Early March Madness Thoughts and Tempting College Hoops Futures Lines

Between covering the NFL playoffs, NBA regular season, college football bowl season, and keeping up with offseason baseball transactions for my dynasty fantasy league – I do not begin writing on college basketball until January.

It is just as well. With so much turnover at the top of college basketball predicting long-term outcomes too early in the season will portray stupidity more often than not.

I feel mid-January is a bit too early to release a “bracketology” article – that is, predicting the 68-team field for March Madness. It’ll be a few weeks before you see a bracket from me. I want to do something more … accurate.

I will split the nation’s top college basketball teams into 3 categories – elite, good, and not cuttin’ it. Elite teams are going to be top seeds and are legitimate title contenders. Good teams can still nab high seeds but would need a ton of breaks to win a ‘ship. Teams that aren’t cuttin’ it might be ranked highly right now but have some major holes and are likely to fizzle out quickly come March.

I will scour Bovada’s NCAAB Futures betting lines and give my recommended value picks. All team statistics are courtesy of TeamRankings. Records and streaks courtesy of ESPN.

Be sure to catch my best CBB value futures pick of the year, below!

2020’s Elite College Basketball Teams

Elite teams are a shoo in for the tournament and have a legit shot at cutting the nets in Atlanta. These are most likely going to be your 1 and 2-seeds come March.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record (Conference): 18-1 (4-0)

Streak: W10

What They Do Well: Highest-scoring team in CBB (87.8). 3rd-best shooting team in CBB (50.2%). 14th-best 3pt-shooting team in CBB (38.5%). 13th-best rebounding team in CBB (41.3). 13th-fewest turnovers in CBB (11.1).

Big Wins: #8 Oregon

Bad Losses: #19 Michigan (by 18 points)

Championship Odds: 10 to 1. Gonzaga is great every year. The 18-1 record is no surprise. The Bulldogs are weak defensively this season – 51st in the nation in defensive efficiency. I do not think 10/1 is enough reward for your risk on the Zags.

Duke Blue Devils

Record (Conference): 15-1 (5-0)

Streak: W9

What They Do Well: 2nd-highest scoring team in CBB (83.8). 6th-best shooting team in CBB (48.9%). 18th-best rebounding team in CBB (40.9). 21st-most forced turnovers in CBB (17.1). 3rd-most blocks in CBB (6.7).

Big Wins: #6 Kansas, #15 Michigan State

Bad Losses: SFA

Championship Odds: 10 to 1. I actually like the Duke odds here. Last season, the Blue Devils had a better roster on paper. With this talent came immense pressure to succeed. Coach K still has a great team, but they are under no where near the same amount of pressure to perform. Losing early to a bad team might prove to be a good thing as Duke will be less likely to underestimate an early-round tournament opponent.

Kansas Jayhawks

Record (Conference): 12-3 (2-1)

Streak: L1

What They Do Well: 4th-best shooting team in CBB (49.9%). 8th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (37.1%).

Big Wins: #13 Dayton, #20 Colorado, #12 West Virginia

Bad Losses: None

Championship Odds: 11 to 1. The Big 12 is stacked this year. Kansas, Baylor, and WVU might get beat up a little in conference play. While the sterling record might not be there, the talent is. I don’t mind Kansas at 11/1, although I’d rather take Baylor at longer odds.

Baylor Bears

Record (Conference): 13-1 (3-0)

Streak: W12

What They Do Well: 6th-fewest opponents points allowed in CBB (58.1). 5th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.829).

Big Wins: #14 Villanova, #5 Butler, #23 Texas Tech, #6 Kansas

Bad Losses: Washington

Championship Odds: 14 to 1. This is the best Baylor team I’ve seen … maybe ever. Their lineup is stacked and strong opponents are proving no obstacle. Never before has a Baylor team won in Allen Fieldhouse … until this season. The Bears’ biggest strength is their smothering defense. They are not shabby on the offensive end either, ranking 44th in offensive efficiency. 14/1 is a great bet, but this is not even the best value in the conference. Keep reading to find out.

San Diego State Aztecs

Record (Conference): 17-0 (6-0)

Streak: W17

What They Do Well: 14th-fewest turnovers in CBB (11.1). 11th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (37.2%). 5th-fewest opponents points allowed in CBB (57.6). 9th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.833).

Big Wins: #25 Creighton

Bad Losses: None

Championship Odds: 25 to 1. With a remaining schedule riddled with weak MWC foes, we might see a 29-0 regular season from the Aztecs. This would certainly grant SDST a 1-seed. Is SDST as deep as other top teams in CBB? No, but a 1-seed would give them a couple easy ones in the tournament’s first weekend. Although I’d like to see SDST go far in March, much of their success depends on getting that top seed. This is too risky for me. I can’t do it at 25/1.

Michigan State Spartans

Record (Conference): 13-4 (5-1)

Streak: L1

What They Do Well: 16th-highest scoring team in CBB (78.9). 3rd-best rebounding team in CBB (42.8). 14th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (37.5%). 14th-most blocks in CBB (5.6).

Big Wins: #18 Seton Hall, #24 Illinois, #19 Michigan

Bad Losses: Virginia Tech, Purdue (by 29 points)

Championship Odds: 11 to 1. I like this line. Sparty is strong and well-rounded this year. Cassius Winston is a game-changer. Good tournament teams have upperclassmen guards who can score. Sprinkle in Izzo’s motivational abilities, and you have an extremely tough out come March. The Big Ten schedule is a gauntlet, but Sparty is making it look easy (until they forgot to show up in West Lafayette). Don’t let this one, ugly loss define MSU.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Record (Conference): 13-2 (2-1)

Streak: W2

What They Do Well: 5th-best rebounding team in CBB (42.2). 3rd-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (35.3%). 14th-fewest opponents points allowed in CBB (59.9). 4th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.825).

Big Wins: #16 Wichita State, #21 Ohio State, #23 Texas Tech

Bad Losses: St John’s

Championship Odds: 50 to 1. This is my favorite value futures bet right now in college basketball. The Mountaineers are scary on the defensive end. Their athleticism at the guard and forward positions wreak havoc for teams who rely on moving the ball to create open shots (nearly everyone). Oscar Tshiebwe is an eraser and a glass eater. Opposing guards think twice before slashing inside. The scary part, Tshiebwe is only a freshman. His play is going to improve exponentially as the season progresses. I see WVU being in peak form come March and making a run.

2020’s Good College Basketball Teams

Auburn Tigers

Record (Conference): 15-0 (3-0)

Streak: W15

What They Do Well: 5th-highest scoring team in CBB (82.1). 7th-best rebounding team in CBB (42.0). 8th-most blocks in CBB (6.1).

Big Wins: None

Bad Losses: None

Championship Odds: 30 to 1. I wouldn’t do it – Auburn is raw and untested. If I wanted to make a bet in this return-range, I would take SDST at 25/1. The Tigers can score with the best of ‘em, but a championship team needs to play good defense. Auburn is currently 48th in the nation in defensive efficiency – not good enough for a “mere” 30/1 return.

Butler Bulldogs

Record (Conference): 15-1 (3-0)

Streak: W6

What They Do Well: 19th-best shooting team in CBB (47.8%). 6th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (36.8%). 3rd-fewest opponents points allowed in CBB (54.4). 7th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.830).

Big Wins: #25 Creighton

Bad Losses: None

Championship Odds: 25 to 1. On paper, Butler looks great. Their numbers are good. When the Bulldogs play good teams, they lose close. But that’s the problem – they always lose close. This tells me Butler’s ceiling is not as high as other team’s. I will learn a lot about Butler in the coming week. The Bulldogs have #18 Seton Hall and #14 Villanova with lowly DePaul sandwiched in between. 3-straight wins will force me to upgrade Butler to the “elite” category and I might consider placing a 25/1 bet. Not now, though.

Florida State Seminoles

Record (Conference): 14-2 (4-1)

Streak: W7

What They Do Well: 16th-most blocks in CBB (5.6). 8th-most steals in CBB (9.5). 34th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.881).

Big Wins: #11 Louisville

Bad Losses: Pittsburgh, Indiana (by 16 points)

Championship Odds: 40 to 1. FSU is scrappy on the defensive end and is playing great ball since Christmas time – earning a lot of road wins. 40/1 is too long to pass up. FSU has 3 starters averaging double-digit points and 3 starters shooting above 80% from the line. Their biggest weakness right now? Turnovers. If the ‘Noles can play a crisper game on the offensive end, big things are possible in Tallahassee.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Record (Conference): 11-5 (1-4)

Streak: L4

What They Do Well: 22nd-best 3pt-shooting team in CBB (37.7%). 4th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (36.5%). 10th-fewest opponents points allowed in CBB (59.4).

Big Wins: #14 Villanova, Penn State, #10 Kentucky

Bad Losses: Minnesota

Championship Odds: 12 to 1. A strong Big Ten conference schedule will prep Ohio State for the battle that is March Madness. Sophomore guard Duane Washington is shooting at a 43/44/84 clip. You read that correctly … his 3pt% is higher than his FG%. With a sniper like that in your backcourt, deficits can be erased in a heartbeat. Why have the Buckeyes lost 4-straight? Turnovers. An insane amount. OSU ranks 205th in the nation in turnovers. 12/1 isn’t long enough for my liking. Washington’s shooting will help Ohio State pull upsets, but this losing streak is going to hurt their tournament seeding.

Maryland Terrapins

Record (Conference): 13-3 (3-2)

Streak: L1

What They Do Well: 15th-best rebounding team in CBB (41.2). 12th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (37.3%). 17th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.854).

Big Wins: #24 Illinois, #21 Ohio State

Bad Losses: Iowa (by 18 points)

Championship Odds: 18 to 1. Nope. I’m not touching this line. Maryland is good at many things but does not excel in any one area. This Terps team has 6-seed-that-gets-upset-in-the-first-round written all over them.

Louisville Cardinals

Record (Conference): 13-3 (4-1)

Streak: W2

What They Do Well: 25th-best 3pt-shooting team in CBB (37.5%). 5th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (36.7%).

Big Wins: #19 Michigan

Bad Losses: #9 Florida State (by 13 points), #23 Texas Tech (by 13 points)

Championship Odds: 11 to 1. I wouldn’t touch this line. The ‘Ville is too inconsistent for my liking. No great wins and too many turnovers. Despite shooting well, Louisville ranks 202nd in 3pt attempts per game. It would help their offense if the Cardinals would chuck up some more 3s. Let’s see if HC Chris Mack makes the adjustment.

Kentucky Wildcats

Record (Conference): 12-3 (3-0)

Streak: W4

What They Do Well: 12th-best free throw-shooting team in CBB (77.5%). 28th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.873).

Big Wins: #15 Michigan State, #11 Louisville

Bad Losses: Evansville, Utah

Championship Odds: 18 to 1. Right now, Kentucky’s defense is not championship-caliber. We typically see a lot of in-season improvement from Coach Cal teams, but I think UK is a bit undersized. I do not like the 18/1 line.

Dayton Flyers

Record (Conference): 14-2 (4-0)

Streak: W5

What They Do Well: 3rd-highest scoring team in CBB (83.4). Best shooting team in CBB (52.4%).

Big Wins: None.

Bad Losses: None.

Championship Odds: 25 to 1. Dayton has not proved they are good, but they aren’t bad. Sophomore Obi Toppin is an animal and deservedly in Naismith talks. The 6’9 beast is averaging 19/7/2 on 63% shooting with 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. How many turnovers, you ask? Just 2.0 per game. He’s the complete package. “Obi-spamming” works against weak opponents in the A-10 and in video games. It doesn’t work so well against big schools with athletes who can better matchup. Exhibits A and B: the Colorado and Kansas losses. I don’t like Dayton 25/1. Not long enough considering the Flyers are fully dependent on one guy.

Memphis Tigers

Record (Conference): 13-3 (2-1)

Streak: W1

What They Do Well: 4th-best rebounding team in CBB (42.2). 2nd-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (35.3%). 20th-most forced turnovers in CBB (17.1). 2nd-most blocks in CBB (6.9).

Big Wins: None.

Bad Losses: Georgia

Championship Odds: 45 to 1. Memphis has a young team. This has caused the Tigers to play down to some of their early season opponents – creating ugly wins. They’ve slipped up and lost a few, too. If the tournament started today, I’d say Memphis isn’t making it very far. This young team has a chance to gel over the next 2 months. We’ve heard plenty about the talent the Tigers possess. Let’s see if HC Penny Hardaway can put it all together. I’d be willing to bet he will … given 45/1 odds. I like this line for a team with amazing potential.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record (Conference): 10-5 (1-2)

Streak: L2

What They Do Well: 36th-fewest points allowed in CBB (62.1). 16th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.852).

Big Wins: #11 Louisville

Bad Losses: DePaul

Championship Odds: 60 to 1. Texas Tech is struggling through the loaded Big 12 right now. The truth is, it wasn’t pretty before conference play started. The Raiders are better than their record indicates, but a return to the Final Four is not a good bet to make right now. I’d monitor TTU over the next few weeks and watch for flashes of the magic they captured last season. It all starts on D. If the Raiders pick up the intensity and execution on the defensive side, they will be worth betting at 60/1. Not right now, though.

Wichita State Shockers

Record (Conference): 15-1 (3-0)

Streak: W9

What They Do Well: 22nd-best rebounding team in CBB (40.5). 25th-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (38.2%). 24th-most forced turnovers in CBB (16.8).

Big Wins: Oklahoma, #22 Memphis

Bad Losses: None

Championship Odds: 100 to 1. The Shockers are a big, long team. They rebound well and play solid defense. They have a couple of big wins under their belt. Can they keep up with the faster teams in CBB? Vegas thinks not. I say it’s worth a shot. Remember 2014? I can’t pass up 100/1 for a team playing this well.

Colorado Buffaloes

Record (Conference): 13-3 (2-1)

Streak: W1

What They Do Well: 20th-best defensive efficiency in CBB (.855). 6th-fewest team fouls in CBB (13.8).

Big Wins: #13 Dayton, #8 Oregon

Bad Losses: None

Championship Odds: 100 to 1. Colorado isn’t a spectacular basketball team. Most “pretty good” teams can play above their abilities if they get hot from 3. The Buffaloes rank 220th in 3pt shots attempted per game so a barrage from deep is not likely. I’m not too high on the teams Colorado has beaten. With no upside to propel the Buffs into the elite category, I won’t touch this line.

LSU Tigers

Record (Conference): 11-4 (3-0)

Streak: W4

What They Do Well: 14th-highest scoring team in CBB (79.3). 11th-best shooting team in CBB (48.4%).

Big Wins: Liberty

Bad Losses: VCU, Utah State, East Tennessee State, USC

Championship Odds: 125 to 1. LSU has lost to some trash teams and has not beaten anyone scary. However, I love senior guard Skylar Mays. He’s big, can shoot, and is an excellent free throw shooter. LSU can hang with anyone if Mays is on his game. I’d be willing to take a chance on these long odds.

Teams Not Cuttin’ It in 2020

 Oregon Ducks

Record (Conference): 14-3 (3-1)

Streak: W3

What They Do Well: 10th-best shooting team in CBB (48.4%). 9th-best 3pt-shooting team in CBB (39.4%).

Big Wins: #22 Memphis, #18 Seton Hall, #19 Michigan

Bad Losses: North Carolina

Championship Odds: 16 to 1. Payton Pritchard is great. Even when he is at his best, Oregon’s ceiling is not 1-seed-caliber. I’ve watched a couple of Oregon games this season. The Ducks are good, not great. They can score in bunches when Pritchard gets hot but are terrible defensively. The Ducks rank 116th in defensive efficiency. Want to know some of the teams better than Oregon defensively? New Hampshire, Fairfield, and UC Irvine.

Villanova Wildcats

Record (Conference): 12-3 (3-1)

Streak: W2

What They Do Well: 14th-best free throw-shooting team in CBB (77.4%). 21st-best offensive efficiency in CBB (1.071).

Big Wins: #6 Kansas, #25 Creighton

Bad Losses: #21 Ohio State (by 25 points), Marquette

Championship Odds: 40 to 1. Will Nova make the dance? Yeah. Will they make any noise once there? Nope. Flimsy defense will let the Wildcats down. I’m not liking this line. 40/1 is too short.

Michigan Wolverines

Record (Conference): 11-5 (2-3)

Streak: L1

What They Do Well: 17th-best shooting team in CBB (47.8%). 26th-best offensive efficiency in CBB (1.066).

Big Wins: #25 Creighton, #1 Gonzaga

Bad Losses: Minnesota

Championship Odds: 25 to 1. Michigan is doing the opposite of what good teams are supposed to do. They started strong and are hitting a skid at the beginning of conference play. Opposing coaches are figuring out how to beat the Wolverines. First-year HC Juwan Howard has his work cut out for him. Michigan’s offense routinely suffers prolonged dry spells and their D is not good enough to carry them for an entire half. I love Michigan, but I don’t think it’s smart to bet a deep run this year.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Record (Conference): 12-4 (2-3)

Streak: L2

What They Do Well: 25th-best rebounding team in CBB (40.4). 10th-most blocks in CBB (6.1).

Big Wins: #17 Maryland

Bad Losses: Ole Miss, #21 Ohio State (by 32 points)

Championship Odds: 100 to 1. There is a reason Penn State has such long odds to win the title. They do not scare opponents on either end of the court. Good rebounding keeps the Lions in games. They can steal victories this way, but hoping for last-second miracles is not a recipe for winning 6 games in a row against good teams – something PSU must do if the 100/1 wager is going to payoff.

Virginia Cavaliers

Record (Conference): 11-4 (3-2)

Streak: L2

What They Do Well: Lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (34.6%). Fewest opponents points allowed in CBB (48.7). Best defensive efficiency in CBB (.785).

Big Wins: None.

Bad Losses: Purdue (by 29 points), South Carolina, Boston College, Syracuse

Championship Odds: 40 to 1. The way the Hoos are trending, they won’t even make the dance. I’d love to put a few bucks on a repeat ‘ship but I just don’t see it happening with this UVA team. Sorry Tony Bennett, I lost faith.

Arizona Wildcats

Record (Conference): 11-5 (1-2)

Streak: L2

What They Do Well: 6th-highest scoring team in CBB (81.3). 12th-best shooting team in CBB (48.3%). 23rd-lowest opponent shooting % in CBB (38.1%).

Big Wins: #24 Illinois

Bad Losses: St John’s

Championship Odds: 25 to 1. Swiss cheese defense will prevent Arizona from advancing very far in the tourney. Fade the Wildcats.

 

Full bracketology coming soon! See you on top!