FBS Bowl Odds: Predictions on the First Week of College Football’s Postseason

The best feeling a handicapper can have is to win a wager after predicting exactly how the game will go. But the worst feeling isn’t to get everything wrong, which inexorably happens from time to time. Rather, it’s to be right about a majority of tactical outcomes only to lose the prediction anyway.

Navy’s 31-7 win over Army is an example, at least as far as WagerBop is concerned. I touted last Saturday’s battle in Philadelphia to surpass an Over/Under total of (40.5), marking a shift in a more than a decade’s worth of low-scoring Army-Navy results. Navy betrayed my expectations by not passing at all – the Mids’ lone TD pass came on a trick play. The referees didn’t help, barely halting the clock on 1^st downs so that the game was almost played with NFL instead of FBS clock rules. If that sounds like rancid grapes from a bad loser, consider that I wasn’t bitter at all about Army blocking a chip-shot FG attempt which theoretically would have put the final score over the total. That sort of thing tends to occur when 2 teams are playing their guts out.

But I never expected Army to give up the ghost in the 4^th quarter. That was a surprise no pundit could have foretold. Even when trailing by substantial points with 10 minutes to go, the Black Knights continued to run passively up the middle, as if the goal was to avoid a blow-out loss and preserve a respectable ranking. Too bad West Point finished the season 5-8 and isn’t headed to a bowl anyway – Army might as well have gone for broke.

Maybe skipper Jeff Monken wagered the Under on Saturday. (Just kidding.)

The random, unpredictable element is a likely devil in FBS bowl games – especially in preliminary bowls scheduled prior to Christmas. Programs will act like they’re going all-out to win, then wilt in listless performances. Others will have players sit-out to protect their NFL Draft status, or suspend top talents who misbehave off the field…then go out and score 40+ points with half of a 1^st string. Some bowl referees will swallow their whistles, others will throw flags as if their salaries depend on it. As the Holy Bible reads, “time and chance happeneth to them all.”

Am I advising caution? Heck no. For high-% picks and winning bets to “happeneth” on bowls like the Bahamas Bowl and Hawaii Bowl, the #1 rule is to make bold predictions and let those weird 4^th-quarter play-calls fall (or fail) as they may. Bowls can’t be low-scoring and high-scoring at the same time, favorites can’t win and lose at the same time, and you can only lose a wager once. The threat of an embarrassing gap between pick and outcome leads ‘cappers to make middle-of-the-road predictions, which can only lead to middle-of-the-road profits. Don’t be afraid of being wrong at a time of year in which Las Vegas is bound to look just as foolish on a daily basis.

Forget about weighing 2 potential bowl-game outcomes and averaging them out. Better to gamble boldly on the more-likely result even if there’s a 45% chance it’ll look silly afterward. Sun will shine on the betting book sooner or later…though it may not shine in the tropics during the kick-off college bowl game this Friday afternoon.

Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo Bulls vs Charlotte 49ers

Speaking of percentages, a large % of pigskin fans would think of the surging San Francisco 49ers before ever stopping to consider the Charlotte 49ers of the FBS. But the kids from North Carolina are quietly making progress too. The Conference USA representatives are not only playing in the program’s maiden bowl game later this week, but they’re leading off bowl season against Buffalo of the MAC in an event which has produced some classic hard-fought games in its short existence.

There has only been 1 truly lopsided Bahamas Bowl – a 41-6 drubbing of UAB by the Ohio Bobcats in 2017. The event also hosted what stands among the most dramatic bowl finishes of all time, a 4th-quarter comeback by Central Michigan in 2014 that culminated in a 75-yard, 3-lateral touchdown play as the clock expired.

Will this year’s scrum feature another breathless denouement, a snoozer-4th quarter like ‘17, or something in between? Sin City sportsbooks are predicting a close call, but giving Buffalo (-6.5) much better chances than the newcomers.

Charlotte won 5 straight contests to close-out the regular season. QB Chris Reynolds and tailback Ben Lemay make an excellent 1-2 punch out of the 49er backfield, and the Charlotte offensive line is giving option plays the space and daylight to work. But if any player has truly stuck out for the Bahamas Bowl underdogs, it would be 6’4” 242-pound edge rusher Alex Highsmith. The senior closed the season with a dominant 4.5 sack performance in the 49ers’ 38-22 victory at Old Dominion, bringing his season total to 14. Highsmith is a legit NFL prospect who even sacked Trevor Lawrence in the team’s 52-10 loss to Clemson back in September.

Lance Leipold’s Buffalo Bulls are making a 2nd straight bowl appearance, losing to Troy 42-32 in the Dollar General Bowl last season after a 10-win campaign. The Bulls are all about running the ball behind Ksiezarczyk and the offensive line, and average 254.3 yards per game on the ground – good for 22nd in the FBS. Buffalo sophomore Jaret Patterson is ranked 5th among all Football Bowl Subdivision running backs. In victories over Bowling Green and Toledo, Patterson rushed a total of 58 times for an astounding 490 yards and 10 touchdowns.

There’s impetus for each offense to spend time running the ball, which made an opening O/U total of (58) points too generous. Neither team’s attack can flourish wide-open, and each front-7 has a decent shot to slow down the opponent, making it curious that we’d wind up with an Over/Under line which you’d expect to see from a handicap of 2 pass-first teams. Gamblers should have been taking the Under anyway…but a rush of low-side action has lowered the total by 4 points thanks to expected rain and blustery wind south of Miami on Friday afternoon.

Pick: Under (54) or Charlotte (+205)

Cure Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles vs Liberty Flames

The Georgia Power Company isn’t taking a Power-ful share of moneyline bets for this Saturday.

Following a 7-5 campaign and a solid showing in an improved Sun Belt conference, Georgia Southern has fallen from a 1-to-3 wager to win to only (-200) odds and giving just (-5) points on the spread.

It’s hard to pinpoint a reason why. Each team only has a small handful of injuries, and neither has conquered a Power-5 school in 2019-20. But while Liberty has benefited from a softer schedule – with most of its victories coming over patsies like Maine and Rutgers – GaSo has put together a shiny resume that includes a 24-21 upset win over otherwise-unbeaten Appalachian State on Halloween.

Georgia Southern is still running a devilish shotgun-option scheme led by swift junior QB Shai Werts. GaSo’s offense either clicks or it doesn’t, and inconsistent outcomes down the stretch might be a clue as to why moneyline gamblers are shy to take the Eagles as a favorite. The defense from Statesboro is pretty competitive too, and intercepted Caleb Evans twice in a 51-29 drubbing of Louisiana-Monroe in November.

Losses to rivals Troy and Arkansas State were tough to swallow down the stretch considering neither the Trojans or Red Wolves were poised atop the conference in late autumn. But a season-capping 38-10 defeat of bowl-bound Georgia State showcased the best of Georgia Southern football as Wertz’s backfield combined for 5 rushing TDs and the defense allowed less than 300 combined yards. GaSo also came close to beating Minnesota in September, a result that only looks more impressive considering the Gophers’ autumn run to prominence.

Thanks to a scheduling quirk, the Flames – who like the Charlotte 49ers will be making a debut bowl appearance this weekend – played and beat New Mexico State twice this season. But while Liberty struggled to stop the Aggies, the Eagles crushed NMSU 41-7 just days before besting App State on the road in Boone.

The weather in Orlando isn’t expected to be quite as poor as conditions at the Bahamas Bowl. Bettors are probably counting on Liberty’s extra prep time helping the Flame defense vs “the triple option.” More’s the pity – the triple option isn’t a playbook, it’s just a play. Georgia Southern is a team – a better team than its opponent at the Cure Bowl.

Pick: Georgia Southern ATS

New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs UAB Blazers

No disrespect to Alabama-Birmingham. But it’s a travesty that this match-up was even booked in the Big Easy.

Nay, it’s a black mark on FBS football. Bowls are supposed to be well-matched and mid-majors who reach the Top 25 are supposed to be rewarded. Appalachian State is the 2^nd-best team in the Carolinas, and if anything, the team’s lone loss was more of a fluke than any of its 11 wins.

Loyal readers know that my favorite scenario in which to take the Over (in this case Over (48) for the New Orleans Bowl) is when an underdog is poised to either be blown-away (potentially inviting a 4^th quarter of mop-up scoring against the opponent’s 2^nd string) or jump out to an early lead and prompt a furious comeback attempt from a high-octane foe. Saturday’s UAB (+17) vs App State match-up is likely to shape-up as 1 of those 2 circumstances by the 3^rd quarter.

Of course, there’s also a chance that the Mountaineers will have lousy weeks of practice after getting screwed into an also-ran bowl bid after beating North Carolina and South Carolina in 2019, and lose in sloppy, indignant fashion, much like USC phoned it in against Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl several years ago.

If the 3^rd scenario occurs then the final score might be “UAB 12, App State 6” or something like that. But that’s how it goes with bowl games. I’ll take a 2-out-of-3 chance at the sportsbook every time.

Pick: Over

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs BYU Cougars

People tend to search for previews and gambling touts on the day of a kickoff, and the Hawaii Bowl is on Christmas Eve with a few Boxing Day games to follow, so most readers will be busy and pressed for time. Let’s indulge in a series of quick holiday picks before diving deep into 1 more Power-5 scrum on the Friday prior to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Hawaii is a popular moneyline pick to defeat BYU, shrinking from (+158) to (+105) since betting opened. The Rainbow Warriors don’t have the kind of quality defense to be a true favorite or even a solid 1.5-to-1 pick against Brigham Young, though, and home-field advantage won’t be a huge deal considering that Aloha Stadium is not exactly known as a noisy snake-pit full of fanatics.

Pick: BYU (-2)

Quick Lane Bowl: Pittsburgh Panthers vs Eastern Michigan Eagles

I’ve always been quick to defend SEC powerhouses when they’re accused of playing soft schedules. A program such as Alabama makes its schedule look easy sometimes. An example – the Crimson Tide plays a 1-1 out-of-conference opponent in Week 3 and wins 55-10. Despite winning to go 3-0 on the season the Tide is trashed as having beaten a cupcake. “XYZ State isn’t a cupcake,” I point out to an SEC hater. “Yes they are,” goes the reply. “They’re only 1-2 and lost by 45 points in Week 3!” Hmm.

Clemson might have made the ACC look weak in a similar fashion over the past 2 years. Pittsburgh was blown-out by the defending CFP champs in the 2018 ACC Championship Game, and followed-up a strong start in 2019 by losing to the likes of Miami, Boston College, and North Carolina. But there’s nothing altogether wrong with any of those programs. The ACC didn’t become a Group-of-5 conference overnight. It’s just top-heavy, and Clemson’s dominance does not cancel-out the fact that the Pitt Panthers have played and beaten better teams than Boxing Day foe Eastern Michigan.

The most-recent Power-5 level opponent EMU faced was Buffalo on 11/2 and the Bulls slaughtered the Ypsilanti hosts by 29 points. The Eagles might take a similar beating next Thursday against a team with a special-teams unit full of brutish linebackers and fast backup receivers.

Pick: Pitt (-11)

Independence Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs Louisiana-Tech Bulldogs

A rising (50) O/U total for this Thursday match-up overlooks how sloppy the less-motivated ‘Canes may look against a burly Group-of-5 defense, in addition to the fact that Louisiana Tech will need to move the pigskin slow and steady against an ACC unit.

Pick: Under

Pinstripe Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Once again, the Big Ten finds itself overrated (and the ACC underrated) thanks to TV talking heads and a trendy national narrative. Michigan State has limped through much of 2019 and may prove to be the softest of all bowl favorites on the 2^nd weekend of the postseason.

2 late-season results seem to have soured the gambling community on Wake Forest (+165) despite the Demon Deacons racking-up an 8-4 record and facing a .500 team in the postseason. The program’s low point of the season came on November 9^th when the Deacons traveled to play Virginia Tech and lost 36-17 after taking a lead into the halftime break. Junior QB Jamie Newman was intercepted twice as the Hokies scored the final 24 points in the contest. The other outcome which has seemed to stick in handicappers’ minds is not a 52-3 loss to Clemson – the Tigers have embarrassed plenty of good college teams recently – but an OT defeat delivered by 5-7 Syracuse in Wake’s regular-season capper.

Preliminary weather reports indicate that Yankee Stadium will be cold on December 27^th (imagine that) and there’s a chance rain will be passing through the Bronx. It’s not enough to significantly affect the Over/Under total yet, a line which is holding steady at (49) points at Bovada Sportsbook. But it’s interesting that the number isn’t lower, since Michigan State is the betting favorite and is thus expected to control the game. I’m not sure how that’s going to happen unless MSU emerges victorious by a score of 17-3 or 14-7. The Spartan offense has been sparse, subject to turns of abject helplessness against quality foes like Penn State and even Herm Edwards’ fair-to-middling Arizona State squad. Michigan State tailback Elijah Collins rushed for 3.5 yards-per-carry against Rutgers, and only 2.7 YPC against a bad Maryland defense in the follow-up on 11/30. Chances are slim that the MSU offensive line will be able to play downhill against Wake Forest.

As for Wake’s slip-ups in November, the VT result was a matter of momentum taking a turn at a bad time, and Syracuse had more to play for at home than a Demon Deacons side which had already qualified for a bowl berth and was out of the division race.

Pick: Wake Forest