FBS Previews and Predictions: Hawaii vs SDSU Point Total Pick and Week 10 Bets ATS

This blogger made the mistake of pre-preparing Tuesday and Wednesday night “MAC-tion” predictions for 2 pages instead of 1 in Week 10, even when the publish time of half of the syndicated MAC score-predictions would make the forecast a moot point, pale ephemera of the past.

But any good handicapper knows how to make Redundant Lemonade (that’s my recipe for lemonade as lemonade should be according to God and Tennessee Williams, and the last part of that is redundant) out of a big, fat lemon, and so why not use the Tuesday and Wednesday picks and outcomes as a case-study for WagerBop’s CFB tactics this week?

After all, the MAC is a microcosm of college pigskin. At its worst, MAC-tion is boring, producing a generic, sleepy, banal vibe as small live crowds clap for forgettable 4-yard rushes. But that’s true of all Group-of-5 football when nothing that exciting is going on. At its best, the MAC showcases some of the most fun and fascinating Group-of-5 programs in the FBS, like Northern Illinois and Toledo.

It was no real surprise to see NIU and Kent State score a ton of points, but I’m proud of our (otherwise syndicated) call on Eastern Michigan (+8.5) as a live Tuesday underdog. Toledo owned the series 36 wins to 12 prior to Tuesday night’s upset win for EMU, but as the game bore-out (without anyone getting bored-out), that kind of history means little when an offense isn’t good enough to punish an average defense. Toledo’s passing numbers are swimming with the least efficient in Division 1.

Besides, the Eagles lost by a field goal in 2019’s barn-burner in Ohio, and that EMU team finished just 6-7. In hindsight it seems so simple. What other G5 angles could Sin City have whiffed on in Week 10?

Let’s focus in on a conservative O/U total for Thursday’s action in the Sun Belt – an improving conference that doesn’t behave too differently from the upper tiers of the Mid-American.

FBS Odds: Week 10 Lines, Previews, and Picks on NCAA Football

Georgia State Panthers at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (Thursday, November 4)

Thursday’s lone kickoff offers point spread picks cast on a loose line of (-12.5) for Louisiana. The #24 ranked Ragin’ Cajuns are the class of a Sun Belt conference that’s posted a surprising W/L record against a difficult OOC slate, and Louisiana’s only loss all season came on a road trip to UT. Georgia State, meanwhile, has won 3 conference games in a row after losing back-to-back scrums as an underdog vs App State and Auburn.

Georgia State is playing solid, methodical defense, but that may not work against a Louisiana team that’s averaging 40 points in home games. The Panthers’ scores have prompted a cautious (53.5) Over/Under line out of FanDuel Sportsbook, but the scrappy team will be forced to open up in a noisy setting, potentially leading to defensive TDs and turnovers.

Recommended bet: Over (53.5)

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles (Friday, November 5)

An even more cautious total of (45.5) has been set for Boston College vs Virginia Tech, and this time the bookmakers have history on their side. The ACC’s mid-tier is known for hard-nosed defense and very boring offense in certain scenarios, with Virginia Tech producing the worst example by fighting Wake Forest to a 0-0 regulation tie in 2014. Will supplies of No-Doz be handed-out at Boston College alongside Friday’s halftime refreshments?

The answer is yes, but only if the Hokies get conservative enough with a 2nd-half lead. Boston College (+3.5) has a downtrodden offense that’s produced little for 3 games, but BC’s defense is still playing hard, and VT’s precarious bowl hopes and injury problems mean HC Justin Fuentes won’t dare take a lot of chances if things are going well. If the favorites are losing on the road, it could change the O/U outcome, but WagerBop is expecting VT to remain steadily in charge throughout the game.

Recommended bets: Virginia Tech (-3.5) and Under (45.5)

Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks (Saturday, November 6)

At 1-7, Kansas is officially out of the bowl picture and appears to have reverted to “laughingstock” status after a 55-3 loss at Oklahoma State. The effort was a far cry from KU’s brave performance vs Oklahoma in the previous game, and the let-down has helped cast the Jayhawks as immense (+24.5) point underdogs in this weekend’s Sunflower Showdown with visiting Kansas State. Wise point-spread picks and 4-touchdown rivalry-game favorites don’t go well together, and KSU was lucky to play TCU just as the Gary Patterson situation came to a head. Kansas is probably between the 2 extremes of Week 8’s fighting underdog and Week 9’s dud, and has enough of a pesky ground game to bother Saturday’s favorites for at least 3 quarters.

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday, November 6)

Sports gamblers aren’t used to making their college football picks on 6-digit moneylines, but hey, this is 2021!

Perhaps as a gag, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a (-100000) or 1-to-1000 money-line pick on the #1 Georgia Bulldogs to beat Eli Drinkwitz’s ailing Missouri Tigers. Missouri’s odds to win are 40-to-1, with an O/U line of (59.5) and the Tigers taking (+37) points.

The Tigers’ defense is among the worst in the Power-5, making Georgia’s prospects to score TDs almost academic. However, the Black & Gold are usually alive enough to manufacture a few early points vs UGA, which may serve to whet the Dawgs’ appetite for hitting 50-plus points.

Recommended bet: Over (59.5)

Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday, November 6)

Knocking-off rival Michigan at home last Saturday has taken Michigan State on a gigantic leap toward College Football Playoff legitimacy. The Spartans didn’t need any last-ditch fumble returns or spectacular QB-WR performances to defeat the favored Wolverines this time around, as MSU tailback Kenneth Walker out-shone Michigan’s Hassan Haskins with an amazing 5 touchdowns and close to 200 rush yards. Michigan State now ranks 5th in the national AP poll with 2 winnable games to play before a meeting with Ohio State.

Las Vegas is taking a cautious approach to the Spartans, handicapping Saturday’s spread at Purdue at just (+3.5) against the Boilermakers. Point spread picks on Purdue have “MSU rivalry game hangover” written all over them, but it’s going to take an explosive offense to add Michigan State to the ranks of the beaten. Purdue hasn’t hit 30+ points since September when UP pasted UConn.

Recommended bet: Michigan State (-3.5)

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday, November 6)

Evan as Alabama and LSU take center stage for this weekend’s prime-time slate, Saturday night’s “alternative” SEC point spread looks more mystifying than the thin margin predicted by Sin City bookmakers for Purdue vs Michigan State.

Tennessee is only a (+0.5) underdog at Kentucky following an 0-2 stretch for the Wildcats, but the Volunteers haven’t traveled well in 2021, and Kentucky has both a home-field advantage and a roster of superior poise and depth to draw from.

Recommended bet: Kentucky (-115)

San Diego State Aztecs at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (Saturday, November 6)

SDSU’s (-7.5) point spread is interesting to handicap, but not as interesting as the kickoff’s (46.5) Over/Under total – an almost historically low O/U number for a Mountain West game in Hawaii. What’s behind an NFL-style O/U line on another “Run & Shoot” midnight battle?

The Aztecs’ defense is largely responsible for a 7-1 record, given the team’s struggle to field an efficient passing game. QB Lucas Johnson was held to under 50% completions and picked-off twice despite SDSU’s healthy ground game in last Saturday’s loss to Fresno State. Meanwhile, Hawaii’s Rainbow Warriors have shown flashes of playing way over their heads on defense, especially after a 17-14 loss to San Jose State and a 27-24 upset win over the aforementioned Bulldogs.

It could be that playing in Halawa wakes up a lot of pedestrian offenses, which are tasked with keeping up with the Warriors’ fast tempo. Hawaii’s defense can’t “flash” its way to an MWC championship any time soon, as the Warriors are fresh from allowing 85 combined points to Utah State and pitiful NMSU.

San Diego State’s offense was terrific early in the season when the Aztecs whipped up on the Pac-12. Saturday offers a “get well” opportunity for the unit even if Hawaii’s potency with the ball keeps the game from getting too far away from the proud hosts.

Recommended bet: Over (46.5)