Can the Heat Overcome This? Miami Had Lost Game 3 by the Second Quarter

When was the last time the city of Miami hosted an NBA Finals game? 2020 you say? Wrong! The 2020 postseason was played in a bubble. Miami has not hosted a Finals game since the 2014 season in the LeBron James era.

After splitting the first 2 road games in Denver, the Heat returned home having stolen home-court advantage in what became a 5-game series. This was uncharted territory for both sides.

For the Nuggets, this series marked the first time all postseason they had not gone up 2-0. For the Heat, this was the first series in which they didn’t pull off a Game 1 road upset win.

After opening the series as massive favorites, the Nuggets were now embroiled in dogfight and would need to salvage a game on the road just to return home tied 2-2. Game 3 was the most highly anticipated game of the Finals, certainly the most important.

In NBA Finals history, teams who’ve won Game 3 in a series tied 1-1 are 32-8 in their quest for an NBA championship. That’s 80%. The pendulum was pretty much right in the middle following Game 2, but it would swing heavily to one side or the other depending on who won Game 3.

The First Quarter Told Us a Lot About the Gameplans for Miami and Denver

Game 3 began with both sets of star players looking to score early. The Denver duo of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic took 16 shots in the 1st quarter of game 3 while Miami’s Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo took 15.

Max Strus put his mark on the first quarter of Game 2 by sinking 4 three-pointers. He facilitated the Heat offense in Game 3 by dishing out assists on 4 of Miami’s first 5 baskets of the game.

The first quarter was an entertaining one with the Heat taking an early lead and the Nuggets coming back to tie the game due to a Heat field-goal drought that lingered on for 5:29 late in the quarter.

Butler and Bam combined to shoot 6-15 (40%) in the first quarter – the root of Miami’s early offensive problems. Although Miami’s stars weren’t getting their shots to fall, the score was tied through 12 minutes. Miami’s role players were actively involved in the game. It felt like this was one Miami had a chance to win.

Miami’s Role Players Tried to Bail Out Bam and Butler in First Quarter

Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra made the decision to start Kevin Levin in Game 2 back in Denver and it worked out beautifully, so he did it again in Game 3. Love is now 34 years old, but still has a lot of game in him and plays his role perfectly for this Heat team. That role is to hit three-pointers, make pinpoint outlet passes, and then to harass Aaron Gordon on the defensive end.

Love rewarded Spoelstra’s faith by hitting a 3 and then drawing a charge against KCP, all in the first 6 minutes of the ball game. It’s very fitting that Caldwell-Pope was called for this charge because it really accentuated the difference in the level of play between some of the Heat role players and the Nuggets role players in this series.

KCP gave away a lot of free points in Game 2 when he fouled Miami three-point shooters on two separate occasions. Here, he is seen barreling into the paint out of control in transition and giving away another Nuggets possession.

The allure of this Nuggets team, and the reason they were favored so heavily by the oddsmakers, is their depth. Denver has so many different guys who can hurt you, but the Heat have looked like the deeper team thus far in the series while the Nuggets have had to rely almost exclusively on their two stars – Jokic and Murray.

Later in the first quarter, another of Miami’s role players – Cody Zeller – drew this charge on Jokic (with a little bit of acting).

 

Zeller played for less than 5 minutes in this contest, but made his presence felt by forcing the turnover from Denver’s best player.

Bam Wasted Some Possessions in the First Quarter with His Shot Selection

Bam Adebayo is one of the biggest guys on the Miami roster, and for some reason he seems fixated on shooting mid-range jumpers – widely considered to be a poor shot even for good shooters, let alone a center.

Above, we discussed how Butler and Bam combined for 9 missed shots in the first quarter of Game 3 and were just 40% from the field together in that quarter. Three of Bam’s misses were on mid-range Js. This was the first one. Note how Jokic gives Bam plenty of room to launch because he’s read the scouting report and knows it’s a win for Denver when Bam decides to pull up from 17 feet out.

Early on in Game 3, the Heat grabbed a lead and momentarily caught Denver playing slugging basketball out of the gates. Miami desperately needed to put together a strong first quarter like they did in Game 2 but instead relinquished the lead by the end of the period. From the 7:49 mark in the 1st quarter until the end of the game, this one was all Denver.

The Heat’s largest mistake was not building a bigger lead early before Denver had settled in. This could have changed the entire complexion of the ball game and rewritten history. Instead, the Nuggets never felt the walls closing in on them. They were anle to continue playing their game and easily handled Miami in the second half.

Jamal Murray’s Scoring Prevented Miami From Pulling Away in the First Half

This was the city of Miami’s first NBA Finals game in almost 9 years. This Heat crowd was loud and they were ready to explode early. There were several occasions in the first half in which the Heat started to go on a little bit of a run but they were quieted by a timely jumper from Murray.

Take this example from the middle of the second quarter. The Heat forced a turnover, got a sweet layup from Caleb Martin in transition to go up 4, and were then playing an excellent defensive possession on the other end. A stop and subsequent bucket by Miami would’ve blown the roof off the place. Instead, Murray, calmly drained an off-balance triple and quieted the crowd.

When we said that it was all Murray and Jokic early, we weren’t kidding. Those two either scored or assisted on 40 of Denver’s first 45 points of Game 3.

This was hardly the style of basketball we’d seen them play all year long. They have always been a team to share the basketball and get production from everyone.

The Heat made an adjustment in Game 2 to force Jokic to shoot more but the Nuggets figured out a way to win in that manner in Game 3.

Jokic and Murray put the Nuggets on their back to pull away in the second half, but things may not have unfolded that way had the Heat stars (Butler and Bam) pulled their weight in the first two quarters.

This could have been a very different game with better offensive execution (and shot selection) from Miami and maybe one less dagger from Jamal Murray.