January Wrap Up – Learn the NBA Betting Landscape

Would you invest in stocks without performing any research? Would you buy a house without first checking it out? What about putting down money on the winner of a basketball game before understanding which side is more likely to win?

Too many sports bettors fail to stay current in the leagues they bet and wind up making misinformed decisions because of it. These bettors “go with their gut” or pick names they recognize and then pray it will work out for them.

Don’t let this be you! It’s so easy to remain up-to-date on your sports news in the age of the internet. But there are so many games to watch these days. How can you expect me to follow all of them?

I can’t stand excuses, so to eliminate the validity of that last excuse I am dropping an early-season look at the NBA betting landscape.

Here’s an NBA betting question – which team currently has the highest ATS win percentage in this young season? Quick! What’s your answer? You’re probably thinking Lakers or Bucks, but it’s actually the Utah Jazz at 68.8%.

One more – which team holds the lowest ATS win rate? Common answers include the lowly Pistons or Timberwolves … but it’s the Toronto Raptors at 33.3%.

Has life kept you from enjoying as much NBA action as you should be consuming? That’s ok. Sit back and take the next couple minutes to catch yourself up on all things NBA betting.

Los Angeles Lakers (14-4, 1st in West)

Need to Know: The Lakers are reigning NBA Champions and are the favorites to repeat again in the summer of 2021. At age 36, LeBron James is still extremely productive – ranking inside the top-25 in points, rebounds, and assists. His player efficiency rating ranks 15th.

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: Los Angeles plays some excellent defense – ranking 2nd in the NBA in opponents points per game with 104.5. The Lakers’ opponents shoot just 44.7% from the field (6th-lowest) and get blocked 6.4 times per game (3rd-highest). Anthony Davis is a beast inside, ranking top-5 in blocks per game and top-20 in gobbling up boards.

538 Season Projection: 52-20 (1st in West)

Utah Jazz (12-4, 3rd in West)

Need to Know: The Jazz are finding success in 2020-21 due to their stifling defense. Utah allows just 106.1 points per game to their opponents – 3rd-lowest in the league. Rudy Gobert controls the paint – ranking 3rd in the league in rebounds per game (13.5) and 2nd in blocks (2.7).

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: The Utah Jazz hold the highest ATS win rate in the NBA at 68.8%. Utah is deadly at home – boasting both SU and ATS home records of 5-2. The Jazz have early-season wins against the Clippers, Bucks, and Nuggets whose records combine to 33-17.

538 Season Projection: 48-24 (T-2nd in West)

Los Angeles Clippers (13-4, 2nd in West)

Need to Know: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both top-20 scorers while 23-year-old center Ivica Zubac ranks 32nd in player efficiency rating (21.1). The Clippers are a good team, no doubt, but appear to be a step behind their intracity rivals once again this season.

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: Los Angeles is solid offensively – averaging the 8th-most points in basketball (113.9 per game), the 4th-highest field goal percentage (48.0%), and the top 3-point percentage (41.8%). Defensively, the Clippers can lock it down when they need to. LA is tied for 4th in the NBA in opponent points scored with 107.3 per game.

538 Season Projection: 48-24 (T-2nd in West)

Philadelphia 76’ers (12-6, 1st in East)

Need to Know: The Sixers are out in front of the Eastern Conference and are seeking their first championship since 2000-01 when Allen Iverson ran the league. Big man Joel Embiid is the driving force behind Philly’s success this season – posting career highs in field goal percentage (54.6%), 3-point percentage (40%), and free throw percentage (83.4%).

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: Philly is a top-10 scoring team in the NBA – averaging 113.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting (7th in the league). One big drawback in the Sixers’ offense is a high turnover rate of 15.4 per game which is the 3rd-most in the NBA. Turnovers will doom a team attempting to make a deep postseason run, and this issue must be addressed before Philly goes to navigate a loaded Eastern Conference playoff bracket.

538 Season Projection: 47-25 (1st in East)

Milwaukee Bucks (10-6, T-2nd in East)

Need to Know: As a dominant team in the weaker conference, the Bucks enter most of their contests as large favorites. The average line in a Bucks’ game this season is -8.1. Milwaukee has begun 8 of their games as double-digit favorites – two more than the Lakers.

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: Milwaukee can score the basketball. In a league which determines its winners by the amount of points scored – Milwaukee is in good shape to win a lot of games. The Bucks shoot the highest percentage from the field in the NBA (49.0%) and are tied with Brooklyn as the third-best 3-point shooting team (39.5%).

538 Season Projection: 46-26 (2nd in East)

Denver Nuggets (10-7, 4th in West)

Need to Know: Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is an absolute monster. This “stretch 5” is nearly averaging a triple-double. Jokic’s 25.2 points per game ranks 15th in the NBA, his 11.8 rebounds ranks 6th, and his 8.9 assists ranks 3rd. That’s right … he’s a center and he is the third-best passer in the league. Don’t care about the raw stats? More of an efficiency guy? Jokic is currently #1 in the Association in Player Efficiency Rating (30.5).

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: The Nuggets can drop a boatload of points on anyone. Denver averages 116.4 points per game which ranks 3rd in the NBA. A major source of these points are easy putbacks created by a 2nd-best rate of 11.6 offensive rebounds per game.

538 Season Projection: 45-27 (4th in West)

Brooklyn Nets (11-8, 5th in East)

Need to Know: After acquiring James Harden and creating an unstoppable (on paper) trio, the Nets have shot up to #2 in teams most likely to win the NBA title on Bovada. Harden and Durant reunite from their days on the OKC Thunder while Kyrie Irving grows progressively weirder.

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: Buckets are pouring into Brooklyn this year. The Nets average the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA with 119.1 – 2nd only to the Bucks. The Nets’ balance of interior scorers and floor spacers allow them to shoot 48.8% from the field (2nd) and 39.5% from deep (T-3rd).

538 Season Projection: 44-28 (T-3rd in East)

Boston Celtics (10-6, T-2nd in East)

Need to Know: Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have each made the leap from role player to superstar. Brown is 7th in the NBA in points per game this season with 27.1 while Tatum is right behind him in 11th place with 26.5 ppg. Brown is the more efficient scorer with a 52.2% field goal percentage but Tatum collects more rebounds (6.8) and assists (3.8).

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: Much has been made of the defensive struggles in Boston this year. The Celtics have allowed 100+ points in each of their last 6 contests – losing 4 of these. Overall, Boston is allowing 109.9 points per game to their opponents which is the 11th-best mark in the league. This stat is a bit misleading, however, as Boston began the season with some strong defensive performances but are getting worse as the season progresses. This is definitely something to keep an eye on as very few teams have ever gone deep into the postseason with a bad defense.

538 Season Projection: 44-28 (T-3rd in East)

Miami Heat (6-10, 13th in East)

Need to Know: Early-season injuries to Jimmy Butler and other large contributors have made it tough for the Heat to get going this season. This crew advanced all the way to the NBA Finals in the bubble last year before being slayed by King James. With the whole team returning, expectations are sky high in South Beach once again. FiveThirtyEight projects a 6th-place finish and a winning record for Miami. I am on board with this prediction given the easy wins Miami can scoop up during Eastern Conference play.

Early Strengths/Weaknesses: The Heat boast a deep, balanced roster. Jimmy Butler is the biggest name on the team but he lacks the talent of more notable superstars. The lack of an elite, go-to player could be considered a weakness, especially in a league where superstars earn playoff wins.

538 Season Projection: 37-35 (6th in East)