The Miami Dolphins are a bad football team. I was on Killersports earlier to search for the last team to lose their first two games of the season by 40+. The search yielded no results.
The Fins franchise is a mess. Coaches have already been fired. Players want out. As astute NFL bettors, all this drama can work in our favor. No one believes in Miami right now, which gives them value.
It is very difficult to look at the body of “work” the Dolphins have put in this year and say Yeah! That’s the team I want to put my hard-earned money on this week. Numbers have no emotions, and they say it’s a good idea to bet the Fins. I can’t believe I’m advising this, but I’m going in big on the Miami spread this weekend. Here’s why:
Who Doesn’t Want 23 Free Points?
The Fins are +23 on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. 23 points. That’s an enormous lead for an NFL team to build up – even against a bad team.
Vegas should know better. You can’t just create a ludicrous line like that and expect it to hold. 5 times in the past 3 decades have we seen a 3-touchdown point spread in the NFL. The underdog has won ATS all 5 times.
This is a good omen for Miami spread bettors, but it gets even more encouraging.
Double Whammy
The Dolphins have hit rock bottom – coming off 2 blowout losses. The Cowboys are riding high after 2 wins against division opponents. This is the perfect storm. Miami is undervalued and Dallas overvalued.
Since 1999, underdogs off consecutive double-digit losses are 29-24 (54.7%) ATS against teams off consecutive double-digit wins. That win percentage jumps up into the 60s if you narrow the search to games early in the NFL season.
Once again, the numbers are screaming at us to back Miami ATS.
Who Exactly Are We Betting?
I’ll be honest with you. If you would have asked me before the season to name as many Dolphins players as I could without looking it up, I would have gotten Ryan Fitzpatrick and … um …
I’m not alone here. When you bet on the Dolphins, you need a few players to ball out. Here is who I see having big games on Sunday against Dallas.
Kenyan Drake
The 25-year-old running back from Bama is heavily used in the Dolphins offense. Through 2 games, Drake has carried the ball 10 times while catching 7 passes out of the backfield. If 17 touches does not sound like a lot to you, just know that it leads the team – with the next closest player being Kalen Ballage with 11.
Dallas has a strong running game. This allows them to hold the ball, move down the field, tire out the defense, and score points. Miami cannot play fast on offense or their defense will never get any time to rest.
The Dolphins need to slow their pace and sustain long drives if they hope to have a chance. Drake is going to get tons of looks in this game. If Drake can total around 100 scrimmage yards and score a touchdown or two, the Dolphins are going to win ATS.
Taco Charlton
Newly claimed off waivers from Dallas, the 24-year-old D-end from Michigan is yet to play his first game for Miami. At this point, it is still unclear if Charlton will face his old team on Sunday or wait until Week 4 to debut.
Regardless of his amount of playing time, Charlton will be an excellent resource in this game. If he plays, look for him to try extra super-duper hard and stick it to his old team. Even if he does not play, he will be providing valuable insight to his teammates that only a former-Cowboy would be able to provide.
Miami won’t dominate the game, but they should be able to give Dallas a 4-quarter fight. Take the Dolphins +23.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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