Breaking Down Playoff Chances for All 30 MLB Teams

The 2020 MLB season began 8 weeks ago but it’s already time to talk playoffs. In a shortened season fans have been looking forward to the postseason since we started in late July. Here is a little taste of postseason baseball to whet your appetite.

Sunday marks the start of the final week of the 2020 MLB regular season. It’s time to scope out some playoff races.

I cite FiveThirtyEight often in this piece. Their MLB Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each MLB team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the postseason.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason baseball – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 30 MLB teams are still mathematically alive and will be getting a break down. Let’s go!

Los Angeles Dodgers 35-15

Remaining Schedule: 4@COL, 3vsOAK, 3vsLAA

What They Do Well: They rake. The Dodgers lead the MLB in homeruns (93) and are tied for 6th in on-base percentage (.334). The Dodgers also pitch extremely well. Their team ERA of 2.98 leads baseball. Dodgers’ pitchers allow the 2nd-fewest walks in baseball.

What They Do Poorly: The Dodgers aren’t a good defensive team. Their team Def of -8.3 ranks 26th in the MLB. Defense is one aspect of baseball in which MLB teams can get away with being weak. A Def of -10 costs a team roughly 1 win. The Dodgers might be 1 game better with better defense.

538 Playoff %: Clinched

Path to Postseason: The Dodgers have already clinched a postseason berth and are an overwhelming favorite for top seed in the National League. FiveThirtyEight gives LA a 28% chance of winning the 2020 World Series.

New York Yankees 28-21

Remaining Schedule: 1vsTOR, 3@BOS, 4@TOR, 3vsMIA

What They Do Well: The Yankees team ERA of 4.10 ranks 10th in the MLB. Yankee pitchers rack up 9.55 K/9 – the 5th-best mark in the Majors. Not only can the Yankees blow it past their opponents, but they limit the walks. Yankee pitchers average 3.09 walks per 9 – the 7th-lowest rate in baseball.

New York mashes, too. Their .339 team on-base percentage is tied for 3rd in the Majors. The Yankees have smacked 82 dingers – 4th in the Majors. You can’t pitch to them, you also can’t pitch around them. New York is tied for the highest walk rate in the MLB at 11.2%.

What They Do Poorly: The Yankees don’t run a ton. They are middle of the pack in steals. I’m nitpicking to find flaws, here. There aren’t many.

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: The Yankees would be the 5 seed if play ended today. The Bombers are 3 games behind Tampa for first place in the AL East. Catching the Rays would improve the Yankees seeding, but they are in a good spot at second place. The current 9-seed is 6 games behind New York meaning the Yankees would need to lose 6 games in the standings with 11 left in order to miss the playoffs.

Houston Astros 24-25

Remaining Schedule: 1vsTEX, 3vsARI, 3@SEA, 4vsTEX

What They Do Well: Cheating.

What They Do Poorly: Hitting for power. Houston ranks 22nd in the MLB in homeruns (57) and 19th in the league in ISO (.168). 

538 Playoff %: 96%

Path to Postseason: The Astros picked the right division to play in. A 24-25 record is not good, but it nearly guarantees Houston a spot this year because only the A’s are better in the AL West. The Astros are 6.5 back of Oakland for first place, so second is the Astros’ most likely way in. Houston needs to avoid being run down by the Mariners who are just 2 games back. Houston will almost certainly be the 6 seed.

Tampa Bay Rays 31-18

Remaining Schedule: 1@BAL, 1vsBAL, 3@BAL, 3@NYM, 3vsPHI

What They Do Well: Offense. The Rays rank top-10 in runs scored, ISO, base on balls, steals, and on-base percentage. Also pitching. The Rays rank top-10 in K/9, BB/9, ERA, and WHIP.

What They Do Poorly: Hit for average. Tampa ranks 19th in the MLB in batting average (.240).

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: The Rays have surprised some (but not the Wagerbop Simulation) by playing themselves to a 3-game lead in the formidable AL East. Tampa is neck and neck with the White Sox, Indians, and A’s for the 1 seed in the American League.

Minnesota Twins 31-20

Remaining Schedule: 3@CHC, 2vsDET, 3vsCIN

What They Do Well: Win at home. The Twins are 21-5 at Target Field this year, easily the best home-field record in baseball. 

What They Do Poorly: Steal bases. Minnesota ranks dead last in stolen bases (11).

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: The White Sox have won 8 of 10 and now control the AL Central. Minnesota is 3 games back of first place but have a comfortable lead over Cleveland (3.5 games) and are likely to hold onto second. The Twins are currently the best 2nd-place team in the American League by 1.5 games. If the season ended today they’d be the 4 seed.

Oakland Athletics 31-19

Remaining Schedule: 3vsSF, 3@LAD, 2vsSEA, 2@SEA

What They Do Well: Draw their walks. Oakland ranks 4th in BB rate (10.9%) which helps their on-base percentage reach .324 (16th in the MLB) despite hitting just .227 as a team (25th in the MLB). Also pitching, the A’s team ERA is the 3rd-lowest in the league (3.43).

What They Do Poorly: Get strikeouts. Oakland pitching ranks 20th in the MLB in K/9.

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: Oakland is taking advantage of a down year by Houston to control the AL West. Up 6.5 games over the ‘Stros, Oakland is right there with Tampa and Chicago as the league’s top teams. The A’s hold the largest first-place lead of any team in baseball. They are nearly guaranteed to be a top-3 seed in the American League this postseason.

Atlanta Braves 29-21

Remaining Schedule: 3@NYM, 4vsMIA, 3vsBOS

What They Do Well: They rake. Atlanta leads baseball with a .490 slugging percentage. The Braves are second in baseball with a .270 team batting average. Atlanta is also second in on-base percentage at .348.

What They Do Poorly: Atlanta’s pitching isn’t great. The Braves are 22nd in the league in K/9 (8.63) and 17th in ERA (4.66).

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: Atlanta is 3 games up on the Marlins and 4 up on the 3rd-place Phillies. The fact Miami still holds a winning record with less than 15 games to go is shocking. Most Braves fans are more scared of the Phillies getting hot than the Marlins. The Braves don’t have much of a chance to catch the Dodgers for the 1 seed in the National League. Atlanta is neck and neck with the Cubbies for the 2 seed.

San Diego Padres 32-19

Remaining Schedule: 3@SEA, 3vsLAA, 2vsSF, 2@SF

What They Do Well: Fernando Tatis.

What They Do Poorly: Be in the same division as the Dodgers.

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: The Padres hold the second-best record in the National League. Unfortunately, the Friars share a division with the best team in the league – LA. The Padres are 3.5 games back of the Dodgers. There is a slim chance they overtake LA for the National League’s 1 seed. Otherwise, the Padres are a lock for the 4 seed.

Chicago Cubs 30-20

Remaining Schedule: 3vsMIN, 4@PIT, 3@CWS

What They Do Well: Play in a weak division.

What They Do Poorly: Not much offense on the Northside. The Cubbies are 24th in the MLB in slugging percentage (.394) and 27th in team batting average (.226). 

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: Chicago benefits from playing in a very weak Central division. As the only team above .500 in the division, the Cubs are 5.5 games ahead of second-place Cincinnati. The lead should be pretty safe, meaning Chicago is very likely to be the 2 or 3 seed in the National League.

Cleveland Indians 26-23

Remaining Schedule: 4@DET, 4vsCWS, 3vsPIT

What They Do Well: Beat up on Detroit, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. 14 of the Indians’ 26 wins (that’s 54% of their wins) have come against these three opponents.

What They Do Poorly: Hit. Cleveland hitters rank 24th in team batting average (.227) and 28th in team ISO (.138).

538 Playoff %: 97%

Path to Postseason: The Indians hold the 6th-best record in the American League but are stuck in 3rd in the AL Central. The White Sox are 6 up on Cleveland and Minnesota is in 2nd – just 3 ahead of Cleveland. The Indians are currently 2 games up on the Blue Jays for the 7 seed. Behind Toronto, the next closest team is Seattle at 5 games back of the Indians. Cleveland is nearly guaranteed a spot in the bracket but may scoot up as high as 4th if they can pass Minnesota.

Chicago White Sox 32-17

Remaining Schedule: 3@CIN, 4@CLE, 3vsCHC

What They Do Well: Tim Anderson.

What They Do Poorly: Not much as of late.

538 Playoff %: >99%

Path to Postseason: The White Sox sat in 3rd place in the AL Central for the beginning of the season but have now ascended to the top. Chicago is right there with both Oakland and Tampa in the fight for the American League’s 1 seed. The Sox are 3 up on Minnesota in the division with 11 to go. Assuming Chicago remains atop the Central, the Sox are guaranteed a top-3 seed. Even if the Twins do overtake the Sox – I don’t see Chicago falling lower than 4th.

Washington Nationals 18-29

Remaining Schedule: 5@MIA, 4vsWAS, 4vsNYM

What They Do Well: Lose. Be worse than the Marlins.

What They Do Poorly: Recover from their Super Bowl hangover. 

538 Playoff %: 2%

Path to Postseason: Not only must the Nationals embark on an epic winning streak but they need loads of help to reach the postseason. The Nats are 5.5 games back of 8-seed Cincy with 11 to go. It’s not a straight shot, though. The Mets, Giants, Brewers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all have position on Washington in the Wild Card race.

New York Mets 22-27

Remaining Schedule: 1@PHI, 3vsATL, 3vsTB, 4@WAS

What They Do Well: Disappoint everybody in Queens.

What They Do Poorly: Stay afloat despite having a talented roster.

538 Playoff %: 12%

Path to Postseason: The Mets’ prospects are slightly better than Washington’s – but not by much. The Mets sit in 4th place in the AL East. New York is just 1.5 games back of 8-seed Cincy but both the Giants and Brewers are above the Mets in the standings. The Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 games. New York will need to win at least 10 of their final 13 games to have a good shot at the 8 seed.

Cincinnati Reds 25-26

Remaining Schedule: 3vsCWS, 3vsMIL, 3@MIN

What They Do Well: Hit for power. The Reds are 7th in the league in team ISO (.191) and have hit the 7th-most dingers in baseball (79).

What They Do Poorly: Hit for average. The Reds rank last in the MLB with a team batting average of .213. 

538 Playoff %: 56%

Path to Postseason: The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 and have played their way into the National League’s top 8. There are several teams hot on Cincy’s heels. The Giants and Brewers are both just 1 game back of the Reds. The Mets are 1.5 games back and the Rockies are 3 back. If Cincinnati keeps winning – they’re in! The Reds could easily move all the way up to the 5 seed. Cincy is just 2 games back of the current 5 seed Miami.

St. Louis Cardinals 22-23

Remaining Schedule: 3@PIT, 2vsPIT, 3@KC, 4@STL, 1vsSTL

What They Do Well: Yadier Molina.

What They Do Poorly: Steal bases. St. Louis ranks 29th in the MLB with 14 steals.

538 Playoff %: 71%

Path to Postseason: I was not high on St. Louis before the 2020 MLB season began but they have proved me wrong. The Cards have slid up into the 2-spot in the NL Central and are right in the thick of the postseason race. 

Milwaukee Brewers 23-26

Remaining Schedule: 3vsKC, 3@CIN, 4vsSTL, 1@STL

What They Do Well: Christian Yelich.

What They Do Poorly: Keep their players from opting out.

538 Playoff %: 43%

Path to Postseason: The Brewers are just one game behind second-place St. Louis. This would be the easiest option for Milwaueke to get in. Milwaukee is also in the thick of a 4-team battle for the 8th Wild Card seed.

Philadelphia Phillies 24-24

Remaining Schedule: 1vsNYM, 1@TOR, 3vsTOR, 2@WAS, 2vsWAS, 3@TB

What They Do Well: Have great fans.

What They Do Poorly: Bryce Harper is overpaid.

538 Playoff %: 73%

Path to Postseason: The Phillies currently sit at the 8 seed in the National League. The position is very precarious as three teams are all within one game of Philly for that 8 spot.

Arizona Diamondbacks 19-31

Remaining Schedule: 3@HOU, 2vsTEX, 4vsCOL

What They Do Well: Lately? Not too much.

What They Do Poorly: I always forget about them.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Path to Postseason: Extremely narrow path. Might as well not even try.

Los Angeles Angels 20-30

Remaining Schedule: 4vsTEX, 2@SD, 3@LAD

What They Do Well: Squander Mike Trout’s career.

What They Do Poorly: Keeping Ohtani’s arm healthy.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Path to Postseason: Joke of a franchise, here. Don’t worry about their path. The Angels haven’t reached the postseason since 2014 … and they lost in the first round.

Toronto Blue Jays 26-22

Remaining Schedule: 1@NYY, 1vsPHI, 3@PHI, 4vsNYY, 3vsBAL

What They Do Well: Move to Buffalo.

What They Do Poorly: Make their bettors money. Blue Jays bettors have actually lost $11 in 2020.

538 Playoff %: 96%

Path to Postseason: The Blue Jays have stood their ground in a tough AL East division to put themselves in a good spot.

Boston Red Sox 18-32

Remaining Schedule: 3vsNYY, 3vsBAL, 3@ATL

What They Do Well: Lose.

What They Do Poorly: Win.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Path to Postseason: Given the prowess of Boston GM Dave Dombrowski, I wouldn’t be surprised if this horrible season is intentional. If ya gotta tank, might as well do it during the 60-game season, right? … Less suffering.

Colorado Rockies 22-26

Remaining Schedule: 4vsLAD, 4@SF, 4@ARI

What They Do Well: Blow division leads.

What They Do Poorly: Use the talents of Nolan Arenado.

538 Playoff %: 6%

Path to Postseason: The Rockies are 4 games back of the 8 seed in the National League with 5 teams ahead of them and 12 games to go.

San Francisco Giants 24-24

Remaining Schedule: 3@OAK, 4vsCOL, 3vsSD, 1@SD

What They Do Well: Play in picturesque games with the Mariners.

What They Do Poorly: The Giants don’t run much. San Francisco ranks 24th in the MLB in steals with 16.

538 Playoff %: 51%

Path to Postseason: The Giants are in the thick of a 5-team race for the two National League Wild Card berths.

Miami Marlins 25-22

Remaining Schedule: 5vsWAS, 4@ATL, 3@NYY

What They Do Well: They are still winning, somehow.

What They Do Poorly: I’ve never been the biggest Derek Jeter fan.

538 Playoff %: 77%

Path to Postseason: Nobody expected Miami to be the National League’s 5 seed entering the final week of the 2020 MLB regular season. 

Texas Rangers 18-31

Remaining Schedule: 1@HOU, 4@LAA, 2@ARI, 4vsHOU

What They Do Well: Not too much. Texas does steal a lot of bases, though. The Rangers rank 4th in baseball with 42 steals – just 4 steals behind the league leader.

What They Do Poorly: The Rangers have no offense. Their .213 team batting average is lowest in the American League. They don’t hit for power, either – sporting an American League-worst .136 ISO.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Path to Postseason: The Rangers are the Pirates of the American League … not a compliment.

Kansas City Royals 21-29

Remaining Schedule: 3@MIL, 3vsSTL, 4vsDET

What They Do Well: Speed. The Royals have stolen the 6th-most bases in baseball (41).

What They Do Poorly: Win games against Major League teams.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Path to Postseason: Not even worth discussing.

Seattle Mariners 22-27

Remaining Schedule: 3vsSD, 3vsHOU, 3@OAK, 1vsOAK

What They Do Well: Lose.

What They Do Poorly: Their prospects never seem to develop. Expectations are always for “next season” in Seattle.

538 Playoff %: 5%

Path to Postseason: Seattle was sporting a much better record at this point last season. The M’s are going to need a lot of help if they want to qualify for the postseason. Seattle is 4 games behind Houston for second place in the AL West. Alternatively, Seattle could surpass Toronto for the 8-seed Wild Card berth. The Jays are also 4 ahead of Seattle.

Pittsburgh Pirates 14-34

Remaining Schedule: 4vsSTL, 1@STL, 4vsCHC, 3@CLE

What They Do Well: Nothing.

What They Do Poorly: Everything.

538 Playoff %: <1%

Path to Postseason: Um, somehow the league-worst Pirates aren’t mathematically eliminated … How?

Detroit Tigers 21-27

Remaining Schedule: 4vsCLE, 2@MIN, 4@KC

What They Do Well: Make their manager retire.

What They Do Poorly: Hit the ball. For the second-straight year, Detroit hitters own the highest strikeout rate in baseball. The Tigers have struck out in 27.3% of their 2020 plate appearances.

538 Playoff %: 2%

Path to Postseason: Same old Tigers. Except now with a new manager.

Baltimore Orioles 22-27

Remaining Schedule: 1@TB, 3vsTB, 3@BOS, 3@TOR

What They Do Well: They pull upsets. The O’s have made bettors $941 this year when they are an underdog.

What They Do Poorly: Play consistently. The O’s have gradually allowed their once-winning record to sink all the way to fourth in the AL East.

538 Playoff %: 2%

Path to Postseason: Don’t hold your breath, Baltimore.