Friday Night FBS: Betting on the Mountain West in Prime Time

Imagine you time-traveled from mid-August to mid-October, and learned that the Colorado State Rams were a 3-to-4-score underdog at Boise State. That’s normal, right?

Except that the Broncos are only 4-2, lost unexpectedly to a gutted San Diego State team, were blown away by Oklahoma State…and yet somehow retain an overwhelming advantage against CSU.

At least according to Las Vegas.

Let’s examine the point spread more closely. Boise State vs Colorado State is 1 of 2 prime-time Mountain West Conference match-ups this Friday night, and both offer wide point spreads to gamblers. But the (-23.5) line attached to the Boise Blue is by far the bigger margin between the 2 favorites.

The spread on the 9 PM Eastern blue-turf kickoff opened half of a point higher, but weirdly, action has tilted slightly toward the 3-4 Rams while the O/U total has shot up to (61.5). Typically an upset bid is correlated with a lower-scoring contest.

Boise State squeaked by Nevada last weekend and whipped Wyoming 2 weeks before that, but in early October the Broncos hosted a decimated SDSU backfield and gave up 154 rushing yards while not managing 60 of their own. Rocky Long’s Aztecs have a physical front-7 and a well-coached defense, but the performance still wasn’t acceptable from a program that considers itself the cream of mid-majors and indomitable on the Blue.

So why is CSU such a heavy underdog? The Rams lost to little Illinois State a couple of weeks ago, and have won 2 of 2 games since then over MWC opponents San Jose State and New Mexico. The loss to the FCS was no fun, but it happens to FBS schools large and small, and consider that Colorado State’s schedule has been surprisingly tough. Not only is New Mexico waking up, but the Rams have played Arkansas (and won) along with Hawaii, Colorado and Florida. CSU signal-caller K.J. Carta-Samuels has thrown 16 TD passes.

Brett Rypien is an even better QB, and bettors think he’ll light it up this weekend. But I’m liking the slightly-underrated Rams to cover and lose by 7 to 20 points.

In Friday evening’s later kickoff the Air Force Falcons travel to play the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas as (-13) favorites. But I’m not sure if they’ve done quite enough this season to justify the line, even against an average team.

The Falcons’ opening win over Stony Brook was more or less routine, and was the prelude to an o-3 start in the Mountain West. Air Force gave up almost 500 yards of offense and didn’t get much production out of the QB spot, an even more key component in the Falcon offense than a normal QB chair, in a 10-point loss to Utah State.

Similar frustrations were felt against Nevada as the unit rushed for 3.0 ypc (a disaster for an option team) and couldn’t throw worth a lick either in a 28-25 defeat.

San Diego State beat Air Force last weekend in a dramatic contest that was predictably low-scoring, thanks to the Falcons’ inability to put a backfield together, and the Aztecs’ inability to keep one healthy.

But in the non-conference schedule the academy has fared much better. The Falcons whipped the heck out of Navy by several scores and played hard-hitting football in a 33-27 loss to Florida Atlantic.

Where are they headed at QB? Not back to promising Donald Hammond III, who was injured in the SDSU scrum.

Meanwhile the hosts have lost 3 in a row, including 2 lopsided losses and a 24-27 upset at the hands of Arkansas State. But I’m not convinced UNLV is a (+13) underdog in reality. Remember that against less-burly defenses like Air Force, an offense that isn’t athletic compared to Alabama or Oklahoma can still win the line of scrimmage, just as the Rebels won on the line for 3 quarters before Air Force came back to win last season.

UNLV rushed for 7+ yards per carry against USC in Week 1. If they can do that, they can potentially rush for 10+ yards a pop vs Air Force.

Strangely enough, the 2 favorites on this Friday’s slate could make a decent moneyline parlay. It’s doubtful that Rypien will let another disaster befall his Broncos before a worthy bowl bid becomes just a fantasy, and I give the academy an 80% or better chance to win straight-up.

But I’m feeling underdog-to-cover in both match-ups.

As always in October, thousands of teenage teams will triumph or suffer heartbreak under Friday Night Lights. However, this week’s concurrent college football slate may include some drama of its own – just a little more than Vegas is anticipating.