EPL Matchweek 16 Odds and Previews: Palace vs Everton Prop Bet and Man City vs Wolves Pick

How do this weekend’s betting odds for Manchester City and the Dallas Cowboys relate to one another? It’s not just that each brand comes with mispriced money-line odds or spreads. NFL fans in the Premier League supporters’ base will tell you that Dallas (-4) at Washington Football Team is a pretty fair line for Las Vegas and London to draw. But the ML odds on Citizens – and the Super Bowl futures on “Big D” – tell another tale.

A fast, furious week of EPL football outcomes can be read as Manchester City’s vault into the driver’s seat of England’s domestic table. Man City scored a 2-1 revenge-win over West Ham that wasn’t nearly as suspenseful as the final score indicates, given that Hammers scored a consolation goal with nary a minute’s worth of added time left. Bernardo Silva’s winning goal in the next match at Villa garnered the Portuguese footballer praise as the best-attacking midfielder in the Premier League. Silva joined forces with Three Lions superstar Raheem Sterling to overwhelm Watford 3-1.

In less than 2 weeks, Man City’s odds to win the EPL have shot down as low as 1-to-2.25. But there’s an alternative way to read the Premier League table in December, which is to gauge the Premiership’s 2021-22 title race as a 3-team animal. Liverpool and Chelsea are 1 and 2 points behind Man City respectively and carry elite rosters, plenty of upside, and strong keepers.

The discrepancy in futures betting odds is largely due to City’s prodigious depth, as bookmakers and punters wait for other teams to get tired. Manchester United, the other English club with 8-figure athletes all over the pitch, is probably destined to focus on UEFA glory while sneaking into a top-4 spot on the table.

Manchester City will always be given a measure of superiority in the reserve ranks by lineup aficionados. But it’s important to note that City has been carried by its superstars, not Pep Guardiola’s crew of part-time weapons, throughout the club’s recent streak of victories. It’s those very lineup experts who should stop to rethink lines like City (1/7) vs Wolves (20/1) out of London. If Man City is destined to coast to an EPL title (Sky Blues’ current 1-to-2 futures odds illustrate that most punters think so) then Pep knows what the analysts know, and won’t dare knock his roster out just to claim every single available point before the year comes to an end.

Are there other ways that sportsbooks could be mistaken on Matchweek 16? Let’s take a Friday-through-Sunday look at some tasty potential wagers – but without neglecting those eye-popping Wolverhampton odds.

Premier League Matchweek 16 Odds, Lines, and Picks

Brentford F.C. vs. Watford F.C. (Friday, December 10)

Based on what casual supporters know of Bees football, it would be easy enough to assume Brentford’s (+110) favorite’s odds vs. Watford are a product of staunch defense and canny set-pieces. Brentford F.C.’s quartet of league victories have certainly been hard-earned, and 13th place on the Premier League table offers few prospects for a run at even a UEFA Europa League bid. Bees must be content with building from within on a limited budget, using Wolverhampton, not Chelsea, as its guidepost.

The more unique storyline, however, is that Brentford’s attack has blossomed into a form as dangerous as any “minnow” in the federation. The unexpected bounty of goal-scoring began as early as September 18th, as the upstart club scored twice in less than 7 minutes at Molineux Stadium, hanging on to vanquish Wolves 2-0 in spite of a red card for Shandon Baptiste early 2nd-half.

A flaming-hot West Ham side was then conquered by Brentford 2-1 on the road. Brentford also scored a watershed 7 goals in an FA Cup slaughter of Oldham Athletic, and somehow overcame 2 deficits to match Liverpool 3-3. As usual, “Hornets” of Watford have dealt with injury woes of their own. That being said, the club has actually tallied more than Bees in 15 matches in spite of Brentford’s recent frenzy.

Another angle that could make Watford F.C.’s (+260) odds to win tempting is that Hornets’ recent dull streak has been against a stinging schedule. Watford has lost to Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Man City over its last 7 matches, and the club’s 17th-place lineup knows that it must avoid relegation now by conquering opponents of lower status.

Recommended bet: Watford and Draw (Double Chance) (-145)

Manchester City vs. Wolverhampton (Saturday, December 11)

Let’s get back to that overheated hype for Dallas Cowboys championship prospects in 2021-22. The Dallas Cowboys have won 8 times and lost 4 times in an average federation—nay, division—and are a good bet to reach the playoffs. But the Cowboys are also drawing hype of the sort that can’t be true, such as TV pundits declaring that Dallas is fielding the best 55 players in American football. Not even the 1985 Chicago Bears, who could have chosen to win the Super Bowl by 60 points, boasted the best players in their league at every position. Same goes for Bayern Munich.

It helps a great deal (or hurts, if you’re a stuck bookmaker on Tuesday) that “Dallas Cowboys” is a brand that transcends sports and geography. People in Bangkok who couldn’t tell a touchdown from a corner-kick know that “Dallas” and “Cowboys” are almost inseparable.

Even though Citizens play in the most popular league on Earth, the same can’t be said for Manchester City soccer. Man City is a relative newcomer as a dynasty club on a stage formerly dominated by Man United, Liverpool, and Chelsea for decades. The team’s most recognizable figure, former striker Sergio Agüero, bolted for La Liga in 2021 before suffering a heart condition and retiring. Still, the EPL’s frontrunners are starting to affect the emotions, not just the analysis, of the Premier League community. Man City’s prohibitive (-650) odds to beat Wolves this Saturday are a product of Sky Blues exceedingly sky-high expectations.

Compared to Hornets or Villains, Wolves (+1900) presents a more difficult challenge. It is therefore strange how punters would overlook City’s loss to Bundesliga in UEFA competition, defender Kyle Walker’s late red card that caused dressing-room issues following the defeat, or the multiple injuries City suffered in Germany. Wolves isn’t 20/1 because the team’s back line is shaky, as Wanderers allowed 0 goals in 3 consecutive league matches before losing to Liverpool 0-1 on Saturday. Put simply, there’s no excuse for Wolves to receive 20/1 odds to win … except that Las Vegas is shell-shocked with awe over a Citizens’ overhyped lineup.

Gamblers aren’t betting the Dallas Cowboys at 1-to-7 odds. When it comes to Man City, the most exaggerated “hype” of all can be found in the sportsbook’s numbers.

Recommended bet: Wolves (+1900) (1-unit bet)

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa (Saturday, December 11)

This weekend’s Premier League action features Liverpool at just (-450) odds to defeat Aston Villa. Clearly, Reds are less overvalued at the sportsbook than Manchester City.

Villians’ brave record against Champions League level opposition in the cycle to date, and Aston Villa’s 6 victories in 15 league matches, serve to hold Villa’s line at (+1000) odds to win an upset. However, the club’s recent EPL triumphs have come against teams in the midst of swooning, such as Leicester City and Crystal Palace. The last time Villa appeared against talented opponents with league momentum on their side, Wolves, Arsenal, and West Ham took 3 points each while scoring 10 goals to Villains’ 4.

Recommended bet: Liverpool (-2) (+195)

Norwich City vs. Manchester United (Saturday, December 11)

At first glance, Man United does not appear a strong (-210) favorite on Saturday. The club’s shaky management scenario, sub-50% winning percentage in EPL matches, and the number of upsets Canaries have produced at Carrow Road do not inspire confidence in punters.

Upon further examination, however, it might turn out to be silly if handicappers don’t expect another short-term gain for Man United on the English table, just as it happened the last time United changed head coaches. Even the United States Men’s National Team enjoyed a brief streak of success when the accomplished Jürgen Klinsmann was replaced by Bruce Arena, an MLS pitch-man and stereotyped tactician of the lowest degree. It’s not as if the Stars & Stripes could boast anyone as talented as Ronaldo in 2017 or even this year for that matter.

It would be wise for punters to take 1-to-2 odds on MUFC to beat the 20th-ranked team in England when they can get them. Yes, there’s a Champions League match this Wednesday, but Man United will probably defeat Young Boys without too many fatigue issues.

Recommended bet: Man United (-210)

Crystal Palace vs. Everton F.C. (Sunday, December 12)

The plight of Crystal Palace would also resonate with American football junkies, who recognize when a team is hearing the wrong message from the wrong leadership at exactly the wrong time.

After a bummer, if predictable, dry spell in the team’s scoring, Palace is a dodgy (+130) favorite over visiting Everton on Sunday. CPFC conservatively played for a draw near the end of a scoreless 90 minutes against Leeds United on November 30th only to allow a goal in added time and drop the remaining point.

Crystal Palace failed to score in a 2nd consecutive match on Sunday, losing to Man United 0-1 despite a bounty of set-piece opportunities and opposing fouls.

Eagles footballers have been told again and again that multiple goals in every match are a luxury CPFC can’t count on, as Palace is a club built around strong defending. But the facts are plain that Eagles are defending as well as they did when the team was winning matches, as evidenced by Man United’s frustrations last weekend. It’s the offense that needs work.

Everton F.C., lead by Richarlison, had a much-needed comeback win in its last match, taking 3 points from Arsenal at Goodison Park. Given that Toffees’ road form is as indecipherable as any of this weekend’s riddles, it’s a good idea to look past Everton’s (+240) odds and browse to FanDuel’s prop-betting markets, which promise 1/1 payoffs on both sides of “Both Teams to Score.”

A 1-to-1 pick on a prop bet on “Crystal Palace” would be a score. The bonus of a payoff if Palace keeps a clean sheet makes the “no” wager a steal.

Recommended bet: Both Teams to Score (“No”) (-118)