Guest Pickers Choose Winners for NFL Wild Card Weekend Games

Who should I bet on Wild Card weekend? That’s a Kurt question. Check out his takes and Wagerbop’s official NFL picks.

Right here, though, we’re trying something new this week. In addition to our usual look at the trends and stats behind NFL Playoffs matchups, I’ve invited a couple of guests to weigh in on the Wild Card games – giving us a finger on the pulse of the nation.

Think you can pick NFL games better than the pros? Below, we give a couple of amateurs the opportunity to pick the straight-up winners of this weekend’s slate of 6 NFL Wild Card Playoff games.

This will be a refreshing twist here at Wagerbop as you’ll get to hear voices other than Kurt or myself give their opinions on the 6-game lineup which spans Saturday afternoon to Monday night.

The fun doesn’t stop with picking the games. Our little makeshift 3-person team will be at the Cowboys-Bucs game live Monday night. As such, we won’t divulge our TB-DAL picks here. We’ll give extra special coverage to this game later in the week along with exclusive content from inside Raymond James Stadium.

Let’s meet our guest pickers for this weekend:

Brittany couldn’t have cared less about sports a few years ago, but made the mistake of marrying an avid sports bettor. Being forced to watch game after game, she’s starting to pick up on how things work.

CONS: Very limited sports knowledge. PROS: Very limited sports knowledge.

 

Sure, she doesn’t know the teams or players as well as folks who’ve been following the NFL their entire lives, but this means she approaches each matchup with fresh eyes and non-clouded judgment.

There’s an old joke about a guy who lost 5 figures every single year betting on football. He was getting gouged – couldn’t win to save his life.

His friend suggests that maybe he switch sports – give baseball a try. “Baseball?! But I don’t know anything about baseball!”

Just because you know a sport doesn’t mean you can bet on it successfully. And vice versa.

 

 

Tim has always been a casual sports fan. His friends have piqued his interest in sports betting over the past year or two.

CONS: His main sports watching years were in the 1980s and 90s – so he thinks the Bears and Giants are great and that the Redskins still exist. PROS: Lives in Florida and suffered through over 2 decades of losing seasons by Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa. Knows how to diagnose teams that are sure to lose.

 

SEA (+10) @ SF – Total at 42.5 – Spread Opened at +6.5

What Happened in the Regular Season?

The 49ers thoroughly handled Seattle in both 2022 meetings – Week 2 and Week 15.

Jimmy G was under center way back in Week 2. The game was in Santa Clara – as it will be this weekend. The 49ers beat Seattle 27-7 with a balanced offensive approach that day. This marked only the 2nd time San Fran had held serve at home against Seattle in their last 8 matchups.

The Seahawks were held to just 36 yards rushing in this game. That would turn out to be Seattle’s lowest rushing output of the season.

Week 15 in Seattle felt so different, although the result was basically the same. Brock Purdy was now the Niners quarterback. San Fran also had Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

The Niners dominated 21-13, holding Seattle this time to 70 rushing yards while McCaffrey scampered for 108 and added another 30 yards of offense catching passes out of the backfield.

In 2 games against the 49ers, Seattle was held to a total of 106 yards on the ground. The key to success for Seattle on Wild Card Weekend is establishing the run. More on this below.

Key Betting Trends in Seahawks-49ers Game

There is an old adage which claims it is difficult to beat a team 3 times in a row. There may be something to this, but we don’t have a large enough sample size to tell for sure.

Since 2006, teams who swept a divisional opponent and then had to beat them a 3rd time in the postseason are 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS. Neither are profitable marks.

Narrow this search down to sweeps in which both wins were also ATS wins (as this year’s SEA-SF games were), and said teams are 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS. Again, neither of these win rates are high enough to turn a profit.

I especially trust the results from 1 of these 6 games because it was very recent. These very 49ers found themselves in this exact situation last postseason – squaring off with the Rams in the NFC Championship game after handling LA twice during the regular season.

San Francisco led 17-7 in the 4th quarter but ultimately dropped the game 20-17. Of course, the Rams would go on to win the Super Bowl. Might have to lean Seahawks considering this little tidbit.

Establishing the Run Saturday is of the Utmost Importance for Seattle

The Seahawks were held to 90 or fewer rushing yards 8 times in 2022. This is tied with Minnesota for the 2nd-most among NFC Playoff teams (Tampa had 12 such games). This is one stat you don’t want to be leading the league in.

All teams play much better when they can run the football. The Seahawks are obviously no exception. Seattle was 3-5 and scored 20.6 points per game when held under 90 rushing yards but was 6-3 with 26.9 points per contest when they rushed for more than 100 yards.

To boot, Santa Clara forecasts are calling for rain and lots of it. Ground and pound will be the strat. We already know that San Francisco can establish the run against anybody. The Niners were held under 90 only 3 times in 2022, and all 3 came in the pre-McCaffrey era.

Kreighton’s Moneyline Pick: Seattle Seahawks. I’d love to take the (+10) spread, but that’s not what we’re doing here. We’re picking straight-up winners. I could cite the whole “beat a team 3 times” thing for my pick, but I’m putting more stock in the fact that both road teams and 6/7 seeds fare very well in Wild Card Weekend according to our 2022-23 NFL Playoffs Betting Guide.

Our Guest Moneyline Picks:

 

Brittany: Previous records. The Seahawks have had awesome success against the 49ers in the past. She’s right. The Seahawks are 6-2 in their last 8 games at San Francisco.

Tim: Following the conventional wisdom here. Brock Purdy has been hot and Seattle’s weak defense could allow San Francisco to run up the score. Also, the Niners defense can smother Geno Smith.

 

LAC (-2) @ JAX – Total at 47.5 – Spread Opened at -1.5

What Happened in the Regular Season?

The Jags flew out to take on the Chargers back in Week 4 as 6.5-point dogs and delivered a 38-10 whoopin’ in SoFi. This 28-point loss was LA’s worst, by far, of the season. Their next-biggest losses were by 14, 7 and 6 respectively. It may have happened all the way back in Week 4, but the Chargers definitely remember this beatdown.

Los Angeles HC Brandon Staley will give some sort of passive, political answer if he’s ever asked the question, but you can be sure he’s looking to avenge that loss and possibly run up the score right back on Doug Pederson if the opportunity presents itself.

Key Betting Trends in Chargers-Jaguars Game

Since 2003, 22 non-divisional teams have rematched in the postseason with someone who beat them by 20+ earlier in the year. Revenge is not typically on the menu. Said teams are 3-19 SU and only 11-11 ATS. No bounce backs here.

Let’s apply some filters. First, what about looking only at road teams? Ouch, we shouldn’t have done that. Road playoff teams in this situation are 1-14 SU and 8-7 ATS (53.3%).

What about only favorites? Turns out it is very rare for a team to have lost by 20 earlier in the season and then be favored in the rematch, but it happened 4 times since 2010. These teams are 0-4 both SU and ATS.

Kreighton’s Moneyline Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags are hot (5-game win streak) plus have the whole blowout thing working in their favor. Also, our 2022-23 NFL Playoffs Betting Guide shows that home underdogs are very good picks.

Our Guest Moneyline Picks:

Brittany: The Jaguars have beaten the Chargers in so many of their previous meetings over the last several years.

Tim:

– The Lawrence/Herbert match up is good, but Lawrence will hold up better than Herbert…but it’ll be close.

– Lawrence is leading JAX on a storybook run and that momentum will give him/them an edge.

– Despite being on a hot streak, Lawrence’s passing game struggled last week, so he’s likely to be fired up. 

– LA’s strong defense will limit Lawrence’s success in the air, which makes me nervous to pick them…but having Etienne being in the mix will be invaluable and I’m hoping that’ll make enough of a difference to put JAX over the top.

– HOWEVER…coming off of 5 wins in a row, JAX may be overconfident…and JAX’s weak defense will allow Herbert to have some success in the passing game.

MIA (+13) @ BUF – Total at 43.5 – Spread Opened at +10.5

What Happened in the Regular Season?

The Dolphins won a crazy Week 3 game 21-19 in the sweltering heat at Hard Rock Stadium – dealing the Bills their only loss until Week 9.

Buffalo returned the favor in Week 15 – edging the Dolphins in a 32-29 snow game. This would end up being the 2nd-to-last game Tua Tagovailoa played this season.

It’s a shame Miami couldn’t keep their star quarterback healthy because this game could be SO GOOD if it was Tua vs Allen in the 3-match.

As it currently stands, Tua is a no go. 2nd-stringer Teddy Bridgewater is also a no go. The onus falls on rookie 7th-round pick Skylar Thompson to lead his Fins into battle against the team with the 2nd-highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC, per FiveThirtyEight.

More on what this means for Miami below. By the way, it’s supposed to be very cold in Buffalo this weekend.

Key Betting Trends in Dolphins-Bills Game

This little chart here was created with help from Stathead. Contained in this beauty are the largest ever Wild Card Weekend underdogs.

Sunday’s 13-point spread in the Dolphins-Bills game is tops all-time for Wild Card Weekend. Here is a look at the 5 largest Wild Card spreads and the results of those ball games.

Year	Spread	Underdog	Fave	Score	SU / ATS
2022-23	+13	MIA	BUF	–	– / –
2021-22	+12.5	PIT	KC	21-42	L / L
2020-21	+11	CHI	NO	9-21	L / L
2016-17	+11	MIA	PIT	12-30	L / L
2012-13	+11	MIN	GB	10-24	L / L
2011-12	+10.5	DET	NO	28-45	L / L
1995-96	+10.5	PHI	SF	0-14	L / L

Pretty cut and dry. Bills are the play here. Don’t get cute. These big faves don’t lose.

Skylar Thompson (and Brock Purdy, too, I guess) Will be Making History This Weekend

It may seem hypocritical that I’m giving Skylar Thompson some extra attention here when Brock Purdy is literally about to do the same thing (and a day earlier), but that’s life. Because both Tua and Teddy can’t go Sunday, 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson will be pressed into action in Buffalo.

Purdy of the 49ers is in the same boat, technically, but it feels so different. Both will be the first 7th-round picked rookies to start in the NFL since the merger. 5th round was the lowest we had previously gone for a rookie QB starting in a playoff game.

The reason it feels so different is that Brock Purdy has already played in 9 games in 2022 and put up amazing stats. 1,374 passing yards. A 13-4 TD-INT ratio. And let’s not forget 9 straight wins.

Thompson has made just a couple of appearances in 2022 and those were to little fanfare. He’ll probably be wide-eyed in the 1st quarter Sunday. You’d like to think Brock Purdy won’t be.

Kreighton’s Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills. We offered the allure of 2 wins in our pick ’em contest if you take the Dolphins … but that’s not enough of an incentive for me. Pretty nice to not have to pick against the spread in lopsided ones like this.

Our Guest Moneyline Picks:

An easy one.

 

NYG (+3) @ MIN – Total at 48 – Spread Has Not Moved

What Happened in the Regular Season?

Hmm, let’s see. Were the 2022 Vikings involved in a football game? Yes. Were the 2022 Giants involved? Oh, also yes? Then it was surely close.

The New York Giants are tied for the most 1-score games in football this season (13). Minnesota is right there with 11.

The Vikings somehow managed to win every single close ball game they played this year for a perfect SU record of 11-0 in 1-score games. The Giants were 8-4-1 in such games.

Obviously, that means Minnesota prevailed in this one. The final was 27-24 with a wild back-and-forth 4th quarter. This occurred very recently, back in Week 16. New York will make the trip to Minneapolis for the 2nd time in 21 days, and Vegas sees another 3-point loss.

How does our panel see it going down at US Bank Stadium this time around?

Kreighton’s Moneyline Pick: New York Giants. I hate how the Vikings have gotten lucky and won every single close game. Don’t try to tell me it’s skill. It’s not. I’m not putting my hard-earned money on Kirk Cousins and a rookie head coach.

Our Guest Moneyline Picks:

Brittany: The Vikings have already beaten the Giants this year and have a really good record against New York in the past.

Tim: NY matches up well against MIN despite their Christmas Eve loss. That game was tight (MIN squeaked it out with a long FG).  And now with that recent loss, NY has the revenge factor going for them…and they match-up well enough to be able to make revenge a reality.  MIN’s main weakness is their defense which won’t be able to stop NY enough.

HOWEVER…the game is in MIN…and Cousins seems to be able to make things happen when it matters this season…and MIN manages to win close games.  All these “however’s” is why my confidence level for this game is a 1 (out of 5).

BAL (+8) @ CIN – Total at 41 – Spread Opened at +6.5

What Happened in the Regular Season?

Baltimore took it to the Bengals 19-17 at full strength back in Week 5. This game took place 2 eternities ago in NFL time. So much has changed. For one, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson played in this game. Also, you must remember that this contest took place before the Bengals hit their stride (AFC Championship Game hangover, and all).

The 2nd Ravens-Bengals matchup took place just last week at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati – the exact location of this upcoming Wild Card Weekend showdown. The Bengals prevailed 27-16 in a backup-ridden farce in which neither team wanted to tip their hand too much and spoil postseason secret weapons.

It is quite rare for divisional opponents to meet for a 3rd time in the postseason and have so little for handicappers to go off of. Neither their Week 5 nor their Week 18 bout mean anything.

Cincinnati and Baltimore may as well be meeting for the first time on Sunday night because that’s how it is going to feel.

Key Betting Trends in Ravens-Bengals Game

There are 2 trends that matter here. Baltimore is 2-3 without Lamar. The Bengals are on an 8-game winning streak.

Kreighton’s Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati Bengals. I wanted to take the Ravens for the upset sooooo bad. No one believes in them, which creates good value in the betting market. I’ll be kicking myself if the Ravens do pull it off, but I can’t justify a bet against Joe Burrow and these Bengals when no spread is involved. Easy decision in a SU pick ’em contest.

Our Guest Moneyline Picks:

Brittany: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is out.

Tim:

– Unusual events often do weird things to the psychology of a team and it’s likely that Week 17 aborted game against BUF will give an advantage to CIN:  they will be fired up to complete a game…and complete it with a win.

– BAL’s Jackson doesn’t look like he’ll be able to start…but even if he did start, CIN would still have the edge.

– Both teams have good defenses, but CIN’s Burrow-driven offense will find more opportunities.

– HOWEVER…BAL’s killer defense may mess Burrow up enough to clear a path for BAL to eke out a win.

Remember to check back in later this week for our picks, prop bets and in-stadium coverage for Cowboys-Buccaneers.