I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a hockey fan. I don’t know many of the players, even fewer coaches, and I still get confused about icing.
Betting an Unfamiliar Sport May be Very Profitable
A humorous sports betting tale pops into my head whenever I consider venturing into an unfamiliar sport. The story goes as follows:
There is a middle-aged man who is a lifelong football fan and bets the NFL every year. He has a terrible win rate – losing tens of thousands of dollars each season. He can’t ever seem to get an edge on the books. He digs himself huge holes and then compounds matters trying to get back to even in the primetime games.
The man’s best buddy watches his friend struggle with these losses year after year and finally says, “hey man, maybe football just isn’t your sport. What about trying hockey?”. Solid advice, after all the man had proven he had zero skill toward football betting.
The bettor barely allows the words to enter his ears before retorting, “I can’t bet hockey! I know nothing about hockey!”. End scene.
You know how if you can’t spot the sucker right away, it’s you? Well, if you don’t see the humor in this story, you are the losing middle-aged man.
Although counterintuitive, betting on a sport you know little about can be very lucrative as you must rely solely on data with no personal biases mucking up your judgment. This is me when it comes to hockey.
The only capping I do for hockey is analyzing stats and trends. No player matchups, no injury reports. Just numbers.
Professional hockey boasts some very high payouts because it is a moneyline sport. Rather than betting on the goal spread (which is like the runline in baseball), most bettors prefer to take the moneyline. Typical underdogs are in the (+130) to (+170) range. Big dogs are in the 200s. Massive dogs in the 300s or above.
The potential of a 2.5 or 3-1 payout just for winning a measly regular season game is pretty awesome and a major draw of moneyline sports like hockey or baseball.
Why Bet Detroit in Tonight’s Wings-Lightning Matchup
Tonight, the Detroit Red Wings leave home and travel south to face the Tampa Bay Lightning.
👋 from Tampa!
💻: https://t.co/a1ZFiGyALB pic.twitter.com/yiLj4Mgkgu
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) April 19, 2022
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As of publishing, the Wings are (+405) dogs – one of the biggest mismatches on paper of the 2021-22 season.
The Red Wings (29-37-10) have made a habit of pulling off upsets this season – most recently defeating the Carolina Hurricanes as (+313) dogs and the Boston Bruins as (+175) dogs.
Aside from the occasional upset, the Wings have been unable to get momentum rolling this season – currently sitting at 6th in the Atlantic division with a -77 goal differential. Detroit has lost 2 consecutive contests.
The Lightning (46-21-8) are in 3rd place in the Atlantic division – winners of 2 straight. Tuesday’s game is Tampa’s 3rd game of a 5-game homestand.
Should We Bet Big NHL Underdogs?
Is there value in betting big dogs? Like the 300-400 range? Is that a good idea? Let’s explore.
Prior to this current season, there was no value in betting NHL dogs of (+300) or more.
| Season | # of Games | Record (%) | Avg Line | $ Profit |
| 2018-19 | 14 | 4-10 (28.6%) | 337.5 | $350 |
| 2019-20 | 7 | 0-7 (0%) | 358.6 | -$700 |
| 2020-21 | 15 | 4-11 (26.7%) | 319.7 | $179 |
| 2021-22 | 45 | 7-38 (15.6%) | 341.3 | -$1,411 |
| 2018-2021 Total | 36 | 8-28 (22.2%) | 334.2 | -$171 |
| 4-Yr Total | 81 | 15-66 (18.5%) | 338.1 | -$1,582 |
You were basically breaking even … until this season when large dogs are more prevalent than ever and losing like nobody’s business.
In 2021-22, there have been more (+300) underdog opportunities than in the past 3 NHL seasons combined. Despite an enviable average line of (+341), these dogs have only won at a 15.6% clip.
Using our trusty sports betting odds formula, we know that in order to break even at (+341) odds you need to hit 22.7% of your bets. 15.6% is woefully short of that mark.
Betting Only the Biggest NHL Underdogs
Narrowing our scope to include only major underdogs of (+400) or more reveals some value.
| Season | # of Games | Record (%) | Avg Line | $ Profit |
| 2018-19 | 1 | 1-0 (100%) | 425 | $425 |
| 2019-20 | 2 | 0-2 (0%) | 425 | -$200 |
| 2020-21 | 1 | 0-1 (0%) | 415 | -$100 |
| 2021-22 | 5 | 1-4 (20%) | 465 | $65 |
| Total | 9 | 2-7 (22.2%) | 446.1 | $190 |
Ahh, this is much better. Sure, it’s only 9 games over 4 seasons. Sure, it’s a meager 1.9-unit profit. But let’s look at the context here:
Underdogs of (+300) or more are absolutely atrocious in 2021-22, and we just found a subsection of those dogs which are profitable. That’s a diamond in the rough!
Can we find another reason to take the Red Wings tonight? You betcha!
NHL Streak Breaker System
A sports bettor named Professor MJ released this goldmine entitled the NHL Streak Breaker system.
Rooted in contrarianism and betting against the public, this system fades teams on winning streaks and sides with those mired in a slump.
The reasoning being that the hot team will be overvalued while a good price can be had on the team stuck in the losing streak.
I’ve personally dabbled with this system during the 2nd half of the NHL season. With a sample size of 17 games – here is how I’ve done thus far.
| Date | Matchup | Result |
| 3/1/22 | DET (+185) vs CAR | W |
| 3/1/22 | ANA (+165) vs BOS | W |
| 3/2/22 | BUF (+347) vs TOR | W |
| 3/8/22 | WIN (+149) vs TAM | W |
| 3/10/22 | SJ (+180) vs LA | W |
| 3/11/22 | CLB (+177) vs MIN | W |
| 3/23/22 | VAN (+228) vs COL | W |
| 3/29/22 | PHI (+248) vs MIN | L |
| 4/1/22 | CHI (+297) vs TAM | L |
| 4/4/22 | CLB (+212) vs BOS | L |
| 4/4/22 | LA (+153) vs CAL | L |
| 4/5/22 | DET (+175) vs BOS | W |
| 4/5/22 | SJ (+163) vs EDM | L |
| 4/7/22 | SJ (+170) vs CAL | L |
| 4/8/22 | WIN (+160) vs COL | L |
| 4/14/22 | ARI (+235) vs VAN | L |
| 4/14/22 | DET (+313) vs CAR | W |
| Total | — | 9-8 (up 11.19 units) |
This system has exceeded my expectations. I won my first 7 bets! 7 straight cashes is unheard of when you are betting dogs every night.
After those first 7 games, I was up 14.31 units. Since the streak ended, these picks have gone 2-8 and I’ve lost 3.12 units. That’s regression, folks.
2 Other NHL Underdog Picks for Tuesday, April 19th
You can see why I’m gung-ho about NHL underdogs right now. If you look closely at the matchups, you can see I’ve cashed in on Detroit upsets on 3 separate occasions this year. Let’s make it 4!
The Red Wings fit both our streak breaker system as well as our (+400) dogs system – making them a very high-risk, high-reward play.
This is not the only game on the docket tonight which offers value. 2 other underdogs fit the streak breaker system and should be considered: the Winnipeg Jets (+180 against NYR) and the Ottawa Senators (+212 against VAN).
These 3 plays are +EV and make for exciting additions to your Tuesday betting card.
See you on top, boppers!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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