Dolphins or Jets in Week 9?

After starting 3-0 the Dolphins have regressed back to .500. At 4-4, the Fins are no longer atop the AFC East, but all hope is not lost in Dolphinland. Miami is entering a very favorable stretch of their schedule, and that stretch begins with a home matchup against the 3-5 Jets.

New York is entering this week the losers of two straight, falling to the Vikings and Bears by an average of 17 points. Navigating his first NFL season, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is prone to many up and downs.

He is currently in a slump but has a chance to put his team into contention for a division title with 3 straight games against AFC East opponents upcoming.

To learn how the Dolphins and Jets matchup, let’s take a look at their recent meetings.

Year / Week(Wk)	Spread	Site	Score
2018 / Wk9	MIA -3	MIA
2018 / Wk2	NYJ -3	NYJ	MIA 20 NYJ 12
2017 / Wk7	MIA -3	MIA	MIA 31 NYJ 28
2017 / Wk3	MIA -5.5	NYJ	NYJ 20 MIA 6
2016 / Wk15	MIA -2.5	NYJ	MIA 34 NYJ 13
2016 / Wk9	MIA -3.5	MIA	MIA 27 NYJ 23

I really want to analyze the Week 2 matchup of this season in which the Dolphins won by a touchdown as 3-point underdogs. Let’s take a moment to recall the context of this contest.

Oddsmakers did not favor the Jets highly heading into the season with a rookie quarterback, tabbing them 7-point dogs in Detroit in Week 1. After trouncing the Lions, the Jets gained a bit of respect heading into Week 2.

Miami also played better than expected in Week 1, but were not as impressive as Todd Bowles’ squad.

What Went Down in Week 2?

After throwing 21 times for 198 yards in Week 1, Sam Darnold was given a much larger role in the offense in Week 2. Darnold wound up throwing 41 times for 334 yards against Miami.

This allowed the league to see what Darnold was capable of, but it made the Jets’ offense completely one-dimensional. New York’s leading rusher in Week 2 was Isaiah Crowell who scampered for a whopping 35 yards on 12 carries.

The Dolphins dominated every aspect of the first-half, taking a 20-0 lead into halftime. The Jets’ either turned the ball over or punted on all 6 of their full, first-half drives.

The Jets made a comeback effort after halftime but it was too little too late, as they failed to erase the 20-point deficit, falling 20-12.

The Running Game Will Once Again Be the Difference

This chart displays everything you need to know about the Jets’ 2018 season. When they run the ball well, they tend to win. When they fail to establish the run, they lose.

Week	Rush Yds	Result
1	169	W
2	42	L
3	107	L
4	34	L
5	323	W
6	107	W
7	71	L
8	57	L
Avg in 3 Wins	199.7
Avg in 5 Losses	62.2

These numbers are astounding. They show that the Jets have an explosive offense but sometimes fall into the trap of letting Darnold air it out too much.

So now we must analyze the Dolphins’ rush defense to see if New York is likely to come into town and run all over them. This following chart displays the rushing yards allowed by the Dolphins each game this year.

Week	Rush Yds	Result
1	116	W
2	42	W
3	109	W
4	175	L
5	103	L
6	164	W
7	248	L
8	188	L
Avg in 4 Wins	107.8
Avg in 4 Losses	178.5

How crazy is this? The Dolphins routinely get gashed on the ground. The only team they have held under 100 rushing yards was the Jets in Week 2. I now have enough information to create my verdict.

Verdict: Bet the Jets (+3)

The current odds are Jets +3 (-110) @ Dolphins -3 (-110). I am big on the Jets in this one for a couple of reasons. The first is that the oddsmakers have shown me they have no clue what is going to happen.

When a home team is given a -3 spread, that is the oddsmakers saying that the game is a toss-up but that the home team has a slight advantage.

If Vegas thinks this one is a toss-up, I would much rather back the more explosive team. With a 7-9 combined record, neither team has played fantastic football this season, but the Jets are more capable than Miami of taking over a game.

Adding to my confidence in New York is the fact that Sam Darnold is entering the second-half of his rookie season. He is only going to get better, and his improvement gives the Jets’ offense a greater potential to put up a big score than Miami’s.

Not only does Darnold have great potential, but sweeps are hard to complete. The Jets need a good game on the ground to open up their entire offense. This means we are betting whether or not Miami can stifle New York in two-straight contests.

I am definitely of the school that believes they cannot. Jets all the way.