Copa Libertadores: River Plate vs. Velez Sarsfield Preview, Odds, Prediction

River Plate and Velez Sarsfield meet in the all-Argentinian Copa Libertadores clash. This is the clash of the round of 16 stage, with the note that Velez has a 1-0 lead from the first leg. It will be exciting to see what happens at Monumental on Wednesday night because many believe this is the most interesting matchup of the entire round. And indeed, each time when two Argentinian teams face in the knockout stage of any of the South American international competitions, things get nasty.

Preview

River Plate (-200) lost two in a row, which isn’t a good sign for Marcelo Gallardo’s crew. After suffering a minimal defeat on the road against Velez, they were beaten against Huracan, also away from home, 3-2.

What is also problematic for this unit is that they haven’t been able to keep a clean sheet in three of the most recent five affairs, so it is no wonder why Millionaires lost three of those games.

Meanwhile, the positive thing is solid performances at home, where River lost only once in the last nine games, posting six wins and two draws. Right now, they are on a four-match unbeaten streak with three triumphs and one draw. Only one of the previous six of their home events didn’t see three more hits, and four were with both teams netting.

Velez Sarsfield (+600) has mixed results lately, and they apparently focused only on this competition, which is why they’ve lost at home in the most recent event of the Argentinian domestic league. Atletico Tucuman won at Estadio José Amalfitani, 0-1, snapping a three-game defeatless streak Velez had.

Overall, they had three losses, two wins, and a draw in the previous six contests. All of them were low-efficient affairs, and when looking further back in the past, the previous eight were with under 2.5 scores.

This is a defensive-minded unit that plays slow and very tactical football. Their preoccupation is to protect the goal first and only then to attack, and we will see how that unfolds in Wednesday’s rematch.

Latest News

Nicolas de la Cruz is out for the hosts due to his Achilles tendon injury.

The guests are coming with all their top players ready and healthy.

Head to Head Games

The opening event ended 1-0 for Velez, and the difference-maker in that event was Lucas Janson’s goal from the penalty after 15 minutes of play. After that, Velez parked the bus in front of their own goal, with River unsuccessfully trying to breach the rock-solid defense, despite having the initiative.

The most recent game before that was in August 2021, when River won at home, 2-0.

Prediction

Expect a very tough and rigid approach from the guests, who will be defending with ten players and looking for a chance to delay the game as long as possible. We feel that the best possible pick here would be betting on a draw at halftime. River will have to attack, but we sincerely doubt that Gallardo might take such a high risk and go full speed immediately. The odds on that are +130, which is good.

Pick: Draw at halftime +130