Kansas City vs San Francisco: Best Bets and O/U Prediction on a Confounding Super Bowl LIV

“When I came into the NFL, everyone said you just couldn’t run the ball anymore because the defenses had gotten too big and too fast. They forgot that everything in football as in physics is relative, and an offense could be every bit as big and just as fast.” – Vince Lombardi

Plenty of pundits saw the Super Bowl 54 match-up between San Francisco and Kansas City coming down the pike long before the bout was scheduled. From a broader point-of-view, however, the first NFL title tilt of a new decade would have been thought impossible 10 years ago, or perhaps even 5 years ago.

Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs is foremost among a new breed of dual-threat QBs running “NCAA”-style playbooks in the National Football League. But while a college team might have a grand total of 25 running plays and 50 pass plays to choose from, Kansas City’s offense looks more like something out of the 22^nd century. Mahomes can run like a tailback, rifle deep balls to a talented WR corps, and scramble out of the pocket like Fran Tarkenton. As if that’s not enough, he’s got a tight end in Travis Kelce who might become known as a great Super Bowl pass-catcher…depending on how things go at Hard Rock Stadium.

Meanwhile, at a glance the San Francisco 49ers’ offense is ordinary. Runs off-tackle to a committee-style backfield and drop-back passes from QB Jimmy Garoppolo don’t look all that different from what NFL clubs have been doing for decades. But look again at the 49ers’ play-selection and a different picture emerges. San Francisco attempted 8 passes – 8 passes! – in the NFC Championship Game and whipped Green Bay 37-20 in a scrum that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests.

Every analyst on TV and the internet has an opinion on the Super Bowl, which is handicapped with a tight (-1.5) point spread (in favor of the Chiefs) in Las Vegas. But they’re the same people who have yelled “it’s a passing league!” for entire careers. To profit from a Greatest Show on Earth between a pair of teams going against the grain, the shark must also buck the norm and think about the NFL in brand new terms.

That might just go for the head coaches too.

How Lines Are Moving on Super Bowl LIV…or Not

Sometimes, bookmakers will choose to sit pat on a Super Bowl point spread or moneyline, no matter what the gambling public does. That’s what happened last winter when the L.A. Rams met the New England Patriots. No matter how many people wagered on the Rams to cover or win straight-up, sportsbooks passed on “balancing” the Super bowl odds and put faith in the Patriots to win instead. When that happened, Las Vegas had a happy Sunday.

Word has it that early action on Super Bowl 54 weighed slightly in favor of Kansas City. But there just isn’t a gold rush toward 1 side or the other this time, and nothing creates inertia in betting lines like a polarizing split in public opinion. Not only has the point spread remained incredibly stable, the moneyline has be devoid of almost all significant movement, currently standing a (-120) on the favored Kansas City Chiefs at Bovada Sportsbook and other sites.

Sunday’s Over/Under line of (54.5) points has climbed, by about a field goal’s margin in fact. But we’ll get to that a little later on scroll.

Handicapping the Meeting in Miami

There are a lot of valid reasons to like San Francisco on 2/2. For starters, the 49er offensive line is so powerful that it almost doesn’t matter who’s running the ball behind it. Raheem Mostert is the latest San Francisco running back to dazzle crowds in the NFC playoffs, rushing for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns on just under 30 carries against the Packers.

“Mosterati” may be nicknamed after a sports car but he’s more like a monster truck on the gridiron. Matt Breida remains a go-to option in the backfield, though RB Tevin Coleman has had injury problems and may not play in the Super Bowl.

In a sense, though, San Fran’s most effective running-game weapon is All-World tackle Joe Staley, who leads an OL that overcame an injury of its own when center Ben Garland stepped-in for the ailing Weston Richburg.

Garoppolo isn’t a bad downfield passer despite rarely getting the opportunity these days – if Kyle Shanahan decides to air it out against the Chiefs for whatever reason (not unprecedented, considering his past with the Atlanta Falcons) then WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE George Kittle could be rewarded for their patience through a playoff run that has involved a whole lot of perimeter blocking and not a lot of catches.

Meanwhile, yards are hard to come by against a resurgent San Francisco front-7. Nick Bosa and Dee Ford are 2 of the premier QB hunters in the sport, and the 49ers have posted an amazing 44 sacks in 2019-20 without blitzing often. That means a secondary led by Richard Sherman is blessed with extra hands while opposing passers struggle to avoid the rush.

The Chiefs could be faced with some tactical headaches. Kansas City’s offense fared uncommonly badly at times against the Los Angeles Chargers this season, and the “Cover 3” defense employed by the Bolts’ defensive backfield is also a favorite call of San Francisco DC Robert Saleh. (He can’t score goals like Mohamed Salah, but his 11-man unit has been the most dominant in the league save for an injury-addled track meet vs New Orleans.)

In spite of all of the above, I’m leaning toward Kansas City. Not because I’m from Missouri…and not because any of the analysis above is necessarily flawed. Rather, the idea that the 49ers will run for 5+ yards per carry, complete play-action passes for touchdowns, and stuff the KC offense for a large chunk of 4 quarters is factored-into the Las Vegas odds already despite the Chiefs standing as a slender favorite.

In normal circumstances an AFC quarterback who’s already been a league MVP would be a 10-point favorite on the spread if paired against an NFC-representative QB who tossed 6 completions in the conference title game. We can all agree that if Super Bowl 54 turns into a shoot-out, the Chiefs have the advantage of snapping to 1 of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s the match-up at other positions that’s keeping the odds so tight, but some of the assumptions being made by pro handicappers could be dubious at best.

Chiefs Could Justify Their Favorite’s Moneyline..and Then Some

Think about what the Chiefs need to do to win this Super Bowl. First and foremost, they’ve got to stop the 49er ground game which has torn-up so many opponents in the regular season and the playoffs. If we’re speaking as historians, there’s just no way that will happen. Kansas City’s defense has been soft against the run in more big games than you can count during the Andy Reid era.

What’s more, if going by the past few years, I wouldn’t even be confident that Reid would understand why his defense should change anything this time. The portly KC skipper is a disciple of late San Francisco coach Bill Walsh, who would not be happy about what Shanahan is doing with the 49ers now. Walsh believed that trying to run 50+ times per game and control the LOS with brute force was a fool’s errand. It’s easy to imagine the 49ers rushing for 1^st down after 1^st down on Sunday while Reid stands on the sideline with a detached look on his face, thinking that his balanced offense will prove superior in the end no matter how many pancake blocks the 49ers make in the opening quarters.

But past is past – and the 2020 Super Bowl is happening now, not 3 years ago. Kansas City dealt with the same conundrum against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game less than 2 weeks ago, made worse by the fact that Tennessee jumped out to an early lead. That’s the perfect scenario for a run-heavy team to punish a high-flying opponent and control the ball. KC’s defense turned it around on the front lines, doing a low number on superstar RB Derrick Henry and leaving the door open for Mahomes and company to take over the contest in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters.

The 49er ground game has enjoyed the benefit of a terrific defense in 2019-20, giving Mostert and the now-injured Coleman plenty of carries in comfortable field-position, and allowing Shanahan – a nervous and impatient coach in his worst moments as exemplified by the awful 4^th quarter of Super Bowl LI – to stick with the game plan. Tennessee had no such luxury this season. Henry and his blockers simply controlled games by themselves. Maybe the Chiefs can’t explode for 35 points at a time against the 49ers, but they’ve already shut down a ground game on-par with that of San Francisco’s, and arguably an even-better one if you consider what Henry’s been up-against while nearly leading the Titans all the way to the grail.

Secondly, the angle that the 49ers will simply rush 3 or 4 men at Mahomes successfully while leaving Sherman and 7 other coverage-men to blanket the KC receiving corps is also an incomplete analysis. Mahomes is a phenomenal rusher whose epic dash from the 35-yard line for a TD was the knockout blow against Tennessee. The 49ers will need spies to watch him. Ford and Bosa can’t simply rush headlong to the pocket like the Patriots’ front-7 did against Jared Goff last season. Pressure from San Francisco is just as likely to lead to explosive plays from Kansas City as Mahomes escapes the pocket and finds only a couple of linebackers to beat in a footrace.

Last but not least, as much as the 49er kicking game has improved as Robbie Gould rebounds from a mid-season injury, the Chiefs have an even more-deadly special teams unit led by PK Harrison Butker and speedy kick-return threat Mecole Hardman. An 11-MPH breeze is currently predicted on Super Bowl Sunday in Miami, making it less likely that Gould will simply boom kickoffs over Hardman’s head and into the end zone all night.

Speaking of special teams, the kicking game could play a big role in whether the Over/Under total pays-off on the high or the low side of the market.

An Over/Under Pick from the WagerBop Team

Let’s turn briefly to chief (excuse the pun) WagerBop scout Chris Aliperto for an O/U prediction on Super Bowl 54:

The high-powered Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs offense will face a stingy San Francisco defense that is proving to be one of the best defenses in recent memory when fully healthy. On the other side, the 49ers ground and pound rushing attack will face a Chiefs defense that was finally able to slow down Derrick Henry and stop the Titans, who were running through opponents with the former Alabama bruiser, until being stopped 35-24 in the Conference Championship.

The Super Bowl should be hard to handicap for obvious reasons, but wouldn’t a boring, low-scoring defensive battle be exactly what Vegas wants? I have to think outside the box on this one because I can truly see this game going in plenty of different directions. Can the 49ers defense stop Mahomes should be the first question you ask yourself, because if you believe that they can, then why not consider going under this massive game total? The over is the massively popular bet, as the total opened at 51.5 and has moved all the way up to 55.

Betting the under is never fun. We get mad when either team scores, and it isn’t exactly the most exciting way to watch a game. However, 55 is a ton of points. The 49ers have given up just one TD to each of their previous opponents in the Vikings and Packers, and with the way the Chiefs handled Henry, the 49ers could very well struggle to move the ball on the ground with Raheem Mostert as well.

Clock management will be a huge factor in this football game, and when I am combining possible final scores in my head, I am coming up well short of 55. We have basically hit a spot where we need a 31-24 score to cash an over bet, and I don’t think either team gets to 30 with these stout defenses. Again, betting on and cheering for an under bet is never fun, but what is more fun is being the only guy at the booth cashing your ticket at the end of the night. Bet the UNDER 55 and good luck!

Super Bowl 54 Prediction and Point Spread Pick

There are 2 ways to look at the point spread for Super Bowl LIV – either the line is so tight that people should bypass it and just bet on the ML anyway, or it’s worth the slightly-enhanced payoff on a 2+ point Kansas City win to go ahead and give San Francisco the 1.5 points and bet a (-105) or (-110) payoff line ATS.

I’m siding with angle #2. Of course there’s a chance the 49ers will ground-and-pound and win the game by a TD or more. But at the same time, the Chiefs have shown that they won’t settle for a 3 or 7 or 10-point lead if Mahomes’ offense breaks through and starts to do damage. Tyreek Hill is a potential game breaker, but KC has plenty of other weapons through the air, and the NFC representatives can’t simply rely on Richard Sherman to take away 1 side of the field and consider the job done.

There’s no chance of a 1-point win for either team if the game goes to overtime, and little chance of that scenario if the score is tied with 2 minutes left. Kyle Shanahan may be an offensive genius but he’s as prone to play-calling foibles as Reid when coaching under the brightest lights, and I wouldn’t want to be on the 49er sideline when the Chiefs’ irrepressible attack gets vroom! vroom! revved-up again in the 2^nd half.

We’ve seen Reid’s teams blow a lot of leads in a lot of huge football games. But we saw a Shanahan team blow a gigantic lead at the Super Bowl not very long ago.

All due respect to Vince Lombardi – the 2019-20 season has proven The Pope correct that football is and always will be a running sport. But the KC quarterback can do some running of his own, and a student of Bill Walsh is more likely to win a battle of styles in Magic City.

Take the Chiefs (-1.5) to cover in Super Bowl LIV.