Changing of the Guard: AFC Wild Card Weekend Analysis, Handicapping, and Picks

I am going to predict the winners of each of the AFC Wild Card games this Saturday, January 4th. The two matchups are Bills-Texans and Titans-Patriots.

Titans-Patriots is the second game on Saturday, but I will discuss it first because I am devoting the most time to this one. My pick has raised some eyebrows amongst talk with my friends, so I figured I better back up my hunch with plenty of data.

I am about to dive into a deep analysis of the Titans-Patriots matchup and then finish up with a much quicker breakdown of Bills-Texans.

Professional playoff football? Yes please! Let’s get right into it!

Saturday, January 4 – 8:15pm

A couple of years ago, a simple they’re the Patriots, they’ll get it done would have sufficed and been the smart pick. Things are no longer so simple.

After starting 8-0, New England finished the season 4-4. 3 of those losses were at the hands of AFC playoff teams – the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans.

For those who loosely follow the league and are wondering why the media is so down on the Pats when the team finished 12-4, that’s why. They stumbled to the finish line.

The Titans and Patriots did not meet in the 2019 regular season, but they did meet in Week 10 last year. The Titans had a great showing at home and sent the Pats out of Nashville 34-10 losers. New England did not score in the 2nd half.

The Titans are now starting Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Mariota was still playing when these two teams clashed in 2018. There are obviously other differences in personnel, but the core of each team is largely unchanged. We can use last year’s game to give us hints on how each coach might gameplan for this matchup.

Titans-Patriots Game Flow: Defending the Titans

Speaking generally, the most important matchup in this game is the Patriots’ defense against the Titans’ offense. New England cannot score unless their defense is forcing turnovers and setting up the offense with short fields.

The Patriots’ success hinges on their ability to create big plays on D. I will focus most of my attention in this analysis on how I expect the Patriots to defend the many weapons Tennessee possesses.

In my opinion, the most dangerous player on the field for either side is Patriot corner Stephon Gilmore, which is saying something considering Derrick Henry is the 2019 rushing king. Gilmore is widely considered the best CB in the NFL and is a DPOY candidate.

Gilmore leads the NFL in interceptions (6) and passes defensed (20).

Considering the state of the Patriots’ offense (which I’ll hit on below), New England is going to need a couple of huge plays from their defense/special teams if they want to a) win the game and b) cover the 5-point spread.

Some coaches prefer to keep their #1 corner on one side of the field and lock it down the entire game. Not Belichick. He opts to assign Gilmore to the other team’s top wideout. Gilmore lines up all over the field – wide left, in the slot, wide right, even creeping into the box – depending on where his man lines up and the type of route Gilmore anticipates.

In the 2018 Pats-Titans game, Gilmore was on Corey Davis. Davis was easily Mariota’s top target in 2018. Davis finished the season with a team-high 891 yards receiving – more than the team’s 2nd and 3rd  receivers combined.

Putting Gilmore on Davis was the obvious choice and one that, on paper, would shut down the Titans’ passing attack. Stephon Gilmore had one of the worst games of his career that week.

Gilmore was unable to do anything to slow down Davis, who went off for 125 yards receiving on 7 receptions, one of them a touchdown. Fluke? Maybe.

Gilmore is notorious for his meticulous preparation, including keeping a notebook of tendencies and game notes on every receiver he has faced. This was his first ever time covering Corey Davis, and you can only learn so much from film. The Titans probably utilized some tendency-breakers to free up Davis. This would be more difficult the second time around, except …  I doubt we’ll get to see Round 2 of Davis-Gilmore.

The Titans have a new #1 receiver – Ole Miss rookie A.J. Brown. Brown has emerged as the favorite target of Ryan Tannehill late in the season. He has averaged 101 yards and 1 touchdown per game in each of his last 6.

Despite catching just 52 passes on the year, Brown totalled 1,051 yards receiving – 20.2 per reception. That mark is 3rd-highest in the league this year of anyone with double-digit receptions.

I am nearly positive that Gilmore will shadow A.J. Brown this time around. Patriots’ fans have to be at least a little nervous. Brown is a brand new receiver for Gilmore to learn, and it did not work out well the last time he had to do that against Tennessee.

If Gilmore has another bad game, the Titans will win. Gilmore needs to make at least 1 momentum-shifting play.

It is not as if Gilmore is the only good player on the defense. The New England pass rush is no joke. They are tied for 7th in the league in sacks and 8th in QB pressures. 

A good front-4 and a secondary led by Stephon Gilmore has resulted in a NE defense that ranks 1st in the league in QB rating against, pass yards against, and pass touchdowns against.

Throwing deep to Brown will be very difficult on Saturday if New England is consistently in the Tennessee backfield. Tennessee’s pass protection is very bad. The Titans are 30th in the league in sacks allowed this year. It seems unlikely that Tennessee will experience much success in the pass game … unless they can first establish the run.

Derrick Henry did not need to have a huge game last year because the passing attack was working so well. The Titans cannot bank on that kind of production throwing the ball.

In last season’s matchup, New England played 2 Deep Man defense for the majority of snaps, sometimes disguising it as Cover 1 and loading the box.

Establishing the run is easier said than done, but the Titans have just the man for the job. Derrick Henry is a beast this year. His 1,540 rushing yards led the league as did his 16 rushing touchdowns.

The Patriots need Gilmore to lock down A.J. Brown without safety help, because they are going to need all hands on deck to stop Henry. If we assume that Gilmore does his job this time around and that Belichick wins the numbers game in the box and contains Henry, that leaves tight ends Anthony Firkser, Jonnu Smith, and MyCole Pruitt with favorable matchups.

The Patriots have really struggled defending tight ends this year. The Pats’ D has allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends in their past 8 games. In the Dolphins loss in Week 17, guess which position caught the winning TD pass for Miami. Yep, their tight end.

It is typically safety Patrick Chung who covers the crossing and seam routes over the middle of the field when the opponents’ tight ends go out for passes. This is not Chung’s strong suit. He is a sure tackler – much better in run help than pass coverage, especially later in his career.

ProFootballFocus grades Chung an abysmal 54.8 in 2019. It was Chung who got burned in the back of the endzone against Miami in Week 17. He is a liability. Watch, now that I said that, Chung will have 6 picks and force 12 fumbles.

Firkser, Smith, and Pruitt and are not lumbering, uncoordinated brutes. All 3 are more than capable pass catchers – although Pruitt primarily blocks.

The Titans know the combination of Henry in the backfield, Brown out wide, and multiple tight ends on the field is extremely hard to defend, and they take full advantage. Sharp Football Stats keeps track of how often teams align in given formations, which is extremely useful when predicting how teams will gameplan for one another.

Tennessee has come out in 3-TE formations 93 times this season (just over 10% of their plays). The only team who has used this formation as often is Oakland. 3-tight end formations are part of the reason for Corey Davis’ 2019 decline. The Titans like to come out with 3 tight ends, Henry in the backfield, and Brown out wide. No Davis.

The Titans run about two-thirds of the time when playing with 3 tight ends. The tight end receiving game is much more dangerous when Tennessee comes out with just 2 tight ends, something they do on about one-third of all plays. The added success is likely because Davis is back on the field in these formations, drawing coverage away from the tight ends.

When coming out in a 1-back, 2-tight end set, the Titans have thrown 8 touchdowns with 0 picks and have a passer rating of 130.0.

We will surely see a lot of 2 and 3-tight end sets from the Titans in Foxborough on Saturday.

Let’s play the hypothetical game for a second. Belichick stacks the box and limits Derrick Henry. Stephon Gilmore locks down A.J. Brown. Tannehill is under too much heat to allow his tight ends to get downfield. What does Tennessee do?

We have yet to talk about the Titans’ RB2 – Dion Lewis.

Tennessee seldom uses 2-running back sets. They have only showed that look 33 times this year (about 4% of their plays). Titans HC Mike Vrabel is going to have to use some tendency-breakers if he wants to move the ball against New England. I believe putting both Henry and Lewis on the field together is something he will use quite a bit on Saturday.

I noticed in the film of the 2018 meeting between these teams that the Titans actually put 2 backs on the field a couple of times, so I expect Vrabel to make use of this set some more.

Lewis is a great pass-catching back when given the opportunity. When he played for the Patriots in 2015, he was targeted on passes more than he rushed the ball and ended the season with 388 receiving yards – 10.8 yards per catch.

Last season, his first with the Titans, Lewis set new career highs in targets (67), receptions (59), and receiving yards (400). Despite not missing any games this year, Lewis is not being utilized nearly as often – probably because Derrick Henry has blossomed into the best RB in the league.

If there was ever a time to get Lewis back into the gameplan, it is this week against his former team. Slipping Lewis out of the backfield on swing routes will most likely get him 1-on-1 with a corner or linebacker, especially if Belichick’s main defensive strategy is to contain Henry.

The Patriots cannot guard everything. Someone on the Tennessee offense needs to have a big game on Saturday. I believe Gilmore will play well, so I doubt Brown will have the big game. I also doubt it will be Derrick Henry as he will likely see extra attention from Belichick’s defense.

Either Corey Davis, Dion Lewis, or one of the Titan tight ends is going to need to go off on Saturday. Of course, this is all dependent on the line being able to block. If Tennessee has to keep tight ends or backs in for extra protection, the advantage is gone and New England wins.

In my opinion, the whole game revolves around this side of the ball. The Vegas total is at 44.5. This could be a game where the first team to 24 wins.

I do not believe the Patriots will have good success on offense, so stopping Tennessee will be crucial. The Pats ain’t winnin’ no shootout.

State of the Patriots’ Offense

The Patriots were a very high-scoring team through the first 8 weeks of the season – averaging 31.3 points per game. The defense contributed a lot to this effort, seemingly scoring a touchdown every week, but the Patriots’ quarterback … what’s his name again? Oh yeah … Tom Brady. He was good, too.

LA Times

Brady eclipsed 300 yards passing 4 times in the first 8 weeks. His completion percentage was over 66.7% in 6 of those 8 games. His QBR was north of 80 in 4 of those games.

Wanna know his secret? Weak competition. Over the first 8 weeks, the Patriots played a grand total of 1 team that ended the season with a winning record – the Bills.

Their first 8 opponents, in order, were Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets, Buffalo, Washington, the Giants, the Jets, and the Browns. Not exactly the class of the league.

What has happened since the Patriots started playing good teams? They have begun losing. Not close losses were each team plays well, but Tom Brady has a QBR in the 30s and we can’t move the ball to save our lives-type losses.

Here are Brady’s game-by-game numbers since Week 12. Except for a good showing against Buffalo in Week 16, it’s pretty bleak.

Week	Opponent	Game Result	Comp/ATT	Pass YDS	TD / INT	QBR
17	vs MIA	L 27-24	16/29 (55.2%)	221	2 / 1	39.6
16	vs BUF	W 24-17	26/33 (78.8%)	271	1 / 0	90.1
15	@ CIN	W 34-13	15/29 (51.7%)	128	2 / 0	32.2
14	vs KC	L 23-16	19/36 (52.8%)	169	1 / 1	39.9
13	@ HOU	L 28-22	24/47 (51.1%)	326	3 / 1	27.1
12	vs DAL	W 13-9	17/37 (45.9%)	190	1 / 0	40.7
Total	—	—	117/211 (58.2%)	217.5	10 / 3	44.9

Even the most run-oriented teams in the league need decent production out of their quarterback to be successful. A team that relies on pick sixes, scoop-n-scores, and blocked punts as their offense is going to lose a lot of games.

Speaking of the run, New England’s run game seems to be improving as the season moves along. Feature back Sony Michel couldn’t quite make it to 1,000 rushing yards and ends the regular season with 912 and 7 touchdowns. Rex Burkhead totaled 302 rushing yards but is gaining more yards per carry than Michel.

The Patriots have finally come to grips with the fact that Brady can no longer carry the team with his right arm. Belichick has put an emphasis on the ground game over the past several weeks and it has generated on-field results. New England eclipsed 125 yards rushing 4 separate times since Week 13.

This should not scare Tennessee too much as the Titans are very strong defending the run. Allowing just 4.0 yards per carry and 104.5 rushing yards per game, the Titans rank 7th and 12th in the league in these areas.

It is through the air that Tennessee’s defense has holes. They are allowing the 9th-most pass yards per game and the 10-highest opposing completion percentage.

Once the opponent gets in the red zone, Tennessee falls apart. The Titans allow touchdowns on 68.1% of defensive red zone possessions – the second-to-worst mark in the league.

The only saving grace is that New England is equally bad at punching the ball in once they get inside the 20. The Pats score touchdowns on just 50% of their red zone trips, the 7th-lowest percentage in football.

My 2-running back pitch for Tennessee is already being implemented successfully in Bill Belichick’s offense. Running back James White lines up in the backfield and yet is the Patriots’ second-leading receiver behind Julian Edelman. White caught 72 passes for 645 yards and 5 TDs in 2019.

If the getting-more-inaccurate-with-age-Tom Brady is going to have success through the air on Saturday, it is most likely going to be with short throws to White. Tennessee has shown a complete inability to defend backs catching passes – allowing the 3rd-most RB receptions and the 10th-most RB receiving yards of any team.

Brady likes to throw short. Neither of his top-2 targets, Edelman nor White, are deep threats. The Patriots are going to throw short a lot because Tom Brady isn’t as young as he used to be and he doesn’t have any reliable deep threats. The Dolphins are going to throw short to tight ends and (hopefully) backs because the combination of New England’s pass rush and Stephon Gilmore won’t allow for many deep throws.

I see this being a game decided by broken tackles and YAC – yards after the catch. If each side gets the same number of opportunities, the Titans will win. Tennessee is better at playing that style of game because of Derrick Henry. New England will need to create a couple of turnovers.

The line is currently New England -5 (-110) on Bovada. The Pats are at home and they really need a win. In year’s past, we would hammer the NE line in this situation. But … the Pats were at home and could have really used a win in Week 17 against Miami and they couldn’t get it done. The Pats are mortal, man.

The days of giving the Patriots free points simply because they’re the Patriots are over. I do not see much separation between these teams, especially not 5 points worth. If anything, the line should be Pats -3.

I liked the Titans +4.5 when the line first opened and now it’s even better! Convince yourself that the Patriots aren’t invincible and this bet becomes much easier to make. Take Tennessee +5 (-110).

Saturday, January 4 – 4:35pm

Houston Offense vs Buffalo Defense

The most dangerous men in all of Houston are DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson. The Watson to Hopkins connection has been killing opposing secondaries all year. One glance at Nuk’s stats will tell you everything you need to know – 104 receptions, 1,165 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

If you take Hopkins out of the equation, Watson can still hurt you. The fleet-of-foot-QB has rushed for 413 yards this season – more than a lot of running backs. Watson has other pass-catching options, too. 

RB Duke Johnson is a big-time receiving threat out of the backfield with 44 receptions for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2019. This bodes especially well for Houston against Buffalo as the Bills allow the 14th-most receiving yards to backs – the one chink in their otherwise flawless pass coverage armor.

Houston TE Darren Fells cannot be ignored, especially in the red zone. Fells has caught 34 passes this year for 341 yards and 7 touchdowns – as many as Hopkins. To illustrate how important Fells is to the Texans’ offense, consider that Houston is 5-0 in games where Fells has scored a touchdown.

On the ground, Houston RB Carlos Hyde provides the much-needed balance to Watson’s passing attack. Hyde rushed for 1,070 yards on 4.4 yards per carry in 2019, scoring 6 touchdowns.

As great as the Texans’ offense is, the Bills defense matches up quite nicely. You ever heard of Tre’Davious White? Well, Texans fans are about to. If Stephon Gilmore isn’t the best corner in the league, Tre’Davious White is.

White is tied for the league-lead (with Gilmore) with 6 picks. White also defensed 17 passes this year while totalling 5 more tackles than Gilmore. It will be White’s job to smother Hopkins and force Watson to check down.

Easier said than done, yeah, but White has been putting receivers on islands all year. Opposing quarterbacks have a terrible 45.1 passer rating this year when throwing to the receiver White is covering.

EDIT: White hinted in an interview that he might not shadow Hopkins the entire game and that the Bills would rather cover Hopkins with whichever corner is closest to where Hopkins lines up. Either way, I’m not too concerned about Hopkins totaling game-breaking amounts of yards because Will Fuller is likely out and the Texans CB2 for Saturday, Kevin Johnson, grades highly on PFF (73.2).

You might be thinking the Texans still have the advantage. They are going to need to throw short and the Bills struggle defending the short pass. Perfect, right? Not so fast.

The Texans’ #2 WR, the speedy Will Fuller, is a game-time decision with a bad groin. The latest reports speculate he will not play.on Saturday. This is huge. Without Fuller to create verticality in the passing game the Texans will have to rely on Hopkins beating White if they want to throw deep, which isn’t a good bet to make.

Houston can forget about getting Darren Fells a lot of volume. The Bills allow the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to tight ends in the league. The Texans will have to pick their spots with Fells, who is mainly a red zone target anyway.

With Fuller out, the Bills can afford to pay more attention to both running backs catching passes and Watson scrambling. You know these two areas have to be a key focus of Buffalo’s defensive gameplan this week.

The Texans are adept at picking up first downs. They own the 6th-highest completion percentage in the league and Watson can always pick up a few yards on the ground. Even if Houston can dink and dunk against the Bills to gain yards there is no guarantee first downs will translate to points. 

Getting to the red zone against the Buffalo defense may prove easier for Houston than for most opponents, but punching it in once there will not be easy. Buffalo allows the 2nd-fewest points per game in the league. This is no fluke. They’ve earned it. They have no significant weaknesses defensively.

Buffalo Offense vs Houston Defense

Houston is the exact opposite defensively. They are the worst defensive team in the red zone in the NFL.

The Texans will never pull away with only field goals and Buffalo may sneak an extra touchdown or two in there with some trickery they’ve saved for special moments such as these.

While the passing game in Buffalo is far from prolific, any quarterback is good when he isn’t pressured. The Texans rank 31st in QB pressures and 26th in sacks. I do not see Josh Allen having to hurry many of his throws.

But wait! J.J. Watt is coming back! This changes everything, right? I don’t think so. Watt has been out for 9 weeks. At a position like D end where maximum effort is exerted every play, players can’t just sit out for that long and come back 100%.

One of two scenarios will occur. 1) The Texans give Watt plenty of rest and only use him on key plays, reducing his impact on the game. 2) Watt is in there every play and is gassed by the 3rd quarter, reducing his impact on the game.

Even with Watt at 100% before the injury, the Texans’ pass rush was average at best. You are going to see a calm Josh Allen have plenty of time to hit receivers on Saturday. The Bills’ passing game could take off.

If it doesn’t, no biggie. The Bills have RB Devin Singletary in the backfield. Singletary has really found his stride lately and HC Sean McDermott is learning how to best utilize him. If Buffalo can’t move the ball through the air, the combination of Singletary and Allen can still move the ball using their legs.

Remember, Allen runs a lot. He has 510 rush yards and 9 rush TDs on the year. A couple of weeks ago, I called Allen “the best Lamar Jackson impersonator in the league”. The Texans have not shown they can stop a running quarterback, allowing the 26th-most yards to opposing QBs this year.

While I don’t believe J.J. Watt will make a huge difference, there is a Bills’ newcomer who could – WR Duke Williams.

Williams started in a meaningless Week 17 game and racked up 108 receiving yards on 6 catches. At 6’3 225, many consider Williams to be the best blocking receiver on the Bills roster. If Williams plays a significant amount of snaps, Buffalo will likely pick up a few extra first downs and maybe have an easier time scoring in the red zone.

The current line on Bovada for this game is Buffalo +3 (-125). There is obviously heavy action on the Bills but the books don’t want to move the line off a key number so they just adjusted the juice.

I do like the Bills +3, but not at the price of (-125). You can get the Bills ML at (+125), but then you lose your safety net of the 3-point cushion.

Personally, I am not going to bet this game because I missed out on the (-110) line and (-125) is too steep for my liking. If I had to place a bet, I would take the Bills SU at (+125) because there are lots of small factors that give Buffalo tiny advantages here and there. These add up.

If the juice miraculously drops back to 10%, I’m jumping on Buffalo +3.

If you’ve read my NFL playoff betting guide, you know that 5-seeds have performed poorly as of late. I do like Buffalo’s chances of pulling the minor upset, but I’m not going to bet the short line or against the data.

See you on top!