FBS Championship Saturday Picks: Tulane vs UCF Point Spread Forecast and Best ACC Plus Big Ten Parlay

Announcers talk about early September vis-a-vis the magic of football’s annual rekindling. Yet it’s Championship Weekend that FBS speculators may look forward to the most. There’s not much mystery left when it comes to handicapping teams, with 12 games’ worth of sample-size on each school’s lineup, and all pretenders sitting-out on Saturday.

A similar dichotomy works in favor of fans and against gamblers this weekend, though. The FBS was brazen enough to schedule all but one of 2022’s conference championship games on a single Saturday, just as the World Cup’s knock-out round commences in Qatar.

Those who wait too long to make their wagers could be to exhausted to handicap by night’s end, as a betting style of “go with the flow” doesn’t work as well when news from Top 25 programs from every region of the United States is coming fast and furious by 7 PM.

Remember that a couple of winning bets on heavy units always beats a whole day of winning and losing pennies at a time. Make sure to find which of WagerBop’s picks on Championship Saturday most-closely fit your own predictions, and only gamble on those scrums.

There’s no “bailout” overnight game in Hawaii or San Jose this weekend…and if there were, the Warriors or Spartans might find themselves sorely overmatched by Week 14’s powerful field of FBS division winners.

FBS Championship Saturday: Gambling Lines, Predictions, and Best Bets

TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas State Wildcats (Big 12 Championship)

WagerBop has warned about TCU’s potential status as a “ghost” team in the 2022-23 College Football Playoff bracket. Texas Christian’s unbeaten campaign is a credit to the Big 12 and a reminder of the astounding depth of quality of programs in Texas. At the same time, we have no evidence that TCU is yet ready to tackle top teams from the SEC, the ACC, or the Big Ten. The toughest OOC opponent the Horned Frogs have beaten so far is the SMU Mustangs.

But it may be taking the theme too far for FanDuel to take only (-2.5) points from the Horned Frogs against the Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Kansas State is after all a conference opponent that Texas Christian defeated 38-28 in midseason, with the 9-3 Wildcats still smarting from having lost 21-0 in the 2nd half, allowing one of many triumphant rushing days for TCU tailback Kendre Miller this year.

Texas Christian certainly ought not to be giving away all 10 points by which it beat KSU on home turf. But despite Kansas State’s alumni base traveling reasonably well, the central Texas location of Saturday’s championship scrum works out just peachy for TCU. The Wildcats have played exceptionally well through a 3-game winning streak since dropping a game to the University of Texas, but a 60-point Over/Under line reminds us that in an anticipated high-scoring game, a point spread of less than 3 points can amount to nothing at all compared to which team prevails in the last few minutes. If the score is tied and TCU quarterback Max Duggan leads the expected go-ahead drive, then even a terrific Kansas State performance won’t have kept Texas Christian from covering on Saturday.

WagerBop’s Pick: Texas Christian ATS (-2.5)

Toledo Rockets vs Ohio Bobcats (MAC Championship)

The Ohio Bobcats – as quietly as Hocking River’s hushed pigskin pillar Frank Solich – have become one of the Football Bowl Subdivision’s peskiest programs. Simply put, Ohio just won’t go away. Solich’s coaching reign coming to an end in the COVID-19 years coincided with a sudden drop in Saturday form, leading to new HC Tim Albin going 3-9 in 2021. But Ohio, a (+2.5) underdog vs the Rockets in the MAC Championship Game at Ford Field this weekend, roared to life again behind the dynastic QB Kurtis Roarke, who dominated the MAC with his passing arm in 2022 and led the Bobcats to a 6-0 home record.

Regretfully for Ohio, the MAC’s aerial-yards leader has been sidelined with a season-ending injury, leaving Albin with a stop-gap QB in C.J. Harris. Harris enjoyed a quality start and 3 rushing TDs against Bowling Green in the Bobcats’ ceremonial last home game, but he additionally whiffed on 11 out of 21 pass attempts. Overall, the Ohio offense now more resembles the uninspired units from 2015-19 which just managed to grind out enough 1st downs to remain in the hunt for division titles.

That is not a great situation with the high-powered Rockets on the ledger for an indoor championship game. Yet at the same juncture, Toledo finds themselves having backed into the title tilt, and not looking anything like point-a-minute Rockets teams that established a national fan base with exciting performances. FanDuel Sportsbook‘s O/U betting line of (57.5) seems based on MAC history and not the match-up in Detroit.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (57.5)

Georgia Bulldogs vs Louisiana State Tigers (SEC Championship)

Georgia and Alabama, our blog’s pair of preseason futures picks, could not have had more disparate seasons once the leaves turned. The era of dominant year-in, year-out defense out of Tuscaloosa is officially over, and the Crimson Tide must prepare to play in a New Year’s bowl game without as many as a dozen performers who will hedge toward the NFL Draft. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are a rare top-ranked college football team with a defense and special-teams effort so rich in physical, game-breaking athletes, Georgia can make statements on the gridiron even when they don’t cover the point spread.

WagerBop recently recommended picks on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover a wide spread at home against the visiting Dawgs. Wildcats worked the clock, tackled as stubbornly as any team in the Southeastern Conference, and lost 16-6, covering the point spread as expected. But wild horses (or cats) couldn’t have persuaded the blog to recommend UK as a moneyline pick to upset UGA, since making up a 10 or 14-point deficit against the Bulldogs’ generational defense is quite another matter. Georgia is taking-on the vibe of a 1970s-era professional dynasty team like the Miami Dolphins or Pittsburgh Steelers, content to move the chains and defend the end zone until an equally-great opponent pushes them enough, and it’s time for John Facenda to narrate “William Tell Overture,” or at least for Stetson Bennett to hit Ladd McConkey on a home-run bomb of a post pattern to give UGA another go-ahead score.

Perhaps the more exaggerated (-16.5) spread line on UGA over LSU is a by-product of bookmakers having the same impression. Louisiana State’s latest coaching staff is not known to back down from wide-open game-planning in a challenging underdog scenario, despite Notre Dame’s well-known bellyflops while attempting-in-vain to advance in the College Football Playoff under Coach Kelly. Sportsbooks’ 50-point Over/Under totals attached to Louisiana State and Georgia’s betting markets are actually liberal for a UGA game.

But consider that the Tigers would not be a huge underdog after such a wonderful season, were it not for LSU’s massive let-down at Texas A&M last weekend. In our opinion, sportsbooks are being too clever by half in offering such a massive spread on what should prove to be an entertaining, closely-fought game for at least 2 or 3 quarters. Odds are offered that users are perceived to be willing to gamble on, and enough speculators threw up their hands in disgust at Louisiana State in Week 13 that tight odds won’t wash.

It only stands to reason that Louisiana State vs Texas A&M is not what “Rivalry Weekend” is named after, and LSU had diminishing motivation to fight hard in the 4th quarter at College Station. Players know that a CFB berth most likely slipped-out of reach when the Tigers was clobbered by Tennessee for its 2nd loss in 6 games. Like with Alabama’s star-studded lineup, many Tigers will be sure to skip bowl season.

Those same facts-of-life can only turn-up the motivation meter for Louisiana State in Week 14. By taking a conference championship and a top playoff seeding away from unbeaten UGA, LSU would be the ultimate spoilers, and provoke a debate over whether the College Football Playoff bracket should have been expanded far sooner. It’s enough to turn the frowns of A&M’s visiting sideline upside down … and to cover 2+ TDs against Georgia.

WagerBop’s Pick: Louisiana State ATS (+16.5)

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs (Mountain West Conference Championship)

Insane upsets have simmered down in the FBS over 2-3 weeks, but several long-term underdog stories are rising to the fore in their absence. The Broncos’ entire October-November trek can be considered one long “upset,” since Boise State debuted in such poor form that a 2-2 start seemed charitable, not unlucky for the 2022 Boise Blue. That was then, and now the Broncs are leading the Mountain West’s “non-Air Force” statistical rushing chart with nearly 200 rush yards per-game. BSU’s trademark physical defense is also ranked runner-up in the Mountain West – just behind 9-3 Air Force. The Falcons, it should be noted, are among those BSU has beaten to go 8-0 in the MWC.

None of those shiny angles make BSU (-3) more than a field-goal favorite in Las Vegas this weekend. After all, Boise State and Fresno State have had plenty of heart-stopping battles to determine MWC supremacy over the years. Meanwhile, the betting public appears somewhat torn over whether to trust the Bulldogs’ team that’s won 7 games straight after losing 40-20 … or to trust BSU, who beat Fresno by 20 points in that game.

FanDuel’s (54.5) total-points line on the MWC Championship Game is a little too fat for what could turn into a snow game, given each pass-rush’s giant strides over the streaky teams’ divisional triumphs. Those looking to go against-the-public and join a cool 40% of sportsbook users taking Fresno State should stop and consider that the Mountain West Conference’s conference title games are not held in a neutral location. BSU qualified as the conference’s top seed and will host Saturday’s bout at Albertson’s Stadium.

It would be a nasty surprise to have picked the Bulldogs to win for its “half” of the fans at a fair venue, then turn on the TV and see Boise State on that familiar, deadly blue ocean.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (57.5)

Tulane Green Wave vs Central Florida Knights (AAC Championship)

Rivalry Weekend had more than the FIFA World Cup to keep fans distracted. Several big-time rivalries have become stale trash-time affairs due to the collapse of 1 out of 2 programs, such as UGA vs GT. Less than a decade ago, Georgia vs Georgia Tech produced classics with an impact on the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six. UGA’s 37-14 win last weekend, in which both teams played backups, was a Clean Old-Fashioned Date.

The AAC’s commitment to home-field booking in the postseason will help snap noisy FBS fans out of the haze. The Green Wave (-3) lost to UCF by a touchdown despite rallying to the finish-line in a November loss at Yulman Stadium, but the surging Tulane Green Wave and its electric fan base will be committed not to allow the same fiasco to happen in a same-Bat-time, same-Bat-location rematch for AAC gold this Saturday.

Central Florida’s main issue is timing, with QB John-Lee Plumlee on the mend from a hamstring wound, and UCF backup Mikey Keane not inspiring nearly as much hype as a different “Mike” taking NFL snaps on the east coast.

Plumlee was a one-man wrecking crew vs the Green Wave in the regular-season road win, but without his legs at full capacity, we could witness a scenario for Central Florida such as Nick Fitzgerald’s failure to get MSU over the hump in the SEC championship race after demolishing consecutive league rivals on the ground.

WagerBop’s Pick: Tulane ATS (-3)

Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC Championship)

If there is only a single moneyline pick to recommend for this Saturday, why not make it a ML with a pretty darn good chance to win? The Clemson Tigers are our Championship Saturday parlay pick at (-300) odds to beat #18 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels.

Not only is a 1-to-3 moneyline, or a (-7.5) spread, offered a tad tight for a contest expected to produce around (61.5) total points, but the Tigers defense’s doubters comprise many of the same people who criticized Dabo Swinney’s “Power Rangers” defense of late-2010s fame prior to its epic romp in the postseason. North Carolina backed into the ACC Championship Game with a pair of unsightly losses to conference also-rans NC State and Georgia Tech.

WagerBop’s Pick: Clemson (-300) or ATS (-7.5)

Michigan Wolverines vs Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten Championship)

At last, we come to the top-heavy Big Ten’s title tilt, and a line on the Michigan Wolverines (-14.5) to polish-off the Purdue Boilermakers that’s been moderated by the odds-managers at FanDuel Sportsbook, in spite of drawing a strong majority of picks on the Wolverines to cover anywhere from 14 to 17 points in opening lines.

The Wolverines, coming off a statement victory over OSU on antagonist turf, are responsible for the day’s 2nd-shortest moneyline at (-800) odds to triumph over Purdue.

Picking against the public is so effective, there are literally books written about it. But our view is that the gambling public is onto something when it comes to the Wolverines’ superiority over the upper tiers of the Big Ten in 2022-23.

Bookmakers are not counting on the Boilermakers quarterback Aiden O’ Connell to out-play the cocky, talented Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, or on UP’s ability to match the physicality of Jim Harbaugh’s deep defense for 60:00. Rather, the bookmakers are making a rather “FIFA World Cup Group Stage” type of educated guess, figuring that the Wolverines have earned a favorable CFP seed in a practical sense already, assuming Michigan produces a hold-serve victory in Saturday’s game, and that an NFL-veteran head coach will manufacture a cautious 2nd-half scheme to preserve a certain victory. In other words, as stands the case with the Georgia Bulldogs, it’s not a question of whether the Wolverines can defeat the Boilermakers by 15+ points, but whether Harbaugh will even find it necessary.

The Purdue Boilermakers, conversely, have shown a penchant for total collapse when punished by hard-hitting teams for 4 quarters. Even the offense-challenged Iowa Hawkeyes produced a run-away win over Purdue while laying a truly ugly stat-line on O’ Connell. Every defense that UP has faced which compares to the Wolverines in any way has resulted in the Boilermakers’ offense slowing down, and often getting stunted altogether. More than any team in the FBS, Purdue has slipped through a weak division to reach a title tilt.

The Boilermakers will need at least 28:00 of possession-time and 21+ points to keep the game within 2 touchdowns, and it’s doubtful as to whether the underdogs can count on either scenario. Watch for the Wolverines’ great offensive backfield to race away from tired tacklers again as Michigan covers the spread easily with a 2nd-half clinic.

WagerBop’s Pick: Michigan ATS (-14.5)