FBS Bowl Weekend: Las Vegas Bowl Odds and Prediction, Liberty vs Toledo O/U, and Marshall vs UConn Underdog Pick

It’s trendy to believe that the opening games of college football’s bowl season are limp, lame, lackadaisical, and boring enough to make fans want a lobotomy. Barber shops and beauty salons are full of holiday-season complaints about how the lone football nerd in an extended family is monopolizing the TV with Jimmy Kimmel Bowl, Tangerine Bowl, Tea Bowl, and Tomato Bowl action … usually with lots of 6-6 teams and even some 5-7 schools.

WagerBop won’t reserve blog space for Jimmy Kimmel’s event this year, given the comic’s offensively bad decision to make the bowl game’s mascot into an intoxicated creep who makes cheerleading squads uncomfortable. But let it not be said that there aren’t wonderful match-ups right off the bat on the 2022 bowl ledger, starting with a Top 25 showdown between the Troy Trojans and the UTSA Roadrunners on UCF’s home turf in Orlando.

Friday, December 16: Troy Trojans vs UTSA Roadrunners (Cure Bowl)

As of a few years ago, perhaps any Top 25 program worth its salt would be favored over the Sun Belt Conference. Texas San Antonio’s status as a slight (+1.5) underdog to the Trojans isn’t a reflection of UTSA’s exciting season on the field at all, however. Texas San Antonio has had as successful—and dramatic—of a campaign as any squad in the Group of 5, going 1-1 in a consecutive pair of overtime battles with Houston and Army before fighting victorious Texas to a halftime draw, then reeling off 10 straight wins to earn a C-USA title.

Sportsbooks couldn’t give the Sun Belt’s season any bigger props than the Trojans’ (-115) odds to win the Cure Bowl. Trojans can match the Roadrunners’ momentum with an epic 10-win streak and a championship of Troy’s own, but while UTSA simply ran through a relatively-easy conference after falling to big-time competition in late summer, the Trojans’ unbeaten trek has been a weekly exercise in nerves, determination, and guts. QB Gunnar Watson’s offense weathered a midseason slump in which Troy scraped by South Alabama and Army by baseball scores, but turned a corner with a trio of convincing conference wins over LA Monroe, Arkansas State, and Coastal Carolina down the stretch.

Strength vs strength and momentum vs momentum is the Cure Bowl’s forecast, given 2 extremely-hot teams with almost no time to pause practices before 12/16. Other bowl games on the same weekend, like the Fenway Bowl in the picks on scroll, are full (or stripped barren) of transfer-portal athletes and starters opting-out in preparation for the NFL draft. To the rosters’ credit, Texas San Antonio and Troy currently have zero student-athletes who’ve decided not to play in the scrum on Friday afternoon.

It calls a modest O/U (54.5) point-total line into question. The Trojans’ defense is a tough unit, but Watson is also a streaky passer who has had problems with interceptions. Against a UTSA defense that’s faster than it is dominating, he’ll probably try to maintain November-December’s newfound ease with which Trojans are driving and scoring, and if unsuccessful, try to force a few throws downfield. Turnovers would lead to turns on which Trojans’ defensive prowess couldn’t hope to stave off the Roadrunners on a short field. Put simply, Troy may be about to either build a halftime lead or surrender a few TDs trying.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (54.5)

Saturday, December 17: Cincinnati Bearcats vs Louisville Cardinals (Fenway Bowl)

So, if the Cure Bowl is a model for student-athletes staying loyal into the postseason, Saturday’s editions of the Fenway Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl are examples of bowl rosters getting pilfered in advance of the kickoffs, not just by the NFL Draft but by other college teams. The Cincinnati Bearcats, a slender (-118) favorite’s pick to defeat the Louisville Cardinals this weekend, will play without NFL prospect Josh Whyle at TE, while Louisville has lost multiple part-time RBs for the Boston bowl thanks to the success of starter Jawhar Jordan. The Cardinals’ other loss behind center may be, a-hem, just a little more critical.

Nevertheless, it must be said that Louisville and Cincinnati’s rosters are in OK shape compared to the excoriated lineups that will vie for a win in Las Vegas. The Las Vegas Bowl, and strangely enough, the 2022 Orange Bowl, may be fated to become this year’s “Sit-Out Bowls” or at least transfer-portal bonanzas for other schools instead of the top-tier showdowns that could occur. Fenway Park has had a hard time promoting specially-themed FBS games late in summer and midseason, but it’s got a majority of 4-star Cardinals and Bearcats available to help the Fenway Bowl become a success. Picks on Fenway Bowl outcomes from a “who’s missing?” point-of-view won’t be as effective as similar predictions for Florida or Clemson. But the slightly-adjusted lineups will serve as a warning of sorts that backup-vs-backup FBS bowl games are coming swiftly on the calendar.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have had so many dramatic episodes in 2022-23 conference games that it’s hard to recall how Cincy fared out-of-conference. Cincinnati’s debut 31-24 loss to the Razorbacks may be more impressive than Cincy’s 3-touchdown win over Indiana, not because Arkansas was all that amazing in Power-5 play this campaign, but because the Bearcats’ “Group of 5” offense once again out-lasted a physical team, scoring all 24 of its points in latter-half action. Cincinnati’s defense is ranked 23rd in D1 after another outstanding year.

The Cardinals were terrific in several ACC games this season, defeating NC State 25-10 on Senior Day behind a dull but mistake-free outing from backup QB Brock Domann. That’s good news considering that former Louisville starter Malik Cunningham is – you guessed it – another victim of December’s roster attrition. Louisville went on to lose to rival Kentucky in Week 14, while Cincy nearly took down a hot Top-15 brand in Tulane. The Cardinals’ inconsistency isn’t a good match for Division 1’s ultimate “chip on the shoulder” program, especially since the Bearcats haven’t lost anyone as pivotal as Cunningham.

WagerBop’s Pick: Cincinnati (-118)

Saturday, December 17: Florida Gators vs Oregon State Beavers (Las Vegas Bowl)

WagerBop readers are encouraged to see the Las Vegas Bowl as a betting opportunity, and not because it’s a “home game.” The now ESPN-owned event at Allegiant Stadium is held pretty far from our headquarters in New York. Rather, the game’s mid-month timing tends to produce only a single team which is ready to take on the challenge.

The Broncos of Boise State are a fine example of the syndrome, having shown up 200% more prepared than motley, NFL-fleeced Oregon prior to the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl, a game BSU led by 4 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter. 2 seasons later, it was the Broncos’ turn to be annihilated by a more well-rehearsed underdog in Washington. Which team will turn out to be the ’17 Broncos, or the unfortunate ’19 Broncos, of this year’s Las Vegas Bowl?

The Florida Gators (+310) are a candidate to face-plant in the postseason, having played poorly with the team’s starting roster in an 0-2 finish that included a wan loss to Vanderbilt. Now, Florida must deal with an immense exodus of student-athletes into the NFL Draft and the FBS transfer portal, including QB Anthony Richardson, WR Justin Shorter, and LB Ventrell Miller, the latter who may underscore the urgency of downtrodden Gators to leave The Swamp, given his underwhelming measurables that could result in Miller not getting selected as quickly in April’s draft as he is hoping. The Gators’ backup-turned-starting quarterback Jalen Kitna has only attempted 14 total passes in Power-5 action.

The Beavers are the smash-mouth powerhouse that upset the Oregon Ducks to win a state championship a few weeks ago. Like Cincy’s solid setup on Saturday, only tight-end Luke Musgrave has left the Beavers’ program for the draft. Oregon State certainly deserves its (-10.5) point spread on the basis of the Gators’ potentially meek effort, but we’ve got our eye on FanDuel Sportsbook’s O/U (52.5) point-total line for the Las Vegas Bowl. Presumably, no one recalls USC losing to .500 Georgia Tech by a baseball-like score in a low-key Sun Bowl battle from 2012 that the USC Trojans (not the Troy Trojans) betrayed no interest in.

Baker Mayfield’s recent comeback win over the Las Vegas Raiders showed what a determined backup quarterback can do with a speedy group of receivers, but the Gators’ fastest players who aren’t sitting out the game won’t be in place to gallop in space vs OSU. The prospects of Florida avoiding a blow-out will hinge on its youthful lineup on defense, potentially poised to hold OSU’s hand-offs to 3 yards and a pile of twigs.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (52.5)

Monday, December 19: Marshall Thundering Herd vs Connecticut Huskies (Myrtle Beach Bowl)

More straightforward forecasts apply to the 2022 Myrtle Beach Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (-10.5) and head coach Jim Mora’s underdog Uconn Huskies. The Thundering Herd (-10.5) overcame a rash of foul overconfidence, a resulting rash of losses and injuries, and a protracted midseason slump to win 4 in a row, and reach bowl season carrying yet another impressive 8-4 record on behalf of the Group of 5 at a time of year in which the colleges showing up are supposed to be 6-6 and 7-5. That summer upset of Notre Dame caused a hangover which Marshall has thundered out of in recent days.

Nevertheless, the Huskies are being downgraded for a late-year loss to Army. That’s an error on behalf of the sports-gaming community as a whole, except for the 6% of extra bettors who’re giving Connecticut an edge in point-spread betting action at FanDuel.

Orthodox FBS teams can afford extra training-camp weeks to prepare specifically for Army, Navy, or Air Force. Uconn head coach, Jim Mora, has had bigger fish to fry, taking on a reclamation project that began with Connecticut losing in trademark style, but blossomed with amazing victories, including wins over the Liberty Flames and Boston College of the ACC. UConn’s staff was probably so thrilled to have garnered a bowl bid in Year One that kids sacrificing their bodies vs Army’s knifing OL was the last thing they wanted.

There is a cynical attitude among NFL coaches about Army and Navy’s tactics, believing that if their teams reach 10-win status, victories over any souped-up underdog on the schedule will be assured over the long haul. As for the Huskies match-up with the Herd, those same skippers won’t let UConn go out easy against methodical Marshall, given the team’s potential of an eye-popping positive W/L record in a year no one thought it possible. The Thundering Herd is a true favorite, but the number’s too high for those (-10.5) bets to be practical.

WagerBop’s Pick: Connecticut ATS (+10.5)

Tuesday, December 20: Toledo Rockets vs Liberty Flames (Boca Raton Bowl)

It’s notable that the Liberty Flames backed into bowl season with 3 consecutive losses, and yet the overall resume of the 8-4 independent helps to cast Boca Raton Bowl rival Toledo Rockets (-4.5) as less than a TD favorite on the point spread, and well under 1-to-2 odds to win at just (-182) on the moneyline. The Flames’ shock catastrophe on Senior Day can be explained by New Mexico State’s sudden revival mixed with the Flames’ overconfidence playing a long-time “patsy.” What’s harder to excuse is losing to Connecticut just a week after upsetting the SEC, or nearly blowing a midseason win-streak against Gardner-Webb of the FCS division. The Flames’ offense is an inconsistent unit with serious issues, and Liberty tried 3 different quarterback options and 9-10 different receivers vs UNM to no avail.

The Rockets muddled through a low-scoring MAC Championship Game as we expected, and not enough time exists between the title scrum and the bowl game to give a typically high-powered Toledo a chance to reset and refresh. The Boca Raton Bowl should feature the teams’ “real” rosters, which is great, but that’s not always a great reason to pick the “Over” against a history-based line like FanDuel’s O/U (53.5) points. The Rockets won’t find any easier sledding against the Flames’ defense than it found against Ohio, while the Flames’ stuttering effort isn’t a good pick ATS or a reason to pick the high side of an O/U line.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (53.5)