The Packers stomped Tennessee and the Bills kicked the Patriots while they were down to close out Week 16 – leaving us with just 1 more week to solidify the 2020-21 NFL playoff bracket.
Trivia question: Name the only team in the NFL with absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17.
The answer: Kansas City. The Chiefs have already clinched the top seed in the AFC. All other teams are fighting for either playoff positioning or draft order.
3 of the divisions in the NFC are spoken for. Green Bay has had the North locked up for a while. New Orleans and Seattle just wrapped up business this week.
The NFC East debacle is still ongoing – with 3 of the 4 teams having a shot to play their way in during the final week.
The AFC West, North, and East are also decided – with only the South left to be won in Week 17.
In the NFC, we have 3 teams (Chicago, Arizona, Los Angeles) fighting for 2 Wild Card spots while the AFC features a 5-team lineup (Indianapolis, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami) vying for the final 4 spots.
Week 17 will feature a winner-gets-in game between the Rams and Cardinals while the Giants-Cowboys game will have equal ramifications should Washington be unable to seal the deal on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles.
NFL postseason scenarios and stretch runs are so much fun because the outcome of one game affects multiple others.
Weeks 16 and 17 are the most chaotic and suspenseful weeks of any NFL season. Week 16 lived up to the hype. Here’s to enjoying the finish to a fantastic 2020 NFL regular season!
NFC Playoff Picture
Green Bay Packers 12-3
Clinched NFC North
68% Chance of First-Round Bye
What Needs to Happen for Green Bay to Clinch 1 Seed
Packers win at Chicago in Week 17
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the top seed in the NFC
OR
Packers lose to Bears in Week 17 AND Seahawks lose or tie to 49ers in Week 17
- A Green Bay loss to Chicago in Week 17 would allow both New Orleans and Seattle to catch the Packers at 12-4. Green Bay holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans, but Seattle is the team the Packers must worry about. Green Bay loses both a head-to-head tiebreaker with Seattle or a 3-way tiebreaker with both the Saints and Seahawks.
New Orleans Saints 11-4
Clinched NFC South
25% Chance of First-Round Bye
What Needs to Happen for New Orleans to Clinch 1 Seed
Saints win at Carolina in Week 17 AND Packers lose at Chicago in Week 17 AND Seahawks win at San Francisco in Week 17
- The only way New Orleans can snag the first-round bye is in a 3-way tie scenario with Green Bay and Seattle. If the Packers lose, the Saints need Seattle to win. Otherwise, it will be a 2-way tie atop the conference – Green Bay and New Orleans – which would go to Green Bay based on their Week 3 win in the Superdome.
Seattle Seahawks 11-4
Clinched NFC West
7% Chance of First-Round Bye
What Needs to Happen for Seattle to Clinch 1 Seed
Seahawks win at San Francisco in Week 17 AND the Packers lose at Chicago in Week 17 AND the Saints lose or tie Carolina in Week 17
- Seattle holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with Green Bay and will become the 1 seed if both the Packers and Seahawks finish 12-4. The Saints cannot finish 12-4 because this will force a 3-way tiebreaker scenario between GB-NO-SEA which goes to New Orleans.
Los Angeles Rams 9-6
83% Chance of Wild Card Berth
What Needs to Happen for Los Angeles to Clinch Playoff Berth
Rams win or tie vs Arizona in Week 17
- Despite losses in each of the last 2 weeks, Los Angeles still controls their own destiny. Beating Arizona will be the toughest assignment of the season for Sean McVay’s crew as the Cardinals are in a “win or go home” situation and will be fighting for their playoff lives.
OR
Rams lose to Cardinals in Week 17 AND Bears lose or tie with Packers in Week 17
- A loss to Arizona would still give Los Angeles a two-thirds chance of getting into the postseason. The Bears have a tough draw with Green Bay in Week 17 and would need a victory to clinch a berth.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-5
Clinched Wild Card Berth
Tampa has already clinched a postseason berth and cannot win the NFC South as New Orleans has already clinched. What do Tom Brady and Co. have to play for in Week 17 against Atlanta?
A whole lot. You see, Tampa is fighting for the 5 seed in the NFC. The 5 seed in the NFC gets the easiest Wild Card matchup of the playoffs – maybe in history.
The 5 seed plays the 4 seed, and the NFC 4 seed is either going to be 7-9 Washington, 7-9 Dallas, or 6-10 New York.
It’s not fair, is it? Teams should have been fighting for the 5 seed all along.
What Needs to Happen for Tampa Bay to Clinch 5 Seed
Buccaneers win vs Atlanta in Week 17
- A win in the final week secures the 5 seed for Tampa and a date with the NFC East winner in the Wild Card round.
OR
Buccaneers lose to Atlanta in Week 17 AND the Rams lose to Arizona in Week 17
- If Tampa fails to get the job done, the Rams can steal the easiest playoff draw in postseason history with a win vs Arizona.
Chicago Bears 8-7
34% Chance of Wild Card Berth
What Needs to Happen for Chicago to Clinch Playoff Berth
Bears win vs Green Bay in Week 17
- Chicago controls their own destiny but draws a very tough Week 17 matchup. The Packers have a lot on the line in Week 17 as a win would lock up the first-round bye and home-field throughout the playoffs. We saw on Sunday night how important home-field is to Green Bay.
OR
Bears lose to Green Bay in Week 17 AND Arizona loses to the Rams in Week 17
- Even if Chicago loses to the Packers (which is likely), the Bears still hold a 50/50 chance of getting into the playoffs. The Cardinals-Rams game figures to be a close one and Chicago would get into the playoffs with an Arizona loss. A tie in that game would see Arizona getting in at 8-7-1.
Arizona Cardinals 8-7
49% Chance to Clinch Wild Card Berth
What Needs to Happen for Arizona to Clinch Playoff Berth
Cardinals win at the Rams in Week 17
- A win over their division rival in the final week would put Arizona in the playoffs. In their previous meeting during Week 13, the Rams beat Arizona 38-28 in the desert.
OR
Cardinals tie with the Rams in Week 17 AND the Bears lose to Green Bay in Week 17
- A loss to the LA Rams eliminates Arizona but a tie in the final week puts Arizona’s fate in the hands of the Chicago Bears. A win or tie versus Green Bay would put Chicago into the tournament, a loss would allow Arizona to get in at 8-7-1.
Sorting Out the NFC East Mess
The craziest division race to follow all season has been the NFC East. The motto here is Someone’s Gotta Win.
Preseason, everyone was picking Dallas to come out of the East. Once play began, we quickly realized that Dallas was much better on paper than they were on the field.
For the early portion of the season, it seemed we were going to see a 5 or 6-game division winner in the East. Washington and New York were a combined 2-10 through 6 weeks and Dallas wasn’t much better at 2-4. The Cowboys eventually fell to 2-7. Philly was 1-4-1 before improving to 3-4-1.
Washington hit a hot streak, so did New York. Dallas has turned it on here late. The sad thing is that we may still see a 6-win division winner.
If Washington wins, they’re in at 7-9. Dallas could also get in at 7-9. The Giants, however … oh those Giants … could become the first ever 6-10 division winner. How … fun.
Take a look at the NFC East standings following Week 16 – 3 teams (no Eagles) still have a shot at the playoffs.
With 3 teams still alive for the division, let’s take a look at the scenarios that would see each team grabbing the 4 seed in the NFC.
Washington Re*****s (Football Team) 6-9
52% Chance to Win NFC East
Washington had a chance to clinch last week against the lowly Panthers but Dwayne Haskins got lost on his way to the strip club … and then threw 2 picks once he showed up to the field. Zing!
What Needs to Happen for Washington to Clinch NFC East
Washington wins at Philadelphia in Week 17
- The Re*****s still control their own destiny in the East. A win versus Philly clinches the division. A loss sends the Re*****s packing.
OR
Washington ties with Philadelphia in Week 17 AND the Cowboys lose or tie with the Giants in Week 17
- It is not likely to occur, but a Washington-Philly tie on the final week would eliminate the Giants and put the Re*****s’ fate in the hands of Dallas. If Dallas wins and improves to 7-9, they would be NFC East champions. A loss or tie would send Washington to the postseason with a 6-9-1 record.
Dallas Cowboys 6-9
26% Chance to Win NFC East
Dallas was once 3-9. 3 wins and 9 losses! The Cowboys held just a 5% chance to win the division heading into last week – the lowest odds in the East.
One big victory over the Eagles and a crushing loss by Washington was enough for the Cowboys to gain 21% equity in the division race.
Dallas still needs a lot of help, but America’s Team is the 2nd-most likely NFC East division winner. The Cowboys were the preseason favorite to win the East, but nobody saw it happening like this.
Dallas would be a fun playoff team to watch. Ignore the losing record. This team may finally be starting to get it figured out.
The Cowboys have a veteran quarterback – Andy Dalton – with postseason experience (albeit no postseason victories).
Dallas has weapons both on offense and defense who are more talented than their 6-9 record would indicate. Don’t sleep on Dallas if they manage to sneak their way into the tournament.
What Needs to Happen for Dallas to Clinch NFC East
Cowboys win or tie with the Giants in Week 17 and Washington loses at Philadelphia in Week 17
- A Washington loss in the final week puts the Cowboys in the driver’s seat. A win over New York or a mere tie would get the job done, so long as the Re*****s lose.
OR
Cowboys win at the Giants in Week 17 and Washington ties with Philadelphia in Week 17
- Dallas doesn’t necessarily need a Washington loss in the final week. A tie would do the job, but a tie forces Dallas to beat New York straight up. If both Washington and Dallas tie in Week 17, Washington clinches the East at 6-9-1.
New York Giants 5-10
22% Chance to Win NFC East
New York began this season 1-7 … just 1-7!
Wanna know how many teams have made the playoffs in the past 30 years who started 1-7? Exactly 0! It doesn’t happen … but here we are.
What Needs to Happen for New York to Clinch NFC East
Giants win vs Dallas in Week 17 AND Washington loses at Philadelphia in Week 17
- This is the only scenario which sees New York into the postseason. A win over Dallas and a Re*****s loss would create a 3-way tie atop the division at 6-10. Based on a superior divisional record inside the East, this tie would go to the Giants.
AFC Playoff Picture
Buffalo Bills 12-3
Clinched AFC East
Will Get Either 2 or 3 Seed
Buffalo cannot reach Kansas City (14-1) for the 1 seed but also cannot fall down with all those 10-5 teams for the 4 seed. The Bills will have either the 2 or 3 seed (Pittsburgh gets the other) depending on the action in Week 17.
Buffalo has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Steelers, meaning Pittsburgh must gain a game in the standings on the Bills in order to leapfrog them.
The advantage of being the 2 seed is this: the 2 seed gets home field throughout the playoffs should the Chiefs lose. Also, the 2 seed will not run into the Chiefs as quickly in the bracket.
There isn’t a huge difference between the 2 and the 3 seeds this year, but it can make all the difference in such a competitive conference.
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-3
Clinched AFC North
Will Get Either 2 or 3 Seed
See the “Bills” section above.
Tennessee Titans 10-5
94% Chance to Clinch Playoff Berth
72% Chance to Win AFC South
What Needs to Happen for Tennessee to Clinch AFC South
Titans win at Houston in Week 17
- Tennessee controls their own destiny. A win over Houston in the final week will seal the deal. The Titans really do not want to lose because Indy plays Jacksonville – which is nearly guaranteed to be a Colts victory.
OR
Titans lose or tie with Houston in Week 17 AND the Colts lose to the Jaguars in Week 17
- The Titans would leave the door wide open and the lights on bright if they lose to Houston this week. The Colts draw an extremely easy Week 17 matchup (Jacksonville at home). FiveThirtyEight gives Indy a 90% chance of victory – as sure as it gets in the NFL.
What Needs to Happen for Tennessee to Clinch Playoff Berth
Titans win at Houston in Week 17
- This would clinch the AFC South for the Titans
OR
Titans lose at Houston in Week 17 AND the Dolphins lose at Buffalo in Week 17
OR
Titans lose at Houston in Week 17 AND the Colts lose to Jacksonville in Week 17
OR
Titans lose at Houston in Week 17 AND the Ravens lose at Cincinnati in Week 17
- Not only would a Tennessee loss in Week 17 put the Titans in horrible shape for the division, but it would jeopardize their playoff hopes. The Titans would need a loss by Miami, Indy, or Baltimore to clinch should they themselves lose in the final week.
- The problem is that the Colts play the Jaguars (easy win) while the Ravens play the Bengals (also an easy win). The only realistic place to hope for a loss is the Dolphins going into Buffalo. Tennessee really doesn’t want to see their playoff lives in the hands of Buffalo (a team who doesn’t have much to play for in Week 17). Tennessee needs to win at Houston to feel safe.
Cleveland Browns 10-5
59% Chance to Clinch Wild Card Berth
What Needs to Happen for Cleveland to Clinch Playoff Berth
Browns win vs Pittsburgh in Week 17
- Cleveland controls their own destiny and would be 11-5 and securely in the playoffs with a win against the Steelers
OR
Browns lose vs Pittsburgh in Week 17 AND the Colts lose vs Jacksonville in Week 17
- This is not a very likely scenario as the Jaguars are 1-14 and easily the most pitiful team in the NFL
OR
Browns lose vs Pittsburgh in Week 17 AND the Titans lose at Houston in Week 17 AND the Dolphins win or tie at Buffalo in Week 17 AND the Ravens win or tie at Cincinnati in Week 17
- The scenario gets very complicated for Cleveland if they lose and the Colts win. The Browns would need to force a tiebreaker with Tennessee – and Tennessee alone – at 10-6 in order to sneak into the tournament.
- Cleveland needs Baltimore to win or tie (they cannot finish 10-6) because the Browns get the short end of a 3-way tie between Baltimore-Tennessee-Cleveland.
- Cleveland needs Miami to win or tie (they cannot finish 10-6) because the Browns also get the short end of a 3-way tie between Miami-Tennessee-Cleveland.
Indianapolis Colts 10-5
83% Chance to Clinch Playoff Berth
28% Chance to Clinch AFC South
What Needs to Happen for Indianapolis to Clinch AFC South
Colts win or tie vs Jacksonville in Week 17 AND the Titans lose at Houston in Week 17
- Tennessee controls the head-to-head tiebreaker so Indy must gain a game on the Titans in order to win the division
OR
Colts win vs Jacksonville in Week 17 AND the Titans tie with Houston in Week 17
- A Colts’ win combined with a Tennessee tie would put the Colts a half game up in the South standings and give Indy the division title
What Needs to Happen for Indianapolis to Clinch Playoff Berth
Colts win vs Jacksonville in Week 17 AND either the Ravens, Titans, Browns, or Dolphins don’t win in Week 17
- If the Colts win in Week 17, all it will take is a loss or tie from 1 of the 4 teams above Indy in the standings. The chances all 4 teams (BAL, TEN, CLE, MIA) win is about 7.5% (per FiveThirtyEight).
Miami Dolphins 10-5
72% Chance to Clinch Wild Card Berth
The Dolphins gained 41% playoff equity with their big win over the Raiders last week and Week 16 losses by Cleveland, Tennessee, and Indianapolis.
What Needs to Happen for Miami to Clinch Playoff Berth
Dolphins win at Buffalo in Week 17
- Miami is 1 big win away from clinching a playoff berth, but that one win is a daunting road contest at 12-3 Buffalo. A reason for optimism is that the Bills don’t have a ton to play for in this game.
OR
Dolphins lose at Buffalo in Week 17 AND either the Ravens, Colts, or Browns lose in Week 17
- If Miami loses, they still have a 62% chance of getting into the postseason. This is because losses by 1 of 3 teams could bail the Dolphins out. The problem is that Baltimore plays Cincinnati (a loss isn’t likely) and the Colts play Jacksonville (a loss is extremely unlikely). Miami’s best hope for a loss is the Browns who must host 12-3 Pittsburgh.
Baltimore Ravens 10-5
92% Chance to Clinch Wild Card Berth
What Needs to Happen for Baltimore to Clinch Playoff Berth
Ravens win at Cincinnati in Week 17
- This shouldn’t be an issue for Baltimore who is the far superior team. But the Bengals are on a win streak! Don’t be silly.
OR
Ravens lose at Cincinnati in Week 17 AND the Colts lose at Jacksonville in Week 17
- If the Ravens blow it against the Bengals, they still hold a 55% chance of clinching a spot in the bracket. It will just take some help. I doubt they’ll get help from Jacksonville, however. The Jags appear dead.
OR
Ravens lose at Cincinnati in Week 17 AND the Browns lose to Pittsburgh in Week 17
- This one is far more likely as the Steelers are a tossup against the Brownies.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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