Continue Betting Those College Basketball Unders

Get off your high horse if you think unders are boring. Oh, nothing happens. It sucks. Um, wrong. Something does happen. At the end of the game we get paid money for being smart. Here is yet another reason why you should be dying to bet college basketball unders right now.

When Ranked Teams are Underdogs

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We get to witness that interaction firsthand about 90-120 times per year on college basketball courts across America. I am referring, of course, to when ranked teams are listed as underdogs. This occurs most frequently when they are matched up opposite an even higher-ranked team, but also can happen against an unranked foe, typically on the road.

The thought of a ranked team being an underdog just sounded cool to me so I decided to investigate it and see if I could discover any lucrative trends lurking in the data. To my surprise, these matchups happened nearly every night.

I searched only for games in either January or February, but it should not matter too much because ranked teams are rarely underdogs early in the season (except in the occasional early-season tourney matchups). Here are how many Jan-Feb ranked-dog games we have seen since 2010.

Year	# of Games
2018-19	19
2017-18	83
2016-17	107
2015-16	94
2014-15	120
2013-14	125
2012-13	131
2011-12	137
2010-11	132
Total	948

I thought this was going to border on an obscure, fringe system but it turns out there are tons of plays each year. Unfortunately, there is no advantage to be had from betting either for against these ranked dogs. Their numbers this decade continually fluctuate, normally sitting in no-man’s land.

Everyone Expects an Over in a Big Matchup

Apparently ranked underdogs make people think the game will be high scoring. When these contests occur, the under performs very well, historically. At 53.6% since 2010 (a 499-432-12 record), unders are good for a $2,380 profit.

If we get very picky and only bet when the game’s total falls in a certain range, we can increase our profits. Take a look at the under rates by total range in games featuring a ranked dog since 2010.

Range	Under %
< 120	51.6%
120-129.5	56.3%
130-139.5	54.7%
140-149.5	50%
150-159.5	51.6%
160-169.5	63.3%*
>= 170	87.5%**

* sample size of 30 games

** sample size of 8 games

I find these numbers so interesting. When the total is too low (<120), the under hits far less frequently than it does between 120-139.5. It appears that 140-159.5 is the awkward middle ground for this system – not profitable.

When the total gets insanely high, the under begins hitting again. Granted, we only a 38 game sample over 8+ seasons, but winning 68.4% of the time has to be encouraging.

The Final Product: January-February College Basketball Unders Betting System

If we stay away from the totals under 120 and eliminate those between 140-159.5, we are left with our most efficient and profitable system for when a ranked dog is playing.

Betting only the unders in ranked-dog games with totals between 120-139.5 and 160 or greater has yielded a 56.2% win rate since 2010, good for a $4,130 profit and a 7.2% ROI.

Keep this in mind the next time you catch yourself getting ready to complain about a low-scoring defensive battle. See you on top!