We saw one of the least-likely comebacks of 2023 on Tuesday night from Washington, even though they hardly trailed the entire game. How is this possible? We’ll give you a spoiler: Washington reliever Jordan Weems (#51) picked up his first career win in the process after pitching both the 10th and 11th innings. This picture was taken shortly after the biggest play of the game.
Nationals-Mariners Gets Good from the 7th Inning On
Both Washington starter Jake Irvin and M’s starter Bryan Woo were decent on Tuesday night. Neither could quite earn a quality start, but they were close. Seattle led Washington 3-2 through 6 innings. One of those Nats runs came via a throwing error from the pitcher – Woo. The Nats hadn’t mustered much offense to this point – just 6 hits against Woo (through 5 innings) and his first reliever Gabe Speier.
The Mariners have a great bullpen – ranking 2nd in baseball in WAR and 4th in ERA. Down a run entering the 7th inning is a horrible position to be in versus Seattle – especially at T-Mobile Park where you’re far less likely to sneak a cheap home run.
Prior to this game, Seattle was 29-6 (83%) when leading after 6 innings. This would give Washington roughly a 17% chance of victory. That’s not the amazing part, though.
The Nats loaded the bases with 0 outs in the top of the 7th – actually becoming favorites in the game. The blue arrow below is when Lane Thomas walked to load the bases and Washington held a 54% chance of victory. This is, of course, ESPN’s win probability tracker that is available for every MLB game.
All the Nats could do was tie the game, though. 2-hitter Luis Garcia lifted a sac fly to center. The runner on 3rd – CJ Abrams – scored easily, but the runner on 2nd – Derek Hill – failed to tag and reach 3rd.
Washington blew a golden opportunity to take the lead and instead turned it back over the Mariners offense in a 3-3 game. You can see from the win probability graph that the Mariners were once again heavy favorites in the contest.
Mariners Reclaim Lead in Bottom of the 7th
The Nationals had tied the game but wasted a great chance to take a lead. Washington’s bullpen has been about as bad as it comes in 2023 – ranking 29th in ERA. Those boys needed a cushion. Pitching in a tie game on the road normally does not end well for this bunch.
With runners on the corners, no one out, and Kolten Wong at the dish, the Nationals almost turned an odd-looking yet brilliant 6-4-2 double play as Jarred Kelenic sprinted for home once he saw the feed from SS Abrams to 2B Garcia.
The call on the field was out, but Kelenic was ruled safe upon further review and the Mariners led 4-3. The gutsy baserunning from Kelenic paid off and the Nationals were back behind the 8-ball – down a run again with 1 fewer inning to go.
Cue Keibert.
Keibert Ruiz With One of Washington’s Biggest Swings of the Season
The Mariners’ pen is nasty – as we’ve established. T-Mobile Park in Seattle is one of the hardest parks in the league in which to hit one out. Per Baseball Savant, T-Mobile ranks as the worst hitters park overall and ranks 18th in home run “hittability.”
Keibert doesn’t care about your Statcast data.
We have a little section below dedicated to the home run data from Tuesday’s game. Scroll down a bit to see more info on Ruiz’s tying blast.
It’s now 4-4, but the Mariners are still favored because their bullpen rocks and they have the hammer, playing at home.
Some solid defense by Washington kept this thing tied. We would eventually go to extras in the Pacific Northwest.
Jordan Weems Channels His Inner Max Scherzer To Escape Horrible Jam
Do you remember this moment from the 2013 ALDS when Max Scherzer pitched his way out of a bases-loaded-no-one-out jam in the 8th to preserve a 1-run lead?
Similar vibes in Seattle on Tuesday night as the game was still tied 4-4, but the M’s were about to win with the bags full and no one out.
The M’s began the 10th with the Manfred runner on 2nd. JP Crawford (intentional) and Julio Rodriguez (non-intentional) both walked. This loaded the bases (with no one out) for Seattle’s 3-4-5 hitters – Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, and Cal Raleigh.
Yikes, what a mess for the Washington reliever who happened to be in at the time – Jordan Weems.
The Book (2007) by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin gives the Mariners between an 84-88% chance of scoring the winning run, here. The ESPN win probability at this moment was 93.6% for Seattle. This is the green arrow below. The Mariners were never closer to winning the ball game than at that moment.
Weems didn’t panic. He made his pitches to Ty France and induced the P2 in foul ground. 1 down. Recording that first out in a bases loaded situation is paramount. Per The Book, it increases the likelihood of the offense scoring 0 runs by about 2.5 times. This is largely because the pitcher is now one ground ball away from escaping the jam.
The next man up was Teoscar Hernandez – the easiest batter to strike out in all of Major League Baseball. Hernandez lived up to expectations here.
A couple of poor at-bats for Seattle, and Weems was now 1 out away from escaping this impossible jam. The odds of a team scoring at least 1 run with the bases loaded and no one out? About 88%. With 2 outs it drops to 30%.
He did it! He did it! How did he do it? We don’t know. That was the weakest bases loaded sequence from Seattle we’ve ever seen! Their 3-4-5 hitters couldn’t get the ball out of the infield!
Lane Thomas Wins it for Washington in 11th Inning
It’s the top of the 11th. The Nats would love nothing more than to capitalize on getting out of that jam by scoring multiple runs this inning. That doesn’t look too likely, though, as the Nats pick up a couple of quick outs. Washington does have a couple of guys on, but they have 2 outs and are facing a nasty pitcher in Trevor Gott.
Lane Thomas is a dawg, though. He drives them both home.
This clutch Thomas double took Washington from the yellow arrow to the red arrow – easily the largest jump in win expectancy for either team the entire day.
Dave Martinez sent Weems back out for the 11th inning, and he shut Seattle down completely – not even allowing the Manfred runner to score. Nats win 7-4 after holding just a 6.4% chance of victory during the bottom of the 10th.
Massive Home Runs From Tuesday’s Nationals-Mariners Game
As a little dessert, here are the Statcast numbers and the “Would it Dong” analysis for Keibert Ruiz’s clutch game-tying homer in the 8th inning and Teoscar Hernandez’s shot in the 1st inning.
⚾Keibert Ruiz! HR (9)
See. You. Later! 🦅6/27/23 @ SEA, ⬆️ 8th
vs RHP Paul Sewald92.5 MPH / 29° / 356 ft to RF
Off a 83.6 MPH sweeper▶️It’s a home run in 14/30 parks.◀️
See this play in Gameday: https://t.co/IfMQiQWVgm pic.twitter.com/6xAEWW5r4v
— Home Run Report (@homerunreport) June 28, 2023
⚾Teoscar Hernández! HR (15)
My, oh, my! 🌧️6/27/23 @ SEA, ⬇️ 1st
vs RHP Jake Irvin107.1 MPH / 34° / 393 ft to RF
Off a 94.3 MPH sinker▶️It’s a home run in 29/30 parks.◀️
🏟️(Not in SF.)See this play in Gameday: https://t.co/dlPIJbmx4j pic.twitter.com/EPZtJyq5GL
— Home Run Report (@homerunreport) June 28, 2023
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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