Don’t Overthink It: Good Teams Beat Bad Teams

Whew … what a grind. Here we are 75% of the way through the 2018 NFL season. I have already laid out the importance of finishing strong in my previous article (plus I gave you a pretty great late-season betting strategy).

The early Christmas gifts continue to flow out here at Wagerbop as I am prepared to write about yet another NFL betting system that is profitable over the final 4 weeks of the season. My mission is to give out as much free ammo as possible so we can take down the books together! Let’s dig in.

Good Teams Have An Advantage Late-Season

Over the past 6 years, teams with .500 records or better have played very well against losing teams in the final 4 weeks of the season. Here is a quick look.

Year	ATS %	ROI
2017	53.1%	1.4%
2016	46.7%	-10.9%
2015	53.1%	1.4%
2014	53.8%	2.8%
2013	56.3%	7.4%
2012	65.4%	24.8%
Total	54.5%	4.0%

That 4% ROI adds up. With a decent amount of plays, $100/game bettors would be up $790 since 2012. Add this amount to the total winnings from the unders system and you have a steady cash flow without having to do any handicapping! It’s plug and play!

Y’all know me. We can do better. This is the basic skeleton of the system but I know if we dig deeper we can find something more refined and more profitable.

A go-to filter to test out is always home-field. And guess what … I hit the jackpot.

Betting Winning Road Teams Late-Season

Road teams are often estimated both by Vegas and the betting public. Playing away from home normally gives a team 2 or 3 extra points in the spread that they would not otherwise be given.

The ATS numbers for winning home teams late-season were horrible. On the road, however, these talented teams take full advantage of the leniency of Vegas’ line.

Year	ATS %	ROI
2017	50.0%	-4.5%
2016	56.3%	7.4%
2015	60.0%	14.5%
2014	66.7%	27.3%
2013	60.0%	14.5%
2012	70.0%	33.6%
Total	60.0%	14.5%

60%! Most sports bettors would gladly give me their car, house, and wife if I could promise them 60% success ATS for life. That 14.5% ROI has netted $100/game bettors $1,360 since I began tracking the system.

Playing an Unfamiliar Foe

One final filter (as if 60% ATS isn’t good enough). It seems that divisional rivals bring high intensity no matter when the game occurs. Even an over-dramatized 4-win bottomfeeder is dangerous when matched up with a familiar foe.

Good teams late-season, especially those who have already clinched, often have trouble raising their intensity to the needed level to cover the spread against a hungry, losing team attempting to end their season on a good note.

Non-divisional games are a totally different story. When we add this filter, our ATS win percentage goes through the roof. Let’s recap what we have so far: We are looking at teams with a record of .500 or better playing on the road against a losing team who is NOT a divisional opponent.

Feel free to write that down if you need to. It’s a mouthful. It might not be easy to remember or say but it sure is a profitable system. Remember, this system is only for the final 4 weeks of the NFL season!

Here is a table of the past 6 season’s results.

Year	ATS %	ROI
2017	50.0%	-4.5%
2016	100.0%	90.9%
2015	71.4%	36.4%
2014	66.7%	27.3%
2013	77.8%	48.5%
2012	83.3%	59.1%
Total	73.0%	39.3%

Simply fantastic, right? Now go forth and profit!