How Are the Titans Allowing the Fewest Points in the NFL?

At 4-4, the Titans are the epitome of a mediocre NFL team. They find themselves in second place in the weak AFC South division, but 1.5 games back of the surging Texans.

Tennessee peculiarly cleaned house this past offseason after a 10-6 regular season record and a playoff victory. The football world is likely focusing on the ramifications of this decision and overlooking a key statistic about this year’s Titans – they have the best defense in the NFL.

Allowing just 141 points through their first 8 games, the Titans lead the NFL in both total points allowed and points per game allowed. How have they improved so much on this side of the ball? I dug up some defensive numbers to help answer that question.

	Total	2018 NFL Rank
Pts/G Allowed	17.6	1st
Yds/G Allowed	333.5	8th
Pass Yds/G Allowed	226.3	8th
Rush Yds/G Allowed	107.3	16th

So it looks like Tennessee’s pass defense is quite solid but their rush defense is very average. These are not the marks of the league’s #1 defense. These numbers obviously do not tell the full story. There has to be something else contributing to this unit’s success.

Tennessee Stifles Opponents Because of This …

I figured it had to be turnovers. So often turnovers are the difference between a good defense and a bad one. I was surprised to see that the Titans are not forcing many.

	Takeaways	Turnovers
Total	9	10
2018 NFL Rank	19th	10th

Takeaways can help immensely in keeping the opponent off the board. They are a cure-all. You can give up yards in chunks but surrender few points if you routinely force turnovers.

When I saw that Tennessee was not forcing turnovers at a high rate, I looked at the turnovers that they committed. I figured that their secret might be the fact that they never turn the ball over and never give their opponents a short field. Once again I was wrong.

The Titans have actually turned it over more this season than they have taken it away. How on Earth are their defensive numbers so good then? It must be time of possession.

Controlling the ball is a great defensive strategy. When you have the ball, the other team cannot score. That used to be called the Peyton Manning defense. When he was in his prime, the Colts’ defense was able to stay well rested while Manning held the ball on offense.

Another head scratcher – the Titans are mediocre at possessing the ball as well. Averaging just 30:03 of possession per game (17th in the NFL), Tennessee definitely is not running the Peyton Manning defense.

I had one more idea. I thought that maybe Tennessee’s defense was so good because of their performance in the red zone. After all, you can let a team drive down the field all game, but if you hold them to field goals you will still fare very well.

It turns out this was the key to the Titans’ success all along.

The Titans boast an immaculate red zone defense, allowing a touchdown a mere 31.8% of the time when their opponent gets inside the 20.

We finally found the culprit! Why is Tennessee so good at red zone defense, though? Is it a fluke?

The Titans Personnel is Built for the Red Zone

Teams with strong red zone defense are typically blessed with a secondary that can play downhill and is not afraid to make tackles. You do not have to worry about getting beat deep when you are defending inside the 20. Strong, physical corners and safeties excel here. The Titans have a couple of these.

Safety Kevin Byard loves to play the run and has already piled up 40 tackles at the halfway point, the 4th highest total on the team. Corner Malcolm Butler has amassed 37 tackles (5th on the team) while also leading the team in pass deflections.

These two versatile players make it very difficult for opponents to bounce runs outside the tackles in the red zone.

Linebackers Jayon Brown and Wesley Woodyard have seemingly been involved on every play this year, currently 1st and 2nd on the team in tackles respectively. The following chart shows the duo’s numbers along with their team rank this season in that category.

	Tackles	Sacks	TFL
Brown	51 (1st)	4 (1st)	4 (2nd)
Woodyard	47 (2nd)	2 (4th)	1 (7th)

Jayon Brown has absolutely put the team on his back over the first half, but he is helped by one of the big fellas up front, defensive tackle Jurrell Casey.

	Tackles	Sacks	TFL
Casey	35 (6th)	3.5 (2nd)	6 (1st)

The Casey-Brown combo has given quarterbacks and ball carriers nightmares all year. This defense is a tad on the slow side, but it built perfectly for stout red zones stands, which is exactly what the Titans have excelled in.

Next time you go to bet a game involving the Titans, remember why Tennessee’s defense is so stingy. Do not expect them to force continuous three-and-outs, but do keep in mind that they only allow touchdowns 31.8% of the time in the red zone.

This will be especially useful for prop bets based on yardage gained and live betting.