in his 4th season at the helm in College Station, but this is the first time he’s taken the Aggies to the tournament. They’re hungry.

#8 Iowa

Conference: Big Ten

NET Rank: #39

Overall (Conf): 19-13 (11-9)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Round)

Last Championship: None

The Hawkeyes secured their 3rd-straight NCAA tournament appearance and their 4th-straight winning conference season here in 2022-23. 19 wins is actually Iowa basketball’s fewest since 2017-18. Head Coach Fran McCaffery’s squad barely cracked the top-25 this season after being ranked as high as 3rd in the AP Poll just 24 months ago.

#9 Auburn

Conference: SEC

NET Rank: #32

Overall (Conf): 20-12 (10-8)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

Head Coach Bruce Pearl and his Tigers would love to repeat the success they found in 2019 – advancing all the way to the Final Four in Minneapolis. They won their region as a 5-seed that year. They’re a 9-seed in 2022-23.

#10 Penn State

Conference: Big Ten

NET Rank: #48

Overall (Conf): 22-13 (10-10)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2011 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Nittany Lions surprised everyone – surging all the way to the Big Ten tournament finals as a 10-seed and giving 1-seed Purdue a heck of a championship game. This showing in the 11th hour pulled Penn State into the field as their 10-10 conference record in the regular season was not going to cut it. 

#11 Pittsburgh

Conference: ACC

NET Rank: #67

Overall (Conf): 22-11 (14-6)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2016 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

Pitt had to play their way into the Round of 64 – beating Mississippi State in a 1-point nailbiter in the First Four Tuesday night. At-large teams who played in the First Four have performed quite well over the years. Recall the 2011 VCU team who went all the way to the Final Four or the 2021 UCLA team who went just as far. 3 other at-large First Four teams in the past 8 seasons have made the Sweet 16.

#12 Drake

Conference: Missouri Valley

NET Rank: #55

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (15-5)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Des Moines, Iowa school is making its 2nd NCAA tournament appearance in 3 years but is without a win at the big dance since 1971. The Bulldogs are not used to winning so many games. 27 wins is the most for the program since 2008, and 15 conference wins ties an all-time high for the school.

#13 Kent State

Conference: Mid-American

NET Rank: #59

Overall (Conf): 28-6 (15-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2017 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The last time the Golden Flashes won an NCAA tournament game was 2002. Head Coach Rob Senderoff is in his 12th season at the helm in Kent and shattered his previous season-high win total of 23 with 28 wins this year – the 2nd-most in school history.

#14 Kennesaw State

Conference: Atlantic Sun

NET Rank: #115

Overall (Conf): 26-8 (15-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: None

Last Championship: None

Kennesaw State is one of those teams who only get picked in bracket pools by their students. Unlike some of the rinky-dink little schools in the pool, though, Kennesaw has a large enrollment of over 35,000 students so they’ll garner plenty of attention this March regardless of how many games they win.

#15 Colgate

Conference: Patriot League

NET Rank: #101

Overall (Conf): 26-8 (17-1)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Colgate company was founded way back in 1806 and Colgate University first fielded a basketball team in 1900- meaning it’s an undeniable fact that the Raiders have never played a game where they weren’t bombarded by toothpaste jokes.

#16 Northern Kentucky

Conference: Horizon

NET Rank: #154

Overall (Conf): 22-12 (14-6)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2019 (1st Round)

Last Championship: None

The Norse have one of the cooler names in college basketball but one of the shortest traditions. Northern Kentucky has only fielded a D1 team since 2012 but has already appeared in 3 NCAA tournaments. That’s an impressive feat for a school in the Horizon League. Their next goal – win a tournament game.

March Madness Midwest Region Odds and Matchups

#9 Auburn vs #8 Iowa

Thursday – 6:50pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: AUB -1.5 / 151.5

Unlike in college football this year, the Iowa Hawkeyes score points in bunches. 80.2 per game is the 13th-most in the nation. However, the Hawkeyes offense is prone to some downswings as they attempt three-pointers too often considering their poor shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Also, Iowa only accounts for 18.8% of their scoring from the free throw line which ranks 152nd in the land.

Consistent, sustainable offenses pound the rock inside and get to the line. Teams who don’t are prone to bad games – not a good M.O. for a single-elimination tournament.

The Auburn Tigers don’t average quite as many points per game as Iowa (72.7) but they shoot 21 free-throw attempts nightly (54th in CBB) and grab 10 offensive boards each game which leads to easy put backs.

These teams are so evenly matched. The Big Ten is a gauntlet as is the SEC. The metrics are extremely similar for these two squads. When in doubt, take the points. For that reason, we like Iowa +1.5 here – praying that this isn’t one of those clunkers for the Hawkeyes.

#15 Colgate vs #2 Texas

Thursday – 7:25pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: TEX -13.5 / 150.5

After running the table in the Big 12 tournament, the Longhorns are a popular pick to stand alone atop the bracket when this thing is all said and done. Both the Raiders and Longhorns average the same amount of points per game and points allowed, but against drastically different strengths of opponents. The Longhorns played 15 teams ranked in the top-25 this season – winning 9 of those games. The Raiders were drubbed by 27 the one time they tried to play up (against Auburn).

There are typically a couple of upset red flags we look for prior to these lopsided first-round games. First, does the favorite commit a harmful amount of turnovers? Ehh, this is a little sketchy. The Longhorns rank 101st in the nation in turnovers per game (11.7) while Colgate ranks 18th (10.2).

Second, is the favorite solid on the boards or will they allow life-breathing second-chance points? Once again, the Longhorns are pretty bad here – ranking 186th in defensive rebounding percentage.

This one has all the makings of a game in which the 15-seed refuses to go away. It might be worth sprinkling some Colgate ML into your March Madness action, but Colgate +13.5 is the smart play here.

#16 Northern Kentucky vs #1 Houston

Thursday – 9:20pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: HOU -17.5 / 121.5

Houston is the best team in the NCAA and has a storied, rich history. Northern Kentucky has only been eligible for this tournament since 2012. This should be the biggest spread of the 1st round, but Houston likes to play with their food sometimes. The likelihood we see an optimal game of Houston basketball is slim. They’re so talented that they can treat this game like a three-quarter speed scrimmage and still cover the 17.5 points.

The Cougars do everything right – ranking 5th in the NCAA in offensive efficiency (1.130) and 1st in defensive efficiency (.851). They also rebound decently well – grabbing 76.2% of the available defensive rebounds this season which ranks 72nd in the country.

Northern Kentucky, in contrast, ranks 153rd in offensive efficiency, 108th in defensive efficiency, and 315th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Don’t overthink it. Take Houston -17.5 and just hope they take this game seriously.

#10 Penn State vs #7 Texas A&M

Thursday – 9:55pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: A&M -2.5 / 134.5

Few teams in college basketball did more for their NCAA tournament hopes than Penn State this year – jumping from surely out to squarely in after winning 3 Big 10 tournament games and taking #1 Purdue to the wire.

Yeah, they’re hot, but what do the Nittany Lions do well? They don’t score a whole lot – ranking 136th in the nation in points per game (72.3) – but that’s because they play at the 34th-slowest pace in the nation. Penn State shoots well (46.4% from the field) and avoids turnovers (4th-fewest in NCAA), so their offense is actually very effective.

Defensively is where Penn State stinks. The Nittany Lions rank 230th in defensive efficiency – the reason they were 10-10 in conference play and on the outside looking in until a miraculous tournament run saved them.

Fortunately for Penn State, the Aggies are a team against which you can get away with shoddy defense. A&M shoots just 43.5% from the field – ranking 226th in the nation. A&M also coughs the ball up 12.3 times per game – just what a poor defensive team needs to hang in there.

Once again, we got some really evenly matched teams here where the weaknesses of one perfectly align with the weaknesses of the other. Let’s continue our habit of taking the points in these spots and bet Penn State +2.5.

#14 Kennesaw State vs #3 Xavier

Friday – 12:40pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: XAV -12.5 / 153.5

At first glance, Xavier should blow Kennesaw out. The Musketeers score more points per game, allow fewer points per game, and do it all against far superior competition. Xavier has played 11 games against ranked teams to the Owls’ 1. That foray into big-boy play didn’t go too well for Kennesaw – getting clapped by 34 points at the hands of San Diego State.

The Owls have a senior guard named Terrell Burden who carries them offensively, but he scores fewer points per game than each of the Musketeers’ top-4 scorers who pour in 61 a game themselves. Xavier shouldn’t be too concerned. Burden doesn’t have the skill to drop 40 and will his ASUN team to a victory over a Big East foe.

This Musketeers team has no glaring weaknesses and should score at ease against a short Kennesaw team who lacks a strong interior presence. Take Xavier -12.5 and enjoy that feeling when it’s out of control by halftime.

#11 Pittsburgh vs #6 Iowa State

Friday – 3:10pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: ISU -4.5 / 130.5

The Panthers are hot after winning their First Four bout with the Bulldogs from Mississippi State. Pitt is extra scary because they don’t beat themselves. Pittsburgh plays at a slow pace (69.4 possessions per game) which allows them to limit the turnovers to 11.1 per game – ranking 53rd in the nation.

This allows the Panthers to be a top-25 team in offensive efficiency and drop 76.1 points per game. It’s their defense which is prone to lapses. A “lapsey” defense is exactly what Iowa State needs to advance here. The Cyclones are so inconsistent offensively. One night they’ll score 78. The next they’ll be held to 58.

These aren’t just rhetorical examples, these are the Cyclones’ scoring outputs from their two games in the Big 12 tournament last week. It was like this all season, too. Iowa State was held below 60 points in 2022-23 on 8 separate occasions – the most in the Big 12.

The skill advantage in this one goes to Iowa State. The size, too, but it’s hard to force yourself to put hard-earned money on Iowa State right now. Laying 4.5 points is a bit much for a team who is just as likely to produce a dud than they are to execute efficiently.

Pitt is red hot, they’re peaking at the right time, and they’re getting 4.5 points in this one. Take Pitt +4.5 and pray Iowa State doesn’t pick right now to put it all together.

#12 Drake vs #5 Miami (FL)

Friday – 7:25pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: MIA -1.5 / 147.5

Game preview coming soon.

#13 Kent State vs #4 Indiana

Friday – 9:55pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: IND -4.5 / 140.5

Game preview coming soon.