EPL Match Odds and Betting Update: CPFC vs Villa and Burnley vs Spurs Lines and Picks

WagerBop has reported on a recent rash of betting lines that contradict other lines on the same game. For example, American football’s “Bulldogs” of Mississippi State University are (-1.5) point spread favorites for a game this week, and yet the Bulldogs are merely a (-115) wager on the money line. Even given Yankee “pigskin” scores – which more-or-less split the difference between rugby scores and basketball scores – anything close to (2) points is worth far, far more than (.05) in money-line odds.

That’s not the scenario with English Premier League odds these days, a competition on which London and Las Vegas have drawn a firm line in the sand in 2021-22. Put simply, the odds-makers think everything in European football, especially western European football, is going to wind up right back where it was in the 2010s. Get lost, West Ham, and Wolves, and anyone else who wasn’t in contention 5 years ago. Chelsea supporters can dream on – Man City will win the EPL title barring a catastrophe.

Just look at current Premier League futures odds from FanDuel:

Man City -140
Chelsea +230
Liverpool +470
Man Utd +10000
West Ham +10000
Arsenal +12000

Does it fall on WagerBop to remind sportsbooks that Chelsea leads Man City (and Liverpool) in points and goal-differential, just conquered Juventus 4-0 in a Champions League match, and spent 2020-21 whipping Citizens from pillar to post?

It’s also somewhat ridiculous that Liverpool is 5/1 to win the Premier League at only 4 points off the pace. Not only is Man City overvalued in the EPL, a competition City has actually won, but Citizens are also sharply favored in the short-term against teams that are clearly of enough quality to defeat Pep Guardiola’s side. Manchester City is a (-155) favorite to defeat PSG outright, and Paris Saint-Germain’s (+400) money-line odds represent the longest line on Parisians to prevail after 90 minutes since Neymar’s club faced a 2-1 deficit in the back end of a 2-legged tie with Citizens in April. Paris Saint-Germain took revenge on Citizens in a 2-0 victory on 9/28, and stands a point away from leading Group A after 4 round-robin matches. The odds must be crazy!

Liverpool is a terrific EPL futures pick until further notice, but championship wagers take a long while to pay-off even when successful. Let’s try to bulls-eye a few more soft, easy Premiership targets on the betting board before London realizes it’s 2021, and that the post-COVID landscape offers underdogs fresh chances, not just deja-vu.

Matchday 13: Previews and Picks for Upcoming EPL Matches

Sat. 11/27: Arsenal vs Newcastle United

For a club that just lost a league match 4-0, Arsenal sure is drawing lots of money-line bets at short odds. Reds of Liverpool sliced and diced manager Mikel Arteta’s 4-4-1-1 formation for 3 goals in the 2nd half of last week’s romp for the Anfield hosts.

Arsenal’s standing on the English Premier League table must appear tenuous to supporters who extoll the virtues of solid defending above all. Gunners are presently a top-half team with a bottom-half goal differential, and yet Arsenal is favored at (-220) odds to win.

The current numbers are justified in large part due to Newcastle’s poor form. Magpies aren’t as dull on the attack as Southampton or Norwich City – in fact the last-place club has scored goals in all but a single match since August. But despite cautious tactics that sometimes include 5-across on the back line, Newcastle seems to give up goals compulsively upon scoring them.

Callum Wilson notched what could have been a breakthrough tally at the 2-minute mark of October 17th’s contest with Tottenham, but supporting MF Isaac Hayden had a miserable day as Spurs rallied for a 3-1 advantage before half. In last Saturday’s sloppy, chaotic 3-3 draw with Brentford, center-back Jamaal Lascelles’ early goal was immediately returned by the opposing side. That being said, there is no guarantee that the Arsenal-Newcastle match will fit the pattern of how Magpies’ season has gone.

When the better lineup is playing at home, the fixture often goes how the hosts prefer it to. Arsenal has played steady, no-frills football against inferior sides for the most part, recently defeating Leeds, Leicester City, and Watford by nearly identical clean-sheet scores. Magpies probably won’t get a lead that they can give up.

Recommended bet: Under (2.5) (+142)

Sat. 11/27: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

The good and bad of “Crystal Palace 2.0” has been illustrated in the last few CPFC matches. Supporters are having more fun watching Eagles in 2021 as exciting young attackers like Odsonne Édouard step to the fore. Developing impetuous playmakers are a double-edged sword for a club like Palace, however, as speedy footballers are tempted to break ranks and go for the gusto. Eagles’ impressive back-to-back clean sheet victories over Manchester City and Wolverhampton were preceded by a 1-1 draw with Newcastle, in which CPFC’s go-ahead goal was answered in less than 10 minutes. Even more back-line lapses helped Burnley match Crystal Palace 3-3 last week as Eagles passed the football badly and were lucky to score 3 goals at all.

Crystal Palace is a (+120) money-line pick to defeat Aston Villa on Saturday, but we’re sensing greater value in FanDuel’s 1-to-1 odds on either side of O/U (2.5) goals. Villa’s attack has gone to sleep at crucial moments of every road contest since Villains upset Man United 1-0 back in September. That outcome was of many that led to Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s departure from the manager’s chair at MUFC. Meanwhile, though, the coaches at Crystal Palace are screaming at their upstart roster to get back into top form both physically and mentally.

Palace is enjoying more upside thank usual thanks to an improved attack, but the club’s brass knows to tighten the reins after giving up 3 goals to Clarets. CPFC can’t survive Premier League cycles without posting a few clean sheets in the process.

Recommended bet: Under (2.5) (-118)

Sat. 11/27: Norwich City vs Wolverhampton

Wolves are working on what could be the finest top-level domestic league run in the club’s storied history. Like clockwork, the team has mastered Premier League survival, progressed to a top-half placement and UEFA honors, and finally arrived as a contender for top-4 on the 2021-22 table.

With such recent success, why is there only a (+115) line on Wolves to beat Norwich City on Saturday? Canaries have shown life over the past 2 EPL weekends, besting Southampton and Brentford to gain 6 much-needed points. But meek 1/3rd ball-possession marks for Norwich in both battles betrays a stat line that isn’t very remarkable. A disciplined team that avoids counter-rushes can conquer Carrow Road without too many episodes. Wolverhampton is a perfect candidate for the chore, having walloped several similar hosts already this season.

Recommended bet: Wolves

Sat. 11/27: Liverpool vs Southampton

At (-380), the odds on Liverpool to beat Southampton in 90+ minutes are prohibitively short, but that’s pretty fair play for a team threatening dual league trophies in 2021-22. Betting odds of 1-to-4 can be included on a parlay effectively when victory for the favorite seems assured. Yet punters are aware that Reds dropped 5 points in recent Premiership fixtures against Brighton and West Ham, prodding wise handicappers to look at other odds offerings as well.

A tempting (+230) prop odds for Salah to score the meeting’s maiden goal have undoubtedly drawn the eyes of many supports, as the indomitable Egyptian has scored 11 goals in 12 league matches this cycle. Still better odds on the Anfield kickoff are FanDuel’s (+110) offer on Over (3.5) goals. The combination of a sloppy Liverpool side that gives up dangerous counterplay along with a breakdown in Southampton’s midfield will likely justify the sportsbook’s current line.

Recommended bet: Over (3.5)

Sun. 11/28: Burnley F.C. vs Tottenham Hotspur

Sunday’s matchup of Burnley’s stolid tactics and Tottenham’s fancy formations may be handicapped on a simple angle: is the favored Spurs (+100) attack of such higher quality than Clarets that the fixture is a battle of bullets vs BBs?

If Lilywhites weren’t locked in a fierce Europa Conference League round-robin while also trying to climb the EPL table, the club’s odds would be drawing much more action. Spurs and visiting Vitesse of Belgium took 3 combined red cards in a grudging UEFA match on 11/4. Harry Kane‘s club will appear internationally again before visiting Burnley on Sunday.

Recommended bet: Over (2.5) (-106)

Sun. 11/28: Chelsea F.C. vs Manchester United

The marquee match this weekend pits Premier League clubs headed in disparate directions. Chelsea is flying high with the best Yankee footballer alive in Christian Pulisic, potentially poised to follow-up on Champions League glory with a run at domestic hardware. Manchester United has sacked popular coach Ole Gunnar Solskjær following a series of dismal outcomes. Betting odds on the kickoff at Stamford Bridge include 5-to-1 money-line markets on Manchester United to win in 90+ minutes, and a (-165) payoff on the same outcome for the opposing club.

Ole was never England’s finest tactician, but his original presence as an “interim” manager helped calm Red Devils anxiety and produced so many short-term wins that a contract was soon agreed-upon. MUFC won’t make the same mistake again and limit the club’s ceiling of performance with anything less than a “premier” head coach.

However, there’s no reason why the Ole-to-interim change of the present can’t produce another temporary uptick in form and morale. In any case, it’s rare to find 5/1 odds on Ronaldo’s team to defeat a domestic rival on any weekend.

Recommended bet: Man United (+480)