How Important Is Yards Per Play?

When you pay attention to content related to sports betting these days, you probably hear about yards per play. At least, if you are consuming sports betting content that is worth paying attention to, you are hearing about yards per play. It is a great way to measure the true efficiency of an offense, but just how important is yards per play when you are handicapping NFL games?

In short, yards per play is very important for handicappers. The reason it is so important is the fact that it provides a clearer picture on how a team is performing on offense than other statistics. Sure, yards per game is a statistic that demonstrates how far a team is moving the ball on average, but it can be easily compromised in a number of ways that dilute its value.

For example, if a team goes up 24-0 at halftime, they aren’t going to be as aggressive offensively as they would be in a close game. That means that their yards per play will be lower than a team that has been playing in a tight game from start to finish, in theory. The LA Rams are a great example of this, as they have been leading in many of their games by a large margin, deflating their yards per game relative to what they are capable of.

That is even more true when you are dealing with teams that are trailing big in NFL games, as their yards per game numbers can skew the perception of a team.

If you are down big in a game, you are likely to be airing the ball out to try and make up that deficit in a hurry. That passing-focused tactic will usually lead to a higher yards per game average, but won’t have as big an impact on a team’s yards per play, as running more plays will offset the artificially boosted yardage totals.

When putting together your NFL betting systems, using yards per play is a great idea, as it can shine a light on what a team is doing well offensively and what they need to work on. It is important not to put too much stock into these numbers, as they depend so much on matchups and other factors that make a team effective or ineffective with the run or pass on a week-to-week basis.

These numbers aren’t effective without evaluating how a team matches up against their opponent, though. A team can average a dozen yards per play passing the ball, but if they are facing a team with the best pass defense in the NFL, they might be in for a difficult day. This is where yards per play on defense is worth looking at, as these metrics can tell you a lot about both offenses and defenses.

Most importantly, yards per play can show you where betting lines are inefficient. That is extremely valuable, as finding where there is a chance to make money by spoting market inefficiencies is a huge dimension to NFL betting.