Buffalo is the San Diego State of the NFL

If I blindfolded you, put you on a plane, told you the destination was either Buffalo or San Diego, and made you guess which city you were in immediately upon arrival – you would be able to tell instantly, right?

Buffalo is 23 degrees and cloudy today. San Diego is 70 degrees and sunny.

There are plenty of differences between Buffalo and San Diego … but not from a handicapping perspective.

For example, both teams are exceeding expectations and having very good seasons. The Bills were projected for 7.5 wins in the preseason but are currently 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS.

San Diego State was projected for 8 wins this season but are poised to surpass that number. The Aztecs are currently 7-2 and winners in 4 of their last 5.

The parallels between these two teams run deeper than their records and provide some interesting betting opportunities in both leagues. Hear me out.

Super Low Buffalo Totals are Still Too High

Of all 32 teams in the National Football League, the Bills have the lowest Vegas totals.

Games that involve Buffalo have an average total of 40.4 this year. If this number holds, it would be the lowest mark since the Jaguars averaged a 40.3 total in 2017.

Buffalo is not expected to score a lot of points. Vegas knows it. Bettors know it. It’s the norm. 40.4 is still too much to ask of Buffalo, though, because the under is 7-2 in Bills games this year.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Buffalo totals creep into the high 30s until the Bills’ offense (and the opposing offenses) start pulling their weight.

Sports betting is all about pouncing on opportunities. There has gotta be a 40-point game in Buffalo soon, right? I am going to watch the Bills’ totals like a hawk over the next week or two and swoop in if they get ridiculously low.

Last year, only 78 regular season games finished with a combined score below 40 points. There are 256 games in an NFL season. This means only 30.4% of games finished that low. The over is a good bet.

Same Story in San Diego

You are probably thinking, what does this have to do with San Diego? It has everything to do with San Diego!

Transition your mindset to the college game where teams are routinely putting up 30 and 40 points. Totals are much higher in college … except in San Diego.

Of all the FBS teams this season, San Diego State has seen the 2nd-lowest totals (behind only those bums at Michigan State).

The average total in San Diego State games this year is 44.6. To put this in perspective – Ohio St, Alabama, Oklahoma, and SMU are averaging more points per game on their own!

Just like Buffalo, ridiculously low totals are not stopping games from going under. The under is 8-1 in San Diego St games this year.

If you are looking for an excuse to bet overs, you have found it. Both the Bills and Aztecs are successful football teams whose good defenses and underwhelming offenses keep the score low.

As we move deeper into the season playbooks open up, quarterbacks become more comfortable, and offense tends to pick up. I’ll say it again, these are good football teams. I am going to bet some SDST and BUF overs in the near future to take advantage of the unsustainable amount of unders we have seen lately.

See you on top!