English Premier League Goal Spread Pick: Eagles vs Clarets at Selhurst Park

On Matchday 14, an afternoon kickoff (AM in the United States) pairs a couple of clubs that have virtually no chance to win a Premier League title any time soon. Crystal Palace is currently 16^th on the EPL table with the Clarets nipping at its heels (talons?) in 17^th place.

The Eagles are 1-goal favorites to beat Burnley at home, and enjoy a (-175) moneyline next to a hefty (+480) payoff line for the visitors.

The prevailing sentiment around a cautious, zonal-defending team like CPFC is that Burnley is the type of club that the Eagles can play and beat, while the former should be handicapped as a very long-shot against anyone with more talent…say Manchester United.

But that’s not always how it goes on the pitch. To wit, on Matchday 13 the Eagles faced the Red Devils and drew the match 0-0. Despite playing at Old Trafford, United failed to score on 5 on-target shots and failed on 10 straight corner kicks. Prior to that outing, powerful Tottenham only managed to challenge keeper Wayne Hennessey twice on 11/10, winding up lucky to find the net just once in a 1-0 victory.

But that’s the upside of building a club around a gritty backline and a foe-frustrating 4-4-2 style. There’s a downside too…and it doesn’t go away just because an opponent is less-respected on the attack.

Crystal Palace is not 16^th in the EPL table because of its matches against the best clubs in English football. It is 16^th because of its fixtures against the also-rans.

CPFC had a good chance to beat Newcastle in late September. But the Eagles squandered opportunities to score and only managed a scoreless draw at Selhurst Park.

On October 6^th Palace held Wolves to just 32% ball-possession and 3 corner kicks, but were unable to whip up an attack themselves, falling 0-1 to a Matt Doherty goal in the 56^th minute.

Careful, grinding teams in any sport have a small margin-of-error. Like a ball-control club in American football, a methodical half-court team in basketball, or a “collapse” defending unit in ice hockey, when things go absolutely right, the strategy is almost a foolproof way not to lose. But the house of cards can collapse whenever an opponent is able to match their patience and intensity in defending.

The Eagles’ lack of scoring ability has been striking – excuse the pun. The backline of Tomkins, van Aanholt, Schlupp, Wan-Bissaka and Sakho has combined for exactly 1 goal on the season. Only 3 goals have been produced by the midfielders, 2 of which have been scored by Serbia National Team footballer Luka Milivojevic.

Forward Wilfried Zaha is carrying the entire Palace attack, but a recent injury knocked him out of multiple matches. He’s only scraped-out 3 tallies in 11 appearances. Zaha returned to the lineup for the 0-0 draw against Manchester United, along with Tomkins and Sakho.

Meanwhile, Burnley has been in a bad slump since beating AFC Bournemouth and Cardiff City in late September.

A loss to unheralded Burton in the Curacao Cup felt ominous. But few Claret supporters could have imagined that the club wouldn’t win a Premier League match in all of October or November. Winnable fixtures against Leicester City and Huddersfield turns into draws. Meanwhile, pairings against City and Chelsea ended predictably, with the Sky Blues and the  Pensioners combining to win 9 goals to 0.

The most ignominious result, however, may have come on November 3^rd as 14^th-place West Ham hosted the Clarets and won 4-2, taking 10 on-target shots and feeding striker Marko Arnautović via a 4-1-4-1 formation that confused a conservative Burnley side.

Three Lions defender James Tarkowski had an absolutely miserable day, giving up the ball to the opposing striker for an easy goal in the 10^th minute.

Gudmundsson is having a fine season, scoring 2 times and assisting on 4 more tallies from midfield. But Wood and Cork (a pair beloved by craft-makers around the world) have only combined for 1 goal in over 20 appearances.

Despite the doldrums, does Burnley have value as an underdog pick at Selhurst Park, by hook, crook, Wood or Cork? Yes…but not on the moneyline.

Eagles are excited to have Zaha back in the fold, and it’s never a bad thing when the backline is shored up for a club that likes to defend stubbornly.

But even if CPFC can be viewed as a more-solid side than Burnley at this point, there’s a reason that the 2 squads are right next to each other on the table after 13 matches.

Crystal Palace must demonstrate that it can score goals. If Roy Hodgson’s side tries a wild attacking plan, then his roster will wind up out of its comfort zone. If Palace sits back and plays cautious defense as usual instead, that’s fine, but it’s not the sort of style that is best poised to take advantage of Burnley’s shaky backline. It would cast the Eagles in a familiar role. Parrying, waiting, and struggling to generate offense that never comes.

Joe Hart and Hennessey are similar veteran goalkeepers. And I’m not seeing enough of a difference between these 2 squads elsewhere to tout any kind of value ATS for the hosts.

Instead, I’m thinking if Burnley loses, it won’t be by more than a single tally. That outcome makes a (+1) wager on the visiting underdog into a push. If the Clarets merely draw, even as they did against Leicester City and Huddersfield while fighting through a slump, then the wager is a winning one.

It’s great to make bets that have every chance of winning. It’s even better to find a bet that has very, very little chance of losing.

Take Burnley and (+1) ATS for a terrific Premier League bet this Saturday.