FIBA World Cup Preview: 2023’s Team USA Lineup, Gold Medal Odds, and Futures Picks on Canada and Australia

Alabama’s football coach Nick Saban has been quoted as saying, “Betting lines are not reality.” Under normal circumstances, WagerBop would have many bones to pick with that remark. Often, a sportsbook market is a much better reflection of reality than the breathless hype of screeching sports headlines, or the propaganda of an SEC pigskin coach for that matter. The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup has provided many examples, maybe the foremost being bookmakers’ stubborn refusal to slap prohibitive gold-medal odds on Team Japan. Nadeshiko’s scoring was Oceania’s hottest storyline, and Japan’s betting odds to trip Tre-Kronor in the semi-final round shrank to high risk with enthusiastic bet action. Sportsbooks held off on jacking up Japan’s gold medal futures odds, however. London was proven correct, and Team Japan’s regretful high-rollers proven wrong, when Sweden upset Japan with relative ease in the Q-Finals.

But then there’s times when sportsbooks follow the hype right off a cliff. The 2023 FIBA Men’s World Cup is one of those occasions. Team Canada, among just a few national basketball teams headed to the Far East who are spoiled rich in NBA sharpshooters, is only about a 5-to-1 futures pick to win gold. Team USA’s neophyte roster of talented but green 20-somethings draws the U.S.’s customary 1-to-1 odds.

2023 FIBA World Cup: Futures Odds to Win Gold Medal Game

(Betting Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

USA -115
Canada +460
Australia +1000
France +1200
Serbia +1400
Slovenia +1400
Spain +1400
Greece +1900
Germany +3000
Lithuania +5500
Italy +5500
Dominican Republic +9500
Latvia +13000
Brazil +13000
Georgia.+20000
Jordan +20000
Lebanon +20000
Venezuela +20000
Angola +20000
Iran +20000
Mexico +20000
Egypt +20000
Cape Verde +20000
China +20000
Japan +20000
Cote d’Ivoire +20000
South Sudan +20000
Montenegro +20000
Finland +20000
New Zealand +20000
Philippines +20000
Puerto Rico +20000

Canada’s got a starting lineup that could slice the Philadelphia 76ers in 76 pieces, and a bench that could compete for a summer league championship against NBA backups. Team USA’s roster, even should it prove more athletic than the losing 2019 FIBA World Cup squad, is saddled by so very much inexperience in FIBA and Olympic Games basketball that it could – oh, the horror! – potentially mirror the infamous Athens team. Futures odds signal a Team USA romp in 2023 anyway. In Olympic seasons, the U.S. is always favored.

Coach Larry Brown’s unhappy, unkempt, and unsuccessful Athens Olympics squad could probably still prevail over the FIBA field in a lot of world basketball events. Take note, however, that the 2023 FIBA World Cup will serve as a nearly all-or-nothing qualifying event for the 2024 Paris Olympics. Countries with NBA cagers on their A-list national teams are welcome to show up without them, but it would probably mean missing out on the most prestigious gold-medal opportunity of all at the Summer Olympic Games.

Australia is another nation from which NBA athletes have answered the call to secure an Olympic bid, begging the question of whether multiple teams are drawing inaccurately weak odds next to Team USA. Team Australia is a 10-to-1 gold medal futures pick which would be equally wary of facing Jalen Brunson and the Americans or Jamal Murray and the Canadians in a knockout game. Would the Australians enjoy superior than 10-in-1 chances to beat either team? Barring injury to the starting-5, without a doubt.

Is it Canada’s draw in Group Stage that’s discouraging 5-to-1 wagers? Canuck cagers will compete against powerful France and scrappy Latvia in Group H, while USA Basketball’s ballers compete in the relatively weak Group C against Greece, Jordan, and New Zealand. But the 2023 FIBA World Cup employs a “Double Group Stage” somewhat like old-school Olympics events, with the exception that FIBA adds playoffs at the finish. Supposing the USA does cruise through Round 1, that’s no guarantee the slate won’t turn tough.

Some casual bettors could be overlooking the FIBA World Cup’s double-round Group Stage completely, simply assuming that the FIBA World Cup is like the “FIFA” World Cup with its lone preliminary round followed by knockout bouts. There have to be more reasons why Canada’s not getting more action on winning gold, with the United States team looking as vulnerable as it ever has since before Coach K.

Let’s dive into FIBA’s Group Stage schedules, and look at various futures bets on potential 1st-place preliminary bids.

World Cup Basketball 2023: Preliminary Group Winner Odds and Predictions

Group A Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Italy -146
Dominican Republic +136
Philippines +1500
Angola +5500

There’s only a smattering of NBA talent in Group A, and not many EuroLeague cagers in the quartet outside of Italy’s contingent. FIBA World Ranking plus head-to-head history accounts for the clear line drawn between the 2 favorites’ futures odds and those of Group A’s teams expected to miss Round 2.

Angola still stands as the most infamous patsy in Olympic basketball history. Team Angola was the first (and only) FIBA opponent to get chesty with America’s original Dream Team in 1992, when the African qualifier’s coaches told Olympic Village media that the United States squad led by Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan had “bad fundamentals.” Team Angola did not expect to beat the USA, the head coach cautioned, but felt the NBA Hall-of-Famers would play lazy garbage-time defense while making dunks.

USA coach Chuck Daly warned the Dream Team not to respond in print or interviews. Most of the legendary cagers obeyed. “Angola is a team that scares you,” said Karl Malone with concerned eyes. “We don’t know anything about them, so we’ll have to try to find our game.” But the impish Charles Barkley couldn’t contain himself. “I don’t know anything about Team Angola, except that they’re in trouble,” smiled Sir Charles prior to the USA’s Olympic Group Stage debut. The Dream Team let Angola drain 3 early buckets while organizing a defense, then scored 46 of the game’s next 47 points, holding Angola to under 25% field goal percentage in a 116-48 slaughter. The USA’s 46-1 run is an unofficial, yet unassailable Olympic men’s basketball record.

Is the memory of Angola’s folly affecting FIBA World Cup odds as much as Team Philippines’ home court advantage in Group A? Perhaps, considering that Angola defeated 2023’s host Gilas Pilipinas 84-81 in overtime during the last FIBA Men’s World Cup 4 years ago. Except that Utah Jazz shooting guard Jordan Clarkson wasn’t toiling for the national team during the last Summer Olympics run-up, as he will before a hero-worshipping crowd at Philippine Arena this summer. Clarkson’s likelihood of dominating a game filled with journeyman pros is enough to make The Philippines into a point-spread favorite pick over Angola on August 27th. We’re more intrigued by the difference Karl Anthony-Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves could make for the Dominican Republic against Group Stage favorite Italy earlier on the same day, given there’s only Clarkson’s teammate Simone Fontecchio on hand to buoy an Italian roster of role-players.

WagerBop’s Pick: Dominican Republic (+136)

Group B Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Serbia -4000
Puerto Rico +1500
China +1800
South Sudan +3500

The thinness of NBA-level scorers has affected Group B’s outright winner odds much more dramatically. China is so wanting for premier shooting touch in the 2020s that the team is using its “legacy” pick on the African-American forward Kyle Anderson of the Timberwolves, whose great-grandmother hailed from China.

Puerto Rico, which will play on uphill hardcourt without injured linchpin Jose Alvarado of the New Orleans Pelicans, is still a fascinating FIBA World Cup and Summer Olympics pick thanks to its nice number of NBA alumni who remain in excellent shape. Speculators should note how the trend of big-money hoops in the Americas is luring away players with years to go as domestic part-timers, in much the same fashion as underutilized NBA bench players become 30-something stars in EuroLeague. The best scoring of the FIBA World Cup will come from NBA cagers, while some of the event’s top role-players will be aging EuroLeague talents. The exodus of state-side ballers to Puerto Rico could throw a wild card into that hierarchy, as former National Basketball Association players with chips on their shoulders threaten to hijack the point-scoring leaderboard, much like ice hockey forwards Pavol Datsyuk or Ladislaw Nagy leaving the “big time” NHL while in prime condition, and then continuing to shine against A-list nations on the international pond.

Serbia can’t put more than 3 NBA veterans on the floor in 2023. Why are Serbia’s odds to win Group B so prohibitively short? The active phrase would be “quality over quantity.” Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Atlanta Hawks will lead a starting-5 which includes the Miami Heat’s 1st Round draft pick Nikola Jović and Aleksej Pokusevski of Oklahoma City, the latter being a center-forward so long on the basketball that Team China could think Yao Ming is making a comeback. Filip Petrusev of Gonzaga is another menace in the paint.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Outright Winner Bets

Group C Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

USA -2200
Greece +1000
New Zealand +3500
Jordan +4000

Athletic ability isn’t the foremost problem with Team USA in 2023. But we’ve heard that number before, including prior to the U.S. squad’s miserable bid at the last FIBA World Cup. Sportsbooks are treating this summer’s United States men’s squad as if it’s expected to develop into a 2-time Olympic gold medal team. Perhaps it will, but a roster that’s completely green of FIBA experience has an awful lot yet to prove.

Look for head coach Steve Kerr to adjust his style with Team USA, and potentially coach a methodical game that doesn’t rely on Jalen Brunson’s backcourt to stay hot from downtown. Kerr knows better than anyone how Team USA is vulnerable in a small-ball scenario when shooters like Steph Curry stay home. The Red, White, and Blue will dish the ball inside to forwards like 6’10” Jaren Jackson Jr. of Memphis, and reliable scoring leader Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans.

The presence of Milwaukee’s Bobby Portis gives Kerr a power forward who can get nuclear from beyond the arc, an even more dangerous weapon in FIBA’s landscape of modified 3-point shooting and wide open transition looks. But winning the medal round could hinge on whether America’s fantastic 7-footer Walter Kessler rebounds from a season-ending spring injury to impress at the FIBA World Cup.

The USA’s opening draw is a dream, with the Greek Freak forced to sit-out due to injury woes, and no other marquee threats to defend from any of Group C’s national squads. Speculators must wait for long-range prop bets to arrive at their sportsbook before browsing any viable picks on Group B or Group C.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Outright Winner Bets

Group D Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Lithuania -310
Montenegro +310
Mexico +1100
Egypt +4000

It’s always nice to see “incongruously” bright odds on an international team, as Vegas gives respect to a program that casual fans would assume is a practical joke. The tough women’s hockey team of Mexico is merely one example. Another is the iced-over nations like Norway who excel at FIFA soccer and in other “summer” sports. One might assume that Mexico and Egypt would be touted strongly in basketball against Lithuania and Montenegro, “Little Montenegro!” as Fitzgerald wrote in The Great Gatsby. But despite the relative lack of NBA game-changers in Group D, it’s the small countries drawing the big action to win.

Montenegro’s lineup isn’t a pure Cinderella at 3-to-1 odds. Nikola Vucevic of the Chicago Bulls has the size and scoring touch that Mexico’s defenders won’t be able to handle when the squads meet on 8/25. NCAA basketball fans will note that point guard Kendrick Perry of Youngstown State has become a handy, dedicated contributor after failing to make the Orlando Magic several years ago.

Lithuania schooled Montenegro in a pair of mismatched FIBA qualifying games in 2022, however, in spite of Perry looming large in those contests. Tacking on the Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas makes upsetting the Lithuanians an even tougher task this year. Montenegro knows that it can qualify for the Second Round without beating Lithuania in the first Group Stage, increasing the chances of an uneventful head-to-head victory for the 1-to-3 betting favorite on August 29th, should each team hold serve against the also-rans.

WagerBop’s Pick: Lithuania (-310)

Group E Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Australia -250
Germany +300
Finland +900
Japan +2500

Australia is bringing such a wonderful, seasoned squad to the 2023 FIBA World Cup that we wonder if an unbiased “world” sportsbook would give Team Australia and Team USA similar odds to win. The fact that the Boomers of 2023-24 can replace an entire starting-5 without sacrificing NBA credentials helps to salve any concerns about a lack of elite scoring touch in Group E. Josh Giddey is coming into his own for Oklahoma City and will give Australia’s blue-collar veterans a needed spark on offense. But regardless, the Aussies’ depth in experienced front-court defending surpasses that of the USA and everyone else this summer.

Group E’s underdog bettors are counting on Germany’s individual NBA scoring relative to the Aussies. Team Germany will make a formidable bid to qualify for the Paris Olympics with a top-7 finish, led by the Orlando Magic’s popular Wagner duo and the Toronto Raptors shooting guard Dennis Schroder. But if NBA cred is such a foremost angle behind the odds, Australia and Germany should be “Italy and Dominican Republic” betting favorites to advance, with Finland and Japan’s lonely NBA names not inspiring so many wagers.

Germany faces perceived Group E caboose Japan to open its 2023 World Cup, while Australia is only a single-digit pick ATS for its debut against Lauri Markkanen and Team Finland. That tells speculators that a critical starting-5 will make it to Round 2 healthy for Team Germany, ready to give the Australians their best shot. But the round-robin favorite is a beast capable of holding FIBA powers to under 60 points in a contest. Recall that the foursome will compete in Okinawa City, making Japan’s debut into a noisy, stressful ride for the favored Germans. The Boomers’ momentum could get Wagner’s orchestra out-of-tune in Round 2.

WagerBop’s Pick: Australia (-250)

Group F Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Slovenia -4000
Georgia +1700
Venezuela +2500
Cape Verde +5500

Slovenia’s prohibitive odds are the most curious of the 2023 World Cup, even as the angle behind them is nothing but obvious. Slovenia’s superstar Luka Dončić is considered to have the world’s best scoring touch at the youthful age of 24. Dončić led the then-underdog Slovenians to a breathtaking run at the podium in 2021’s “2020” Tokyo Olympics, falling just short against France and Australia in the IOC medal round. Slovenia’s #7 FIBA World Ranking gives gamblers more confidence that Dončić will play in Paris.

Sportsbooks are overlooking an unlucky draw for Slovenia on August 28th in Okinawa City. Georgia is on WagerBop‘s mind, and not due to some well-hidden starting lineup of NBA exiles or March Madness standouts. Georgia’s pair of NBA bigs Goga Bitadze and Sandro Mamukelashvili could potentially combine with Georgia’s team captain Giorgi Shermadini for 57,352 Scrabble points, as well as a 3-way defensive effort that limits Dončić’s point total in Round 2, even without traditional double and triple-teams.

Betting against Slovenia with its best cager is much like picking against a LeBron James club with a dicey supporting cast. The opening Group Stage – FIBA’s version of a “regular season” – is when to do it.

WagerBop’s Pick: Georgia (+1700)

Group G Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Spain -520
Brazil +430
Iran +3500
Cote d’Ivoire +3500

Are international hoops bettors guilty of counting each team’s NBA players “on their fingers and toes,” and using only the names they know to make an analysis? It’s a well-known YouTube foible that FIBA World Cup pundits are found hyping the heck out of individual cagers until their list of NBA-filled rosters runs down, and then they finish the video with 5:00 of mealy-mouthed commentary on “Finland this, Finland that, and the Finnish team is another thing” without analyzing a single European club player from Team Finland.

Spain and Brazil’s odds, at a glance, make it appear as though Las Vegas acknowledges no basketball league outside of the NBA. Brazil can rely on a known commodity from the NBA in Raul Neto, but there’s real excitement behind 7’0″ Santi Aldama’s appearance for Team Spain, while FIBA teammate Usman Garuba of the Atlanta Hawks provides a sidekick with strength on the drive who gobbles rebounds. Supposing there was a “playground” 2-on-2 competition, Spain beats Brazil on a make-it-take-it.

Look deeper at Group G and the betting lines are more encouraging. Fans and bookmakers really do pay attention to basketball outside of the NBA and NCAA Division 1. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be such a discrepancy between Spain and Brazil’s markets, with no actual NBA superstars in the matchup.

Speculators trust Spain’s contingent of EuroLeague and Champions League veterans to out-play Brazil’s roster in the starting lineup and off the bench. Cariocas has been relying on too many South American club professionals as its once-proud FIBA men’s ranking languishes at #13 overall. Former Atlanta Hawks draft selection Didi Louzada is representative of the stale cogs in Brazil’s backcourt, while Team Spain’s 19 y/o prospect Juan Núñez could greatly improve his 2024 NBA Draft stock if offered serious minutes.

Spain’s 1-to-5 futures price, and the eased pressure of FIBA Group Stage with a double round-robin, are the best reasons not to pick 2023’s world #1 in win Group G. Neither angle points to Brazil as the alternative.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Outright Winner Bets

Group H Outright Winner Odds and Predictions

Canada -136
France +126
Latvia +1400
Lebanon +8000

Once again, any thought that the Group Stage odds on Canada’s foursome are based on a “hot starting lineup” threat from the thinner French squad runs into the question of long-shot markets. If the (+1.5) spread line on France in Round 1’s showdown against Canada is a product of Rudy Gobert’s strong opposing lineup, then why is Latvia also a hopeful pick without more than one premier shooter on its team?

Readers must note that the Paris Olympics won’t just give 7 bids away to the World Cup’s top septet of finishers. There’s a continental culling that must take place to avoid one hemisphere flooding the Olympic tournament, and only so much room for Americans in the last selections. Canada must finish at least 2nd out of nations from the Americas, an outcome that could be found at generous prop-bet odds considering that the United States, Brazil, and Dominican Republic are among North and South America’s teams in the running. But we’re of the opinion that Canada is a shoo-in for a finish in the top pair, and not due to Argentina’s shock failure to reach the World Cup. The question is whether the Habs will win it all.

It’s pretty nice to have a crew of reliable NBA defenders like Australia, or to recruit a cast of fresh-faced sharpshooters like 2023’s United States squad. But neither aforementioned country can claim that it’s sending a first-choice lineup of All-Star cagers in their prime years. Canada most certainly can. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been averaging a mammoth 31+ points per game for Oklahoma City, and Minnesota’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker could be poised for a breakout shooting performance. If the Canada men’s international squad is to be defined as “Jamal Murray’s team” going forward, then the 2023 FIBA World Cup can be called the Utah Jazz’s tournament, with Team Canada’s Kelly Olynyk yet another Utah veteran who’ll be key to a contender’s gold medal hopes.

Murray is not yet 100% certain to play in the 2023 World Cup, which might be an angle behind the “Road Warriors” garnering such cautious odds to win. But just as Murray hems and haws in the media, RJ Barrett is in headlines after going 13-of-14 for 31 points against Germany in a tune-up game. There’s one other angle behind Canada’s tourney underdog status, and that’s recent history. Canada was a grave letdown at the 2019 FIBA World Cup and did not compete for Summer Olympic gold in Tokyo 2 years later. We should remind readers that Barrett was only 19 and not a contributing team member when those losses occurred, and that outcomes within a team’s formative years often have little or no bearing on what the lineup can do when it matures. Otherwise, the national men’s soccer team of France would’ve kept on being a lousy World Cup pick after falling in 2014’s quarterfinals…and Team USA (and Lebron James) would’ve remained dodgy on the futures betting board long after the Athens Olympics.

WagerBop’s Pick: Canada (-136)

Bonus Prediction: Canada to cover (-1.5) ATS vs France (8/25)