CFB Conference Championship Odds: Wake vs Pitt ATS and OSU vs Baylor Total Picks

There will never be a truly undisputed national champion of college football, since a single season just isn’t a scenario in which every College Football Playoff hopeful goes through a similar amount of adversity. If somehow, the FBS Top 25 teams could stay together for 5 to 10 years apiece and face 50-100 weekly challenges, the sport’s eternal pitfalls (such as severe injuries to key players, coaching upheaval, or scandals) would eventually strike every program to some extent, leaving only the best, toughest, and bravest roster to emerge with the W/L crown.

But while we may not get to see Georgia, Michigan, or Oklahoma State climb identical types of hurdles in the 2021-22 postseason, fate has in fact conspired to throw a particular kind of wrench in several teams’ championship bids. Ranked teams who could find favorable match-ups in major bowl games or even the CFP semifinals must first fight through contests with awkward, inconvenient rivals on the other sideline.

#1 Georgia is a better team than #16 Houston. But the Cincinnati Bearcats know how they could upset UGA in a playoff game, by making the Dawgs drive on needles-and-pins and scoring just enough points to win. Cincinnati won’t have such an obvious game plan against the Houston Cougars, a red-hot finesse team that could force Cincy’s blue-collar offense into must-score situations as early as the 2nd quarter.

Making the pressure even worse for Cincinnati, a squeaky 38-37 win over Houston probably won’t be enough to earn a top-4 berth from the College Football Playoff committee. It’s either whip UH or play in a bowl.

Pitt faces a similar conundrum on Saturday night against Wake Forest. Pittsburgh’s receivers will streak up the field for touchdowns as usual, but the Panthers don’t have their traditionally iron-fisted defense to protect a lead in an ACC Championship Game with a sky-high O/U line. Wake even got into a shoot-out with Army and won it – the Demon Deacons will be happy to try for 60 points if that’s what it takes to grasp Cinderella hardware.

But before we forecast the final prime-time kickoff before bowl season, let’s take a chronological look at 9 other FBS conference championship games taking place over a celebrated 30+ hours of pigskin.

FBS Championship Weekend Odds, Lines, and Predictions

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UTSA Roadrunners (Friday, December 3rd)

The momentum that UTSA carried throughout November is missing for C-USA’s nearly unbeaten leaders as December begins. Texas-San Antonio was out-played and beaten 45-23 by conference rival North Texas in Week 13, though the Roadrunners’ use of 3 quarterbacks in the contest illustrates that UTSA was looking ahead to this Friday and WKU.

Western Kentucky’s (+102) moneyline belies the Hilltoppers’ 8-4 record thanks to a terrific season-closing stretch in which WKU won 7 straight games by 15 or more points. 2 of the school’s 4 losses have come against Big Ten opponents.

Recommended bet: Western Kentucky (+1) or (+102)

Oregon Ducks vs Utah Utes (Friday, December 3rd)

Former head coach Chip Kelly’s Oregon Ducks never looked like a more balanced, complete team than Oregon in 2021. No need for perpetual 2nd-half scoring binges in this era! Mario Cristobal’s teams know how to grab a lead and hold on to it.

Oregon led talented Oregon State from wire to wire on Saturday to move to 10-2. Furthermore, the Ducks won’t be rated down for a 35-28 loss at Ohio State based on OSU’s 2-touchdown loss at Michigan in Week 13, since even the most cynical FBS pundits know there’s a big difference between a snowy day in Ann Arbor and a September kickoff in Columbus.

There is just 1 problem for Oregon – the Ducks couldn’t have ordered a worse opponent for Friday’s Pac-12 Championship Game in Nevada. Utah (-3.5) arrives in the title game after knocking Oregon out of College Football Playoff contention on November 20th, holding the flashy Ducks to less than 300 yards of total offense in a 38-7 pounding. Utah deserves its favored status in Las Vegas (and at Las Vegas sportsbooks) as a potential 11-win brand. Utah QB Cameron “Stock” Rising hasn’t been all that lucrative throwing against Oregon’s secondary, though, making Sin City’s O/U (60.5) point-total forecast look more than a tad inflated.

Recommended bet: Under (60.5)

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Kent State Golden Flashes (Saturday, December 4)

The MAC Championship Game will be played at Ford Field for an 18th-consecutive year on Saturday. The game’s cozy Motown setting isn’t the only reason why Northern Illinois vs Kent State could become Championship Weekend’s “Point-Total Bowl.”

The Golden Flashes and Huskies already met for a regular-season game on November 3rd, and combined for nearly 100 points in Kent State’s 52-47 win. Veteran NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi led a heroic 4th-quarter comeback bid and finished with 523 passing yards, but couldn’t overcome Kent State’s huge rushing game against NIU’s porous defense.

FanDuel’s current O/U line of (71.5) isn’t hyperbolic when you consider QB Brett Gabbert’s hefty 9.0 YPA, or Northern Illinois’ uncanny ability to keep-up with high-powered opponents.

Recommended bet: Over (71.5)

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Baylor Bears (Saturday, December 4)

The OSU Cowboys’ late-season run has been the finest of Mike Gundy’s storied career in Stillwater. OSU began the 2021 campaign barely scraping by opponents like Tulsa and Missouri State, eventually losing to a tough Iowa State team to tumble in the rankings. Gundy’s squad improved with its strength-of-schedule to mount another winning streak, which culminated in a 37-33 win over Oklahoma on Rivalry Weekend. Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders put Oklahoma State on his back despite throwing 2 picks in the contest. The challenge of Baylor’s defense has FanDuel’s O/U line for the Big 12 Championship Game flying low to the ground at (46.5) total points with OSU as a (5.5) favorite.

Recommended bet: Over (46.5)

Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs (Saturday, December 4)

Rashaad Penny, the former SDSU tailback, has been among the few bright spots for the Seattle Seahawks this season, and the 2021-22 San Diego State Aztecs are among the few bright spots in this year’s Mountain West. The 11-1 Aztecs are the only team in the MWC with less than 3 losses on the season, and 1 of just 4 Mountain West teams with winning records as hosts. (Even the Boise Blue finished 3-3 at iconic Albertsons Stadium.) Utah State, a modest (+5.5) point-spread underdog vs SDSU in Saturday afternoon’s MWC Championship Game, has been dreadfully inconsistent in 2021 despite a record of 6-0 when on the road.

Recommended bet: San Diego State (-5.5)

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (Saturday, December 4)

You wouldn’t be entirely wrong to think that the Sun Belt doesn’t host neutral-site conference title games because the Sun Belt Conference is cheap. In fact, Sun Belt representative Coastal Carolina had to practically reach the College Football Playoff before the conference revamped a poor official database.

But there’s also an argument that home-field advantage serves to reward top seeds for well-played regular seasons, and can certainly help to boost hometown buzz for a climactic kickoff. Hype or no hype, the Sun Belt could produce a gem this Saturday, as the ranked Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns play host to the popular App State Mountaineers to determine who comes back with the league title.

Appalachian State is (-2.5) favorite against the spread to win on Saturday. Louisiana faces head-coaching upheaval in the postseason as Billy Napier departs for The Swamp, giving the scrappy Mountaineers a chance to field the more focused and well-prepared roster in yet another decisive scrum.

Recommended bet: Appalachian State (-2.5)

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, December, 4)

Alabama faces a far more dangerous SEC Championship Game than expected. Yes, the Crimson Tide pulled off a stunning OT victory in the Iron Bowl, fighting off the burly Auburn Tigers after 3 quarters of frustration on offense. But if Nick Saban’s team had won convincingly, Alabama fans could have hoped the Georgia vs Alabama outcome wouldn’t necessarily be a “1-week season” for all the marbles. Instead, with national #3 Cincinnati having passed Alabama in the AP Poll, signs show that anything short of another OT bout – or a victory – could be curtains for ‘Bama’s CFP bid.

UGA has allowed less than 10 touchdowns on the season, an historically great mark that ranks Dawg defenders with legendary groups like the 1987 Miami Hurricanes, the 1979 Crimson Tide, and Fordham’s fabled “7 Blocks of Granite,” for which even Vince Lombardi rode the bench. No wonder Alabama is giving (+6.5) for Saturday’s game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, as gamblers just watched the Tide fail to produce a lead on an Auburn defense that isn’t considered nearly as powerful as UGA.

Saban’s coaching staff cannot be overlooked, as the Tide has undoubtedly saved up a few special calls and formations just for the kickoff in Atlanta. Offensive coordinator Bill O’ Brien may even “script” an opening 12-15 plays for QB Bryce Young just to keep UGA’s defense off-balance. If Georgia is tasked to respond in kind after an early Alabama touchdown, the favored Bulldogs may unleash the same pass offense that punished Arkansas, Auburn, and UK in succession. All told, an early (50.5) O/U total could rise as bettors contemplate a potentially thrilling SEC war.

Recommended bet: Over (50.5)

Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats (Saturday, December 4)

It’s almost always harder to beat an SEC division champion than an AAC division champion. Yet ironically, the ’21 Cincinnati Bearcats could match-up extremely well with a defense-oriented team like Alabama or Georgia compared to what awaits them on Saturday.

24 points could be enough to beat the Crimson Tide or Bulldogs, reducing the pressure on Cincinnati’s offensive backfield. Houston may have to be out-scored in a wild game in order to lose.

Since falling to TTU in a shaky opener, the Houston Cougars (+10.5) have gone unbeaten and untouched. QB Clayton Tune is reaping the rewards of patient development and a speedy supporting cast. If point-total lines on the AAC Championship Game aren’t offered above (53.5) points, it’s only because of host Cincinnati’s 3rd-overall ranked defense. Cincy’s season of destiny makes Houston an iffy moneyline pick at (+310), but realistically, the Cougars are only underdogs by single-digits.

Recommended bet: Houston (+10.5)

Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday, December, 4)

Cincinnati’s double-digit point spread for Saturday is comparable to the Michigan Wolverines‘ optimistic (-10.5) betting line, in that it seems to defy the team’s typical style of victory against elite opponents. “NFL style” Over/Under lines of (43.5) points or lower are being wagered on in anticipation of a slow-paced, grudging battle in the Big Ten Championship Game, making a (-10.5) spread seem even more inflated given how precious TDs may be.

The Iowa Hawkeyes’ run for a Power-5 title looks a lot like Pittsburgh’s ill-fated bid at the end of last decade. Iowa’s recent performances have been shaky against mid-tier conference foes, making the underdogs a bad bet ATS on Saturday. Better chances can be found wagering against the O/U line, which doesn’t take into account how many dangerous rushers will be carrying the ball even if the teams take turns playing safe on 3rd down and long.

If a Michigan game can produce 70 points on an icy day at UM, then 45+ isn’t an outlandish forecast for a domed kickoff in Indy.

Recommended bet: Over (43.5)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Pittsburgh Panthers (Saturday, December 4)

The Pitt Panthers couldn’t get it done last time the program made it this far. Can Pittsburgh overcome demons of the past to win the ACC Championship Game this year?

Wake Forest (+2.5) may actually be the more-underestimated side thanks to FBS history. Wake hasn’t won its ACC division since 2006, when the Demon Deacons defeated Georgia Tech to earn a conference title. Dave Clawson’s team has proven itself at every opportunity in 2021, except when losing to a rejuvenated Clemson in a sloppy November game at Death Valley.

Pittsburgh’s offense is lethal and the Panther defense was solid enough in midseason, but the latter unit has become as porous as Wake’s since then, making QB Brennan Armstrong of Virginia look like Peyton Manning in an anxious 48-38 win in Week 12.

Recommended bet: Wake Forest (+2.5) or (+124)