FA Cup Quarter-Final Odds: Southampton vs City ATS Pick and Best Sunday Prop Bets

Supporters that think the FA Cup brand needs more Premier League stars and less “minnows” on the pitch may be about to get their way.

That’s too bad, since minnows have swum like trophy Chinook over the last few rounds of this year’s tournament. Nottingham Forest knocked off a UEFA-level Arsenal side, then ran Leicester City off the pitch in the course of qualifying for this year’s quarter-finals. Middlesbrough of English Championship has climbed an even tougher ledge, having bested no other than Ronaldo of Manchester United in the 4th round and Harry Kane of Tottenham in the next. Boreham Wood acquitted not only itself, but all of the UK’s “neighborhood” clubs exceptionally well in last week’s 0-2 loss to Everton of the EPL.

2022’s quarter-final round is nonetheless expected to knock out the FA Cup’s remaining lower-tier clubs. Favorable (or “favourable”) draws in earlier rounds allowed non-elite sides to face each other on occasion, even with a wealth of top-half EPL clubs advancing in the bracket. That’s all over as of this weekend. Worse still for Middlesbrough, Nottingham, and fellow underdog Southampton, the aforementioned squads are drawn against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City respectively in quarter-final bouts.

Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool are drawing a majority of FA Cup futures bets in a similar fashion as how the trio of legacy clubs is dominating long-term odds on Premiership football. City and Chelsea have lived large in elimination-style matches for cycles now, but additionally, battled each other in memorable 1-off fixtures last season. WagerBop has documented how such clubs as Sky Blues and Pensioners cannot afford to focus completely on a single competition in the 2020s, making Pep Guardiola and Thomas Tuchel’s teams more of a threat to field top starting 11s and reach the finals of the 2022 FA Cup.

Liverpool’s (+230) market is a curious case, though then again, that’s what our blog said about Finland’s odds to win ice hockey gold this year. There’s always an angle that someone’s thought of which can make a top brand look more attractive.

Liverpool F.C. manager Jürgen Klopp is known to limit his squad’s lineup in domestic tournament kickoffs, to the degree at which supporters accuse Klopp of throwing the matches to eliminate a lower-prestige nuisance from the Reds schedule. Klopp would have every reason to pursue such a strategy in 2022, with a Champions League quarter-final draw coming up soon, and the club already having played in the EFL Cup final. But with irony, Klopp could find himself compelled to field an ideal lineup in the semi-final round and potentially in the FA Cup Final, provided Reds dispatch Nottingham Forest.

Premier League bias is at work on the FA Cup betting board’s lower rungs. Everton is drawing championship bets at an optimistic 12-to-1 thanks to the club’s fortunate quarter-final draw against Crystal Palace, and the fact that Toffeemen have played to a level so far below the lineup’s ceiling of quality in 2021-22 that FA Cup glory is all Everton has left to shoot for. Crystal Palace and Southampton are familiar league teams with canny, clever defending styles, often a crucial weapon in elimination play. Still, the bracket’s pair of remaining lower-tier sides have demonstrated form that could out-pace Watford, Burnley, Norwich City, and potentially other teams languishing on the top-tier table. With the exception of Middlesbrough’s penalty-round defeat of Man United, neither Q-Final upstart has eked-out victories by defending for 120:00 and manufacturing a winning tie-breaker, as Real Salt Lake frustrated the favored Seattle Sounders in last year’s MLS Cup Playoffs. Middlesbrough held the football for more than 50% of its 1-0 defeat of Tottenham Hotspur in the 5th round. Likewise, in February 6th’s stunning upset at City Ground, Nottingham Forest accomplished the unlikely by schooling Leicester on how to counter.

What quarter-final round minnow is offered at more generous odds to win? Scroll for a rundown of this week’s FA Cup match odds…and a recommended pick for each.

Middlesbrough F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. (Saturday, March 19)

Despite not having shown the elite-level attacking prowess of Nottingham Forest in their run to 2022’s quarter-final round, the stubborn Middlesbrough footballers are still craving another “ugly” victory over the English Premier League and a berth in the semis. Chelsea Football Club’s inconsistent defending form against opponents like Luton Town in the FA Cup, and Palmeiras in the 2022 Club World Cup, is making the current odds a fairly tight affair for a league vs league game.

Christian Pulisic is healthy and scoring goals, but a few too many of Chelsea’s supporting cast are wounded or fatigued. Chelsea can be expected to play without an ideal lineup, or marked forward numbers, in a Champions League tie played today, given the club’s built-in 2-0 aggregate lead on Lille. Football Association Cup gamblers are imagining a visiting Premier League side that’s become attuned to slow-paced soccer, without the momentum necessary to carry a blow-out type of betting line against Middlesbrough on Sunday. As a result, the usually-stingy FanDuel Sportsbook offers a generous (+168) payoff on Over (3.5) goals.

London’s forecast of a cautious Blues win is reflected in the prop betting odds of (+230) on a 1-0 halftime Chelsea lead. Those who think Chelsea can break through the staid, physical Middlesbrough back line for a 2-0 lead at half will wager odds of (+700) or 7-to-1. Recommendations should tack to the latter handicap, given the bet’s handsome potential payoff on a 45+ minute outcome that’s just about as likely as a 1-0 Chelsea advantage a half would be.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chelsea 2-0 (Exact Half-Time Score Prop Bet) (+700)

Crystal Palace vs Everton F.C. (Sunday, March 20)

Money-line and FA Cup championship-futures gamblers are at “odds” with each other in several ways this March, including the discrepancy in gambling action on Everton’s 12-to-1 outright-winner futures line and Toffees’ unfavorable odds to win this Sunday’s fixture.

The current line on Everton to win an upset FA Cup crown may be slightly more optimistic than the futures odds on Eagles of Crystal Palace. But the expert defenders of host CPFC are drawing bets on (+110) odds to win, compared to long (+240) picks on the opposing side.

It’s possible that the futures picks are just that – designed to pay off when Everton improves in the future. Toffees haven’t scored a single goal against any English professional tier ranked higher than 6th since scoring 3 times against Leeds United’s suspect back-line on February 12th. In fact, Toffeemen have been blanked with a clean sheet by Manchester City and Southampton during their wan streak with no goals, giving Everton the ignominy of having fallen miserably short against 25% of the quarter-final field that’s survived into Saturday.

Everton’s athleticism and talent, perceived to be superior to a CFPC team that suffered a goal-scoring slump over the winter, is also impacting Toffees’ outright-winner odds. If Everton can survive the arduous trip to Selhurst Park, the club may have a better chance to manufacture 2 consecutive upsets than Eagles would with a semi-final berth. Another “hidden” factor in the odds on Sunday’s picks is that skillful, patient, well-motivated football tends to “paralyze” a Crystal Palace match as opposing footballers can do everything but score, while Eagles are constantly forced to regroup. Gamblers would not be mistaken to envision an Everton advance-on-penalties as a plausible outcome.

WagerBop’s Pick: Either Team to Win on Penalties (+450)

Southampton F.C. vs Manchester City (Sunday, March 20)

At (-420), Manchester City is a prohibitive money-line wager to defeat Southampton in Sunday’s quarter-final, with only Saints’ spirit in old-fashioned events and the thunderous grounds of St. Mary’s Stadium helping to hold the underdog’s (+950) line above a 10-to-1 offering.

Man City and Southampton fought to a 1-1 deadlock on Saints’ turf on January 22nd, with Southampton forward employing brute-force tackling to slow Sky Blues down, in lieu of the club’s typical 90 minutes of stutter-step pressing runs at the opposing back line. Citizens’ lineup was far from ideal with Jack Grealish’s pedestrian striking foot keying the attack while Three Lions mainstay Raheem Sterling exited the pitch. The group that recently clobbered Manchester United 4-1 is far more effective. City’s form in the FA Cup has largely been impeccable.

WagerBop’s Pick: Man City ATS (-1) (-130)

Sunday, March 20: Nottingham Forest F.C. vs Liverpool F.C.

The odds on Nottingham Forest to upset Liverpool are identical to Southampton’s quarter-final odds to win at (+950). Gamblers who aren’t interested in a long-shot wager have more than a negative reason to peer at the goal-total lines.

Sky Blues’ bout with Saints will feature at least 30 minutes of City’s defenders patiently working the ball around aggressive forwards and wingers. Performances could prove to be less scientific in the Liverpool match, as the confident Tricky Trees have been more dangerous with the ball than a mid-tier EPL squad when facing elimination in 2022. Liverpool F.C. is essentially hamstrung into fielding Salah and other stars for quarter-final action, and Nottingham is scarcely bound to change tactics for a historic kickoff in front of a home crowd.

Will the fixture become an “O/U derby” that pleases high-side goals bettors? FanDuel’s bookmakers think so, placing thin (-200) payoff odds on an outcome of Over (2.5) total goals at City Ground. The (-116) odds on “No” in the “Both Teams to Score” prop betting market reveals that London analysts won’t be surprised if Reds bring Nottingham’s swim to a grinding halt. But such an explosive pairing with a deeper, faster EPL lineup on the pitch could produce goals for both teams in more than a single scenario. Liverpool could be awoken by yet another fiery celebration from Nottingham, and score to level the match before the half-time whistle sounds. If Reds overwhelm Tricky Trees with multiple 1st-half tallies, a “consolation” goal for Nottingham could occur late in a 4-1 outcome.

WagerBop’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (-104)