English Premiership Odds, Previews, and Picks: Sky Blues vs Spurs Headlines Opening Weekend

The American football season has a way of sneaking up on people. The English football reason really has a way of sneaking up on people.

Wasn’t it just yesterday that 2 EPL legacy teams were fighting for the UEFA title? That’s to say nothing of the drama supporters have been put through in the international sphere. We’ve had a European championship, 6 Olympic medals, the Copa America, and Gold Cup trophies awarded over the summer, and already there’s a whole new blitz of Champions League qualifying.

Preseason “futures” odds on a next Premier League champion have almost gotten lost in the shuffle, hidden beneath too busy a sports world to produce the normal kind of betting action. There are other reasons, though, why long-term bets on the EPL are viewed by some sharks as a somewhat dodgier proposition in the post-COVID era.

The reality – or at least the widespread perception – is that those who aren’t wagering on a thin Manchester City line-to-repeat are bound for a lengthy, sullen, frustrating fan experience, and a spring letdown.

English Premier League 2021-2022: Handicapping the Futures Odds

We’re going back to 2019-2020’s format of a weekly introduction followed by at least 10 Premier League betting lines and predictions, making it unnecessary to follow the futures odds every week during (what we hope will be) the EPL’s maiden full campaign of a new decade.

However, a look at the league’s preseason title odds* is not only standard but wise headed into a fresh 38-match ledger.

(*Sports-writing and grammar are such a bad fit! For those glancing through the page without thinking critically, we don’t refer to odds on “preseason title” like the International Champions Cup, but the odds on a Premier League title as of preseason, creating a similar paradox when touting EPL odds as when people say, “the O/U looks dodgy at Anfield” like they’re watching the betting odds warm-up on Liverpool’s pitch.)

Maybe some of the numbers are making punters uncomfortable, but outright-winner odds analysis is incumbent with 1 club drawing a majority – yes, a majority – of the wagers on 20 total clubs.

2021-22 Premier League Outright Winner Odds

(Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Man City -155
Chelsea +470
Liverpool +500
Man Utd +900
Leicester City +5000
Tottenham +6000
Arsenal +6000
Southampton +10000
Aston Villa +10000
Wolves +10000
Newcastle +10000
Brighton +10000
Leeds +10000
Everton +10000
West Ham +10000
Crystal Palace +10000
Burnley F.C. +10000
Norwich City +10000
Watford +10000
Brentford F.C. +10000

No need to fire-up the Redcoat marching band. It’s not as if the world has turned upside down.

In fact, the Premier League futures odds of 2021 pose a familiar dilemma. Upstart clubs like Aston Villa, and sentimental fan-favorites like Wolverhampton, are offered at “jackpot” 100/1 odds to win the EPL next spring. But how much of a chance does a squad like Wanderers or Villains really have to finish #1 on the table, ahead of pricey collections of talent like Manchester City, Liverpool, or Chelsea? Premiership gamblers are used to choosing from a handful of “realistic” potential winners and leaving the very long-shots alone.

But if that formula is changing, it’s only because Man City is threatening to turn the league’s other 19 shields into “long-shots.”

Citizens blew away the 2020-21 Premier League with a record of 27-5-6, finishing 10 points ahead of Man United in 2nd place. That’s no typo of a minus-mark in front of City’s (-155) odds to repeat as England’s league champion. Bets on Sky Blues to maintain their domination are risking more than the book will pay out.

Why is Manchester City such a prohibitive favorite to repeat, especially after falling short in yet another cycle of the Champions League Supporters know that City has been prioritizing UEFA success above all other competitions for a few years now. However, Champions League schedules (and FA Cup schedules) are light compared to the weekly, sometimes harsher pace of the Premier League’s grueling slate.

Every EPL club puts its best 11 on the pitch for big international fixtures, and every top-level club manages its best players minutes carefully in less-prestigious settings. But it is held that Man City, with its incredible depth of quality and next-best lineups at manager Pep Guardiola’s disposal, can notch more victories in less-than-ideal circumstances than any other UK team.

Raw numbers appear to confirm the theory. Citizens scored 6 more winners than Manchester United and 7 more wins than Liverpool in 2020-21, even though Red Devils and Reds lost 6 and 9 matches respectively, comparable to City’s half-dozen defeats. Sergio Agüero and Kevin de Bruyne were held back by injuries and combined for 37 EPL appearances and 10 goals. But in the absence of the usual guns blazing at striker and midfield, players like İlkay Gündoğan stepped to the forefront in league play. Gündoğan scored 13 goals in just 23 starts last season, nearly eclipsing Three Lions star Raheem Sterling in total tallies accounted-for. City can afford to rest players and still win.

Still, it’s been only a single cycle since Liverpool ran away with the EPL crown. Reds of 2019-20 maintained a winning streak of 18 matches between October and February, while in midst of a staggering 68-match invincible streak at home. Salah’s team can boast of having had less changes and tinkering with its roster going into autumn 2021, as Agüero is leaving the English Premier League altogether to play for F.C. Barcelona. However, Man City is known to be closing-in on a deal with famed Tottenham striker Harry Kane.

Man United footballers must feel insulted over a 9/1 futures line at sportsbooks. After all, the storied team finished EPL runner-up in spring ahead of Chelsea Football Club, even though the latter brand enjoyed a UEFA triumph in summer. It’s understandable that FanDuel’s speculators are passing-up big preseason bets on MUFC, given that Manchester United is said to be losing the “Harry Kane sweepstakes” of 2021’s transfer cycle.

Moreover, Red Devils manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer could be losing the commitment of his athletes at an inconvenient time, according to multiple reports. The club could wind up paying a price for promoting Solskjaer in a flash of gratitude following a 2019 winning streak.

Chelsea isn’t a 5/1 underdog due to its 2021 record vs Man City. Blues manufactured an amazing “trifecta” of league, tournament, and international wins over rival Citizens, earning a Champions League crown in an historic high-point for the shield.

United States product Christian Pulisic missed the USMNT’s Gold Cup win, but don’t hold that against him. The Chelsea midfielder’s star power heralds a new era of U.S. talent in the UK.

Premier League Matchday 1 Odds and Best Bets

Friday, August 13: Brentford vs Arsenal

There’s an outcry in my Missouri town over a new “promotion and relegation” system for football, with fans of dominant U19 sports brands calling it “communist.” While blogging locally as “The Gridiron Geek,” I have tried to explain that nothing could be more “communist” than the typical American club-sports setup in which teams are rewarded for losing. Nothing could be less communist than a promotion system that rewards success and penalizes failure, provided that athletes and supporters are savvy enough to see a division level-up as an honor even as it means the schedule becomes a harder row to plow.

In the UK, that’s no problem. Everyone is well used to P&R and sees the bright side of it. Brentford hosting Arsenal to kick-off a new English Premier League season is not a reason for Bees faithful to grumble, in fact it’s among the rare pleasures in the universe to watch a newly promoted club ascend into the highest ranks in soccer. EPL officials have suddenly become the “faces” (not the “heels”) of western European soccer due to successfully fighting-off 2021’s ill-fated “Super League” concept from becoming a reality, and the goodwill can only grow given the league’s consideration put into letting a new Premiership representative have its day on a stand-alone broadcast. (NFL commissioner Roger Goodell would have advised the Premier League to begin the season by pitting Chelsea against Man City, while NHL commish Gary Bettman would form “Team Free Europe” and “Team Solar System” for a 20-match series before anyone else got going.)

FanDuel’s got a (+320) moneyline on Bees in spite of the special, emotional circumstances. Motivation and a unique scenario aren’t good enough angles to prompt an underdog bet by themselves, but remember we’ve seen Gunners roll-over dead early in a season fairly recently.

Pick: Brentford 

Saturday, August 14: Man United vs Leeds United

Okay, so a legacy team is playing in the 2nd fixture of opening weekend, though against a relative newcomer in Leeds. As discussed in the section above, Manchester United’s belated dash to runner-up position was overlooked by everyone except punters, who know how unlikely it would be for Leeds United (+490) to take 3 points on Saturday. Man United’s odds are close to 1-to-2 and not a great risk to take on Matchday 1.

But the pessimistic (+132) odds on U(2.5) make an awfully nice price, given that United’s superstars may be put-off in the 1st half by an early kickoff time and the natural feeling-out process of a season’s start not unmarred by lasting fatigue and coronavirus concerns.

Look for Red Devils to prevail by a 1-0 or 2-0 score.

Pick: Under 

Saturday, August 14: Everton vs Southampton

Southampton got off to an impressive start last season, threatening a Cinderella run at a UEFA bid and becoming 1 of the rare teams to defeat stubborn Sheffield United by 3 goals. Saints (+300) went on to upset visiting Liverpool 1-0 at St. Mary’s Stadium before falling back to 15th due to fatigue and attrition late in the cycle. But optimism for Toffeemen runs deep in almost every transfer window, helping an Everton team that won 17 matches in 2020-21 to solid favorite’s odds.

Pick: Southampton

Saturday, August 14: Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

Liverpool has a predictable (-330) line to beat promoted Norwich City on the opening Saturday of league play. But in a sign of the times, European club champion Chelsea F.C. has an even shorter line-to-win on 8/14, nearly 1-to-5 odds against visiting Crystal Palace.

Beware, however, the effects of CPFC’s zonal defending vs a squad still finding its sea legs for the new campaign.

Pick: Draw (+500)

Saturday, August 14: Leicester City vs Wolves

Once again, the Under (2.5) is a solid pick at close to 1/1 odds, as Leicester City vs Wolverhampton is a fixture not unlike Finland vs Russia in hockey. You can’t ensnare an animal that doesn’t get into the trap, and the clear-and-counterattack styles of Foxes and Wanderers could cancel each other out on what’s forecasted to be a rainy day.

Pick: Under 

Saturday, August 14: Norwich City vs Liverpool

When a wet pitch is potentially in the offing, the right lean is often “under” on clubs without elite 11-on-11 attacking quality, who’re likely to flub even more passes and boot too many shot-attempts wide over the crossbar. However, showers can take a fast-paced match and turn the action up to foosball (not fooTball) speed, prompting a look at the Over (3.5) market at FanDuel, again priced attractively at (+120).

It wouldn’t be surprising if Reds, not known for the defending form of Gil Azzurri, give up a tally due to disorganization. Canaries are bound to struggle far worse without the ball, due to heat and humidity wearing down the host back line while Liverpool’s forward passes could be flying across a damp surface to open strikers on the wing.

It might not be a corker, but goals may be popping-off all over.

Pick: Over 

Saturday, August 14: Watford vs Aston Villa

One could say this is a match-up of 2 Premier League “bubble” teams, who are familiar with each other from competition at multiple league levels and in every comprehensive domestic tourney. Except that Villa has proven itself as formidable as any mid-tier EPL club as of 2021, and could have even finished top-half without a poor finish in May.

Villians were full of spirit while roaring through a summer schedule of mostly clean-sheet wins in friendlies.

Pick: Aston Villa (+125) 

Saturday, August 14: Burnley vs Brighton

Burnley F.C. is the (+200) underdog at Turf Moor for some reason, even though Brighton has produced 0 positive results of any kind since upsetting Man City 3-2 in May, in a match City was ill-prepared for.

Pick: Burnley

Sunday, August 15: Newcastle vs West Ham

An unpredictable meeting prompts our “pass” for the weekend. Not every match has to become a wager, dear reader.

Pick: No bet

Sunday, August 15: Tottenham vs Manchester City

How much did Harry Kane’s presence at striker mean to Tottenham? Spurs would only rarely be a 5-to-1 underdog at home against even mighty Citizens. But handicappers who set the opening odds for Sunday’s clash at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium expected Kane to shine against his former club in an important debut for both teams.

It turns out that Kane is staying with Tottenham for the time being in spite of controversy over a missed training session. Perhaps a negotiation with City fell through at the last minute, but the Three Lions striker won’t play for either club this weekend.

FanDuel has priced the Over (2.5) at (-126), almost daring punters to wager for a big goal-tally from 2 clubs who are both disappointed over not having a player – the same player – on the squad. But a 2-2 draw pays off the same as 0-0 and 1-1, and it’s wiser to throw a unit (or a half-unit) at 3-to-1 odds on a plausible result than to try to figure out how each manager will strategize around an absence of golden boots.

Pick: Draw (+300)