English Premier League: Harry Kane’s Spurs Decision Affects Odds on Matchweek 3

This week’s Premier League report and recommendations have obviously gone a day late for publish. Punters would be correct to assume that WagerBop’s EPL handicapper is as lazy as the next Yankee, and often late to publish through his own malfeasance. However, I’ve got a funny feeling Premiership supporters already know which headline rocked our curator’s office and changed the paradigm for a week of soccer betting…as of Thursday.

So the inimitable Three Lions striker Harry Kane is staying at Tottenham after all. From a visceral POV, the report is a stunner. Kane wasn’t playing for Spurs. He had spent the whole offseason negotiating with Manchester City and other top European clubs. Tottenham Hotspur, of course, can be called a “top European club” after mounting the summit of UEFA competition less than 24 months ago, but that’s not the point, which is that there appeared to be a lot more fire to the smoke when it came to reports of Kane leaving Tottenham over the summer.

It wasn’t like Paul Pogba’s ongoing tabloid news cycle, which has the Manchester United superstar “TRANSFERRED TO NEW CLUB! IMMINENT!” about once a week. Kane’s rocket-dating in a short “offseason” window (is there really an offseason in soccer?) was more than an open secret – it left journalists and Spurs supporters alike convinced that the crafty attacker was headed out.

Then there was THIS morning’s Premier League headline, which readers might have “guessed” was the real late-prediction culprit, were they not paying close-enough attention to the timeline. Ronaldo – the one and only – is coming to the United Kingdom to play for MUFC.

In a sense, those “IMMINENT TRANSFER!” click-baiters were right after all, albeit about the wrong popular footballer and 100% by accident. Keep going, copy-and-paste EPL bloggers – almost every superstar has to transfer sometime, and so your stopped-clock accuracy is bound to prevail every 12 hours. Or 12 years.

Has anything like this happened in 12 years? 2 Premier League clubs perceived as elite, but lacking the firepower of 2021-22 EPL and UEFA favorite Man City, have gotten a jolt of offense that could carry any competitive team to the promised land. In Tottenham’s case, the club welcomes a player on board who’s already ingrained into the lineup’s leadership structure and knows its tactics. Ronaldo, meanwhile, has the advantage of transferring as a player who does not need to be “set up” or “accommodated” as many legends of the sport have required to perform at top quality for their clubs.

For instance, Pele and Messi are players whose personal accomplishments are spectacular, but whom benefited most from a concert of well-tuned finesse footballers who knew exactly how to take advantage of each man’s running, passing, and vision. United has a different, “turnkey” type of difference-maker in the fold.

Ronaldo can convert on an easy opportunity with icy cool, and fares well in collaboration with other attackers. But where he really thrives is when a match proceeds “normally” with each set of forwards producing low-% chances to shoot on-target. At that point, Ronaldo’s unprecedented ability to strike and score from well outside the range of a mortal human being turns the pitch on its end against the opposing team. Defenders and midfielders must expand their formations and battle for the football in space that would normally be a comfortable spot to keep the attackers in. No defending unit that ever faces Ronaldo is comfortable.

If Ronaldo is challenged physically by an impatient back 4, that’s when it gets really fun. CR7’s skill set as a pure striker is so highly advanced that a free kick becomes as suspenseful as a penalty.

Where might 2 smash-headlines about 2 already-elite rosters affect 20 teams’ worth of Premier League odds? On the futures betting board, of course. Let’s glance at current Outright Winner odds before dishing 10 recommended picks for 10 upcoming matches.

Premier League Outright Winner Odds on 8/27

(EPL Futures lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Man City +115
Chelsea +270
Liverpool +430
Man Utd +650
Tottenham +4400
Leicester City +5000
West Ham +7500
Arsenal +10000
Southampton +10000
Aston Villa +10000
Wolves +10000
Newcastle +10000
Brighton +10000
Leeds +10000
Everton +10000
Crystal Palace +10000
Burnley F.C. +10000
Norwich City +10000
Watford +10000
Brentford F.C. +10000

It’s not as if the huge striker-stories are having a huge impact on the numbers at present. In fact, Premier League futures speculators might look to take advantage of FanDuel’s current odds to place bets on Man United or Tottenham or both, if you believe that the acquisition of Ronaldo or the surprise “re-acquisition” (of sorts) of Harry Kane at Spurs, who for all the reports and rumors floating about, was at least NOT playing for Tottenham until now – that much we know for sure – and risking his team’s chances in the process. Good thing Harry knows he can trust Son and his other teammates to make Premier League noise in his absence…as they have.

As for United’s line only ticking shorter by a buck to (+650), perhaps the betting action on Ronaldo’s new club hasn’t really set-in yet at FanDuel, or punters aren’t fond of United’s so-so start to the cycle to begin with. Then again, favored Citizens began by losing.

City made no mistake about a return-to-form by whipping Canaries 5-0 following Citizens’ upset loss to Tottenham. Yet it’s Chelsea Football Club drawing the most betting action to win the Premier League, after Blues executed another clean sheet against Arsenal to move to 2-0-0 with no goals allowed so far. It’s a nice statistical mark for Edouard Mendy and the Pensioners back line, and nice to see the USMNT’s marquee superstar Christian Pulisic and his EPL team off to a solid start. At the same time, Chelsea’s 2 victims have been Crystal Palace and Arsenal, the former of which remains a fair-to-middling top-level club and the latter of which is struggling all over again.

EPL handicappers have already seen 2021’s calculus suddenly change due to an upset defeat on Matchday 1. Man City fell to Tottenham on the 2nd weekend of August despite Harry Kane’s absence from Spurs. Kane, of course, was thought to be headed to City by now. Suddenly, for the first time since Citizens took command of the EPL table in 2019-20, City’s odds to win the next English Premier League title have a “+” in front of them.
Manchester City blew away the 2020-21 Premier League with a record of 27-5-6, finishing 10 points ahead of Man United. Yet it’s MUFC that’s 1 of only 4 teams considered to have a realistic chance to lift the hardware next spring. United defended well and controlled last week’s match against host Southampton, but an own-goal doomed Red Devils to 1 point.

Finally, it’s noteworthy that West Ham is among just 7 Premier League clubs drawing anything other than (+10000) action on a 1st-place finish. Hammers are attacking with the quality and grace of an EPL aristocrat, scoring 3 times in the 2nd half of an opening win over Newcastle and getting 2 goals from striker Michail Antonio in last weekend’s upset of Leicester City. West Ham leads the league with 8 tallies on the young cycle, but it’s important to mention that late summer is the time for “minnows” to swim fast in domestic league races. Hammers have a long way to go before the 2021-22 squad can be considered a contender. It’s also ironic that West Ham is drawing extra bets thanks to a surprising win over Foxes, a brand which stunned the UK with an EPL championship in 2016.

Premier League Matchweek 3: Betting Odds, Lines, and Best Picks

Manchester City vs Arsenal

All due respect to FanDuel’s “optional” O/U goals odds, but let’s turn to good old Bovada Sportsbook to find a consensus on goal-totals and 1/1 markets on the Over/Under.

Man City and Arsenal’s O/U of (3) goals would lead to an easy “Over” pick on most occasions, given how porous Gunners can be on the back line early in a cycle. But without Sergio Aguero, the aristocrats are facing a potential “Chelsea in 2019” crisis just as Tottenham and Man United have never looked more secure at striker. That’s another reason City’s short Outright Winner odds for the Premier League make less sense all the time. Saturday is the exception to the rule for betting O(3) on a City match against a steep underdog (a 9-to-1 underdog in Arsenal’s case).

Pick: Arsenal (+2) ATS

Aston Villa vs Brentford

Bovada’s bookies might think they’re clever slapping (-125) payoff odds on U(2.5) for Brentford’s visit to meet Villains. The line, however, should really have been dropped to (2) goals even.

Pick: Under 

West Ham vs Crystal Palace

Surprising “Hammers” are a heavy (-185) favorite to win Saturday after taking the table by storm in opening weeks. Over/Under “goals” gamblers could be intrigued by FanDuel’s optional lines on the contest. While CPFC’s defending style lends itself to “Under” outcomes, West Ham’s attack carries a lot of momentum into the fixture and should be alight in front of supporters.

Pick: Over (2.5) 

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton F.C.

Bovada’s pair of Asian Handicaps are a bad omen for the 1/1 markets on Seagulls’ upcoming match, so we’ll stick with the moneyline as another unexpected 2-0-0 club looks to extend its mojo.

Pick: Draw (+250) 

Newcastle United vs Southampton

Under (2.5) goals would typically be the best pick for St. James Park on Saturday, but Newcastle is struggling to defend and feeling miserable after 2 Premier League losses and a clean-sheet defeat to Burnley in the Carabao Cup’s 2nd round. Magpies will be frantic to produce a better attack and secure 3 points at home against the pressing and counterattacks of Saints, leading to what could potentially be the weirdest and fastest-paced match of the day.

Pick: Over 

Norwich City vs Leicester City

A moneyline of (-115) on Foxes is way too thin, as WagerBop likes Leicester City to set off on the right foot (or the left-instep) and get its season rolling in-earnest with a solid win over Canaries.

Pick: Leicester City

Liverpool vs Chelsea F.C.

Saturday’s marquee match has odds of (+100) riding on O(2.5) despite a lot of attacking talent on the pitch. Bookies think Chelsea is going to come in with a similar game-plan as in the club’s recent low-scoring defeats of mighty Man City. They could be correct.

Pick: Under 

(Sunday)

Burnley vs Leeds United

Clarets look way too challenged with the football to take advantage of a relative newcomer, even at Turf Moor.

Pick: Leeds United (+140) 

Tottenham Hotspur vs Watford

Harry Kane will start for Spurs (-210) this Sunday, but the outcome of a Premier League match is usually more dramatic than it ought to have been when Tottenham is involved.

Pick: Over (2.5)

Wolverhampton vs Man United

Manchester United (-130) faces its maiden “snake pit” test of the season, going on the road to face Wolves at Molineux Stadium. Wolves has lost consecutive 0-1 results in an inauspicious start for the popular EPL club, but managed a 4-0 victory over Nottingham Forest in a Football League Cup match on Tuesday.

Ronaldo’s by-God-imminent arrival is bound to perk up Red Devils whether he plays in the match or not.

Pick: Man United