Chase the Profits – 4 Hottest NFL Trends

Want more money? So do I. I did a little research on Killersports and dug up some trends that have been making other people money over the past few weeks.

I will lay them out here so we can all take advantage this time around. Try not to get distracted as you dream of how you’ll spend your winnings.

Trend #1 – Overs

The over has hit 56.4% of the time during the past 3 weeks of NFL action (Weeks 7-9). Regular readers know that 52.4% is the magic mark we must hit to be profitable on (-110) wagers.

Restricting your wagering to certain totals will maximize profits. Since the beginning of Week 7, totals in the 40s range (40-49.5) have gone over 59.4% of the time!

Week 10 games with totals in the 40s: LAC@OAK, DET@CHI, BAL@CIN, BUF@CLE, MIA@IND, MIN@DAL, NYG@NYJ, CAR@GB, LAR@PIT, KC@TEN, SEA@SF

Trend #2 – Home Teams

Home teams have won 77.8% SU and 64.0% ATS over the past 2 weeks (Weeks 8&9).

This is a departure from a season-long trend in which road teams have been very profitable (57.5% ATS).

Home teams are not just squeaking by, they are winning convincingly. The average SU margin over the past 2 weeks has been home teams +7.3.

Week 10 home teams: OAK (vs LAC), NYJ (vs NYG), NO (vs ATL), TEN (vs KC), CIN (vs BAL), CLE (vs BUF), TB (vs ARI), CHI (vs DET), IND (vs MIA), GB (vs CAR), PIT (vs LAR), DAL (vs MIN), SF (vs SEA)

Trend #3 – NFC North Teams

The 4 teams in the NFC North started off like gangbusters – beating all the non-division opponents in their path. That sure has changed.

Since the beginning of Week 6, NFC North teams are 5-6 SU in out-of-division games, but an NFL-worst 3-8 ATS in these games.

It is obvious what happened. The Vikings, Packers, Lions, and Bears looked so good early on that oddsmakers gave them the benefit of the doubt in every matchup. The teams cooled down from their hot starts and were then overvalued until the books adjusted. A classic case.

Whomever can accurately handicap the division first – Vegas or the bettors – will be in a good position for some profits.

Week 10 NFC North teams in non-division games: GB (vs CAR), MIN (@ DAL)

Trend #4 – Big Offenses

Yet another betting angle for NFC North teams. When you think NFC North you think black ‘n blue, low-scoring, defensive struggles. This has not been the case in 2019. These are not your grandmother’s NFC North teams.

Since Week 3, games in which NFC North teams play out-of-division have gone over the total 73.7% of the time. The over is 14-5-1.

Kirk Cousins looks very good, Aaron Rodgers looks even better, and the Lions cannot stop anyone on D. Excluding the Chicago Bears from the results makes the numbers even better. Without Chicago, NFC North out-of-division games have gone over 78.6% (11-3-1) of the time.

Week 10 NFC North teams in non-division games: GB (vs CAR), MIN (@ DAL)

It’s a great time of the year to be a sports fan. Happy NFL, CFB, NBA, and CBB betting! See you on top!