How To Bet Imbalanced NFL Teams

Building an NFL team to be a contender is more difficult than ever, with a salary cap that is increasingly being consumed by quarterback salaries. Teams have to decide in many cases if they want to have a good quarterback and a good offense or a good defense without a good quarterback. These decisions can lead to plenty of imbalanced teams, with weaknesses on one side of the ball or the other. Knowing how to approach betting these imbalanced teams is a great way to make money betting on the NFL.

There are two main types of imbalanced teams in the NFL. First, there is the team that has a good defense and a bad offense. This team either hasn’t figured things out at the quarterback position yet or just doesn’t want to spend the money on an elite option and is willing to settle for less to spend as much as possible improving the rest of the roster.

How to bet these defensively stout but offensively challenged teams is to know how to approach them relative to the lines that are being put out on their games and developing an NFL betting system around it. If these teams are typically made to be big underdogs, they could be worth backing thanks to a defense that can limit opponents from putting up big numbers against them. This is all very matchup dependent, but as a general thought process, it has the chance to be successful.

On the other hand, you have teams with strong offenses and defenses that are lacking. These teams tend to attract public money and attention, as recreational bettors tend to flock to teams that can put up tons of points even if they also give up tons of points. These teams could be good to bet against as big favorites as they always have the potential to give up a touchdown late in a game to produce a cover for their opponents. Conversely, seeing where their lines are too soft often produces profits as well, while they are a threat to set scoring records.

Finding out which teams are good offensively and defensively, and which ones are not, requires some digging. Using advanced metrics like DVOA, while looking at per-play yardage statistics and other bettor-approved stats is a more effective technique than just relying on your perception of a team based on what you have seen of them. But no matter what your handicapping method is for determining which teams are good and bad on each side of the ball, keeping an inventory of these things and adjusting your expectations after each game is important.

Once you have identified which teams are good on offense and defense, and which teams are not, you will have a better understanding of where teams have mismatches working for or against them heading into a game. And while applying those findings doesn’t always lead to wins against the spread, it can maximize a bettor’s chances to place winning NFL bets throughout their history, which can lead to the long-term profits that every serious sports bettor wants to secure.