Falling for the Spread Storyline

Imagine this scenario. It is Week 5 of the NFL season. A 3-1 team from the east coast is hosting a 4-0 team from the west coast. The game is in primetime and commercials have been hyping the showdown since last week’s games concluded.

Everyone has a different opinion on how the game will play out but the consensus is that this one will be a barn burner. The opening line comes out and the west coast team, who has to travel across the country, is favored by 7.5 points.

Thinking there is no way the game will be that lopsided you take +7.5 points on the underdog. On Sunday, the favored, west coast team winds up winning 31-23, narrowly covering the spread and sending you home a loser.

“Wow! I can’t believe Vegas predicted that one so accurately,” you groan. “How are they always within a point or two?!”.

While it does seem that Vegas is scary good at setting NFL lines, I wanted to look at the numbers and see how accurate they actually were.

I have to say, Vegas gets it wrong a whole lot more often than I thought. Let’s jump in!

Vegas Gets It Wrong … A Lot

If a group of NFL bettors were asked to guess how often Vegas is within a touchdown when setting their spreads, I would imagine most guess 70%, 75%, maybe even 80% or 90%.

We have it drilled in our minds that Vegas is always right on. This is because we tend to remember vividly those times when the spread perfectly reflects the final score, much like that example from earlier.

It is true that Vegas is super close sometimes, but I think most would be surprised how infrequently that happens. This chart shows how often the spread has been within 7 points of the final score over the past several seasons.

Year	# Games <=7	% Games <=7
2018	65	56.0%
2017	119	46.5%
2016	133	52.0%
2015	111	43.4%
2014	107	41.8%
Total	535	46.9%

Not even 50%. Not even half the time do the Vegas experts get within one touchdown of their spread.

Let’s keep narrowing our focus and see how likely Vegas is to get within smaller margins.

Year	# Games <=4	% Games <=4
2018	37	31.9%
2017	78	30.5%
2016	84	32.8%
2015	73	28.5%
2014	70	27.3%
Total	342	30%

30%. Only 30% of the time is the Vegas spread within 4 points. This means that games in which the favorite is -3, which is a very common line, have a 70% chance of either having the underdog win or having the favorite win by a touchdown.

Year	# Games <=3	% Games <=3
2018	27	23.3%
2017	60	23.4%
2016	67	26.2%
2015	60	23.4%
2014	56	21.9%
Total	270	23.7%

Less than a quarter of NFL football games finish within 3 points of the Vegas line. Finally, I want to look at games in which Vegas absolutely nails it – games within one point of the spread.

Year	# Games <=1	% Games <=1
2018	13	11.2%
2017	36	14.1%
2016	44	17.2%
2015	26	10.2%
2014	20	7.8%
Total	139	12.2%

Now on one hand, it is quite impressive that Vegas can accurately predict games 12% of the time. On the other hand, Vegas is more than a touchdown off 53.1% of the time!

What Can We Learn From This?

Why is this information useful? Because it is all too easy to fall for the “spread storyline”. When you check the spread of the game before you handicap it, your game prediction will be skewed by that spread. That is falling for the spread storyline.

Have you ever reasoned any of the following statements after seeing a spread? These are all examples of falling for the spread storyline.

• The Cowboys are 1.5-point favorites. Oh boy! This one is going to be close.
• The Rams are 10-point favorites. They are definitely going to win, but will it be by at least 10?
• The Saints are 7.5-point favorites. Ooh, if they were 7-point faves I would bet them but I can’t do 7.5.

What is wrong with these statements? Remember, Vegas gets it wrong a whole lot more than they get it right.

When you see the Saints are -7.5, you automatically begin thinking about the Saints winning by a touchdown when, in reality, there is a very large chance the game will not finish close to that spread.

I hate when people say “they are definitely going to win but will it be by enough?”. In college football, when the spreads can be 25 or 35 points, this is a legitimate question. In the NFL there is no such thing as a guaranteed win.

My advice is to do your handicapping and research before you look at the Vegas lines. Far too often, we get caught up on a particular number, forgetting that there is a 53.1% chance the final score will not even be within a touchdown.

If you ever catch yourself refusing to bet a team at -3.5 but then wanting to bet them once the line shifts to -2.5, you are falling for the spread storyline.

You are banking on a 12.2% chance that Vegas is going to nail this spread within one point. That is not a smart way to bet.

Free your mind and don’t fall for the spread storyline. Research and make your own prediction before you check Vegas’.