Soccer nicknames are interesting items. Outside of North America where some clubs still mimic the “NBA” model, the official name for a football squad is the only official name, and supporters are responsible for coming up with all nicknames.
That’s why some Football Association clubs have so many names to choose from. For instance, Nottingham Forest F.C. can be referred to as “Forest,” or otherwise Garibaldi, or Reds, or WagerBop’s sentimental favorite, Tricky Trees.
Following the club’s 3rd-round FA Cup match with Arsenal, though, Nottingham Forest should be nicknamed “The Crow Servers.”
WagerBop had opined “sagely” in January that “it would be a fairy tale fitting the scoreboard if Nottingham Forest eliminates Arsenal in the FA Cup.” Thanks for the fowl dish, Robin Hood, should I tip you in cash or do you prefer stolen emeralds?
Nottingham striker Lewis Grabban’s goal to vanquish Arsenal 1-0 raises an interesting angle in Round 4 gambling odds. We didn’t go out of our way to select lopsided pairings in the preview scroll found below – David vs Goliath matches are what the round has to offer. Could the best underdog money-line pick hail from English Championship once again, or is there an EPL bid that’s getting overlooked by London and Las Vegas…as usual?
2021-22 FA Cup 4th Round Odds, Goal Total Lines, and Picks
Manchester United vs Middlesbrough (Friday, February 4)
Drama surrounding Man United (imagine that!) peaked prior to the club’s insta-rematch with Aston Villa on January 15th, a league bout before which Ronaldo roundly criticized Red Devils in an explosive set of headlines. Strange that a player reared in European leagues that have struggled with competitive depth for decades would be the first to recognize how EPL stalwarts cannot take “minnows” lightly. Ronaldo’s quotes proved prophetic as United squandered a 2-goal lead against Villa with less than 20 minutes left to draw 2-2.
MUFC’s dressing room would not have been a fun place to be after that. However, the good news is that Red Devils have picked things up since then, vanquishing Brentford and West Ham for 6 league points and a fresh top-4 table position. Marcus Rashford has once again stolen the headlines with a flurry of goals, and Rashford joined Jesse Lingard on a reasonably strong lineup when Man United prevailed in the FA Cup’s winter Villa-United match.
Drama Part Deux, of course, arrived early in the week as Mason Greenwood was arrested on ugly sex-crime charges. While the distraction of such a scandal can be especially difficult for a team that’s just begun to regain better form, the truth is that A) Facts and justice in the Greenwood matter are 100,000x more important than whether MUFC ever wins another match, and B) the removal of a 20 y/o player, no matter how talented, is not going to make the crucial difference in a cycle in which Ronaldo was brought in to lead a veteran cast.
Meanwhile, the methodical Middlesbrough (+800) has allowed only 2 goals in its last 3 English Championship league matches. Regardless of whether outspoken CR7 appears in Friday’s tournament fixture, we’ll stick with our season-handicap of Man United as a dangerous team in all competitions outside of the Premier League, since the 2022 race for EPL hardware already seems to have come down to Manchester City and Liverpool.
But given United’s paltry 1-to-4 payoff on money-line bets to defeat Middlesbrough, better opportunities for valuable bets are found in the (-1) (+100) spread FanDuel has offered on United.
Recommended bet: Man United ATS (-1)
Kidderminster vs West Ham United (Saturday, February 5)
Hammers supporters are among those who cry “rubbish!” after a poor team performance. After West Ham’s recent pair of disappointing Premier League defeats, perhaps wiser spectators are yelling “relax!” in place of the typical lament.
For a brand with a “bottom half” reputation, West Ham’s 5th place standing on the Premiership table and 4th-round berth in the FA Cup aren’t too shabby at all. The club’s (-470) odds to beat the 6th-tier “Carpetmen” of Kidderminster Harriers on Saturday are actually not that optimistic, considering the wide gap in talent and resources of the Football Association “rivals” squaring off.
Bookmakers are imagining that West Ham’s 3-2 loss to Leeds United on January 16th could be the start of Hammers’ anticipated “reversion” to an ordinary W/L ledger, but they should know jhow unlikely it is that a ham will be swallowed by a tiny minnow.
Recommended bet: West Ham ATS (-1) (Alternate Spread)
Manchester City vs Fulham F.C. (Saturday, February 5)
London’s 1-to-10 or (-1000) money-line odds on Manchester City in Round 4 are not very reflective of the club’s last 2 appearances.
City triumphed 1-0 over Chelsea in a gigantic league match on 1/15, but committed twice as many fouls as Blues in an inartful victory by Sky Blues standards. Manchester City went on to draw 1-1 with Southampton despite peppering the Saints box with shots and crosses. Pep Guardiola’s club is not accustomed to losing to teams from outside the Premiership, though, even when they’re from outside Great Britain’s borders.
It would be a mistake to anticipate goal-scoring reversion from the EPL leaders and not also look at what Fulham is doing. Cottagers are scoring goals like a Premier League aristocrat stuck in the lower ranks as a practical joke, tallying 20 goals in 3 recent consecutive wins and paced by a hat trick from striker Aleksandar Mitrović in a 6-2 victory over Bristol City. Over/Under handicappers know what the money-line makers appear not to, giving the match (-122) odds to tally over (3.5) total goals. While the Over (3.5) isn’t a bad pick at all, the surging form of Fulham makes possible a replay via a draw.
Recommended bet: Draw (+750)
Wolverhampton vs Norwich City (Saturday, February 5)
There are a slew of lopsided odds and line-handicaps in the FA Cup’s 4th round betting ledger. Queens Park Rangers is Saturday’s only underdog at shallower than 2.3-to-1 money-line odds, and QPR isn’t playing an English Premier League club but going against Peterborough instead.
Can supporters count on an EPL vs EPL match-up at Molineux Stadium to produce tighter odds? Perhaps not. Wolves-to-win bets are selling at (-165) compared to 4/1 odds on visiting Norwich City, which is in danger of another league relegation to Championship compared to Wolverhampton’s 8th place and 10 wins.
Canaries haven’t been visiting Molineux or beating Wolves there any more than the club is a fixture in the FA Cup’s later rounds. However, the opponents played to a staid 0-0 draw at Carrow Road on November 20th, making a conservative FanDuel Sportsbook line of (-130) on U(2.5) goals a questionable offering.
Recommended bet: Under (2.5)
Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, February 5)
We finally have a favorite’s money-line market that isn’t so thin so as to make Gizelle look like a vintage burlesque bombshell. Tottenham Hotspur’s (-120) betting odds to win in the 4th Round are close enough to 1/1 to make a single money-line picks logical.
At (+300), though, Brighton still looks undervalued. Seagulls are hanging on the top half of the EPL table in February, and boast a goal-differential that’s more or less identical to what the name-brand Lilywhites are accomplishing in league fixtures of their own.
It is not like Premier League races are what the FA Cup is all about, but the underdogs are well-motivated and unbeaten on the calendar year. Tottenham Hotspur’s last 4 matches have been a bit of a bummer, as Spurs have suffered a pair of clean-sheet losses to Chelsea, a postponement with Arsenal, and nearly a loss to Leicester prior to a furious comeback in added time.
Recommended bet: Brighton (+300)
Nottingham Forest vs Leicester City (Sunday, February 6)
Watching a counter-attacking team on hostile grounds takes some getting used to. An anxious hush turns into a buzz as the supporters see Jamie Vardy breaking up the pitch, gasping in wonder at the long forward ball in his direction … and then whistling their lungs out.
Will whistling be a sweet, sweet soundtrack for Leicester City (+100) on Sunday at City Ground? “City Ground,” of course, does not refer to the “City” in Leicester City, but to the home turf of “minnow” Nottingham Forest of the Football Association Cup.
Reds are mired at 9th place on the Championship table, with few prospects of qualifying for the top level of domestic league play. However, that can make a team dangerous in tournament rounds — just ask Gunners of Arsenal. January’s big upset wasn’t the only time this cycle that “Tricky Trees” have tricked high-profile opponents.
Leicester’s kickoff-psychology may be overlooked by bookmakers, as the 1-to-1 handicapped Foxes have few reasons to play safe following a 2-week break. The upcoming Liverpool match could be a somber affair for the visitors if Foxes walk in having lost to a lower tier. Premiership teams are at their most vulnerable against minnows when FA Cup matches coincide with a busier league and international schedule than Leicester enjoys now.
Also cogent is Nottingham’s 0-4 loss to Wolves in the 2021-22 EFL Cup’s 2nd round. Such a result showed the limitations of Tricky Trees’ lineup even when EPL opponents are taking it easy. Leicester only needs to field a solid starting 11 on Sunday to snag the advantage on the stat sheet and on the scoreboard.
Recommended bet: Leicester City (+100)
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.
Twitter: @scorethepuck
Email: kurt@wagerbop.com
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