Boxing Day in the Premier League: Best Odds, Forecast, and O/U Goal Total Predictions

Monday, December 26: Brentford F.C. vs Tottenham Hotspur

Premiership gambling markets take strange turns following a FIFA World Cup. In fact, there’s reason to think that this winter’s Premier League odds will shift in directions that cannot be anticipated via any past experience at the sportsbook.

FIFA does not usually host its world championship gala in November. That means minor injuries suffered in 2022 World Cup action will affect club match outcomes instead of just giving the nicked-up footballer an excuse to skip summertime friendly bouts.

In addition, FanDuel’s casual gamblers who are stricken with “international-team fever” may over-value strikers who had a hot FIFA tournament, forgetting that players’ form is known to fluctuate from club team to national flag and back again.

The early kickoff on Monday includes a Harry Kane appearance that serves as a good gauge of World Cup superstars’ mindsets going into Boxing Day. On one hand, Kane is coming off another fine FIFA appearance for England in which the boot’s improved dynamism in open space proved undeniable to even the harshest critics. But the proud English side also lost in quarter-final action in Qatar, and the fact that Three Lions lost to the elites of UEFA in Les Bleus of France can hardly help to salve another FIFA World Cup disappointment. Kane arrives in West London more frustrated than full of joy for the task ahead.

A star striker’s headlines are not dominating the odds, at least not this time. Spurs of Tottenham (-105) are a solid money-line favorite over Bees of Brentford (+260) on Monday. Bees come into the Premier League kickoff having been responsible for one of the strangest match-result ledgers seen from a top-tier professional club in some time.

Brentford, across all competitions, has lost to League Two patsy Gillingham in a tiebreaker, failed to conquer a series of inferior reserve teams from France, Spain, and Austria in low-key friendlies, and relinquished points to 2022-23 English Premier League light-weights like Tricky Trees, Wolves, and 7-loss Aston Villa. In the same span of kickoffs, Bees—wait for it—has also drawn with Pensioners, and tripped host Man City behind Ivan Toney’s dazzling performance. That is a high ceiling and low floor of the sort that does not come along anywhere in the world of sports often.

Brentford’s mysterious upset sauce, as believed by our prediction team, requires getting paired against a star-studded team for which tactics and touches can come into conflict in a game plan. When the Premier League schedule has matched Brentford against methodical, blue-collar sides playing at the top of their form, like Magpies, the other shoe drops on Bees – or at least that high ceiling caves in. Lilywhites are a star-laden English Premier League pick if there ever was one, but Kane’s lack of joy following Qatar ’22 could actually work in Lilywhites’ favor in this case. Bees’ tendencies over the club’s strange fall are now available for deluxe “box-set” scouting packages, letting Lilywhites manager Antonio Conte know that Spurs can prevail if the team ironically copies Kane’s workmanlike demeanor.

Only reckless forward numbers would open things up for Toney’s thin corps of attackers.

WagerBop’s Pick: Tottenham (-105)

Monday, December 26: Leicester City vs Newcastle United

Foxes of Leicester City (+230) are a Boxing Day underdog coming into the Premier League’s restart without FIFA World Cup momentum, thanks to Leicester City’s unlucky presence on some of Qatar’s more disappointed national teams like Belgium and Senegal.

Of course, Foxes’ supporters would be quick to point out that the club had a significantly fatter representation than Magpies of Newcastle United (+115) in Qatar, outside of Magpies’ trio of footballers toiling Three Lions. The presence of Thiago Almada on Argentina’s triumphant World Cup team while toiling actively for Major League Soccer should serve to discourage readers from ranking English Premier League clubs based on how many FIFA representatives appear from each lineup every 4 years. Magpies’ outstanding 8-6-1 Premiership record and Newcastle’s relatively fresh legs have cast Magpies as FanDuel’s (-1) (+310) goal spread pick for a match with (-122) odds on Over (2.5) total goals scored.

Perhaps when looking more closely at the numbers, it is London’s overall expectations of fireworks on Boxing Day that have driven Foxes-Magpies’ low-side total goals picks to generous “plus” odds. Just think of how many Group Stage matches in the 2022 World Cup commenced in a much more quiet 1st-half fashion than viewers anticipated. Premier League punters are used to watching players excel for FIFA teams in the summer, acquire some real time off, then arrive refreshed for the new cycle.

Conversely, in 2022, the footballers now arrive for their English Premier League outs having just endured the drama and physical grind of a world championship. That means competition could be slower-paced than anticipated during club contests in December, just as care-worn bodies led to dull round-robin play in Qatar.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+100)

Monday, December 26: Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Reds’ array of FIFA stars stands against just a quartet of World Cup 2022 footballers from AVFC, but that includes one player who will be grocery shopping at 4 AM for a while to try to escape the paparazzi – Emiliano Martínez of La Albiceleste.

Very few care that Martínez allowed 2 goals on Les Bleus’ first 3 shots on target in World Cup Final action, only that he was amazing in the tiebreaker that earned Team Argentina the gold. Casual bettors may assume that the GK will now waltz back to Villa Park and put on another classic against Mohamed Salah and Liverpool.

But, as is often the case when big championship wins and bigger dollars collide, it is not quite so simple as that. Aston Villa officials are said to be “in talks” with Martínez about potentially playing against Liverpool on Monday, not a great sign considering the keeper has transfer offers already hitting the papers just 14 matches into the Premier League slate.

It may be the Argentine is so happy at the moment that he’ll play 90+ minutes and go on to donate his Aston Villa paycheck from Boxing Day to charity. Or, Martínez could conceivably sit out a series of league kickoffs while the smoke clears on La Albiceleste’s amazing victory in Qatar. As a result, the betting lines are in a holding pattern with Aston Villa (+380) still a 4-to-1 odds underdog vs the iconic visiting team.

FanDuel’s lopsided “Yes” and “No” odds for “Both Teams to Score” proposition picks may overlook the angle that if Aston Villa’s best defense is not available, Liverpool could turn an early pair of goals into a cautious 2nd-half plan for victory, and in doing so, rest a ton of players who have had an exceptionally busy fall.

WagerBop’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (“No” Proposition Pick) (+132)

Monday, December 26: Arsenal F.C. vs West Ham United

Resuming the 2022-23 season may be a chance for Reds to catch up, and it is also now Gunners’ time to realize how the Premier League championship race has become more favorable that before, with Arsenal 7 full points ahead of Man City.

Foxes’ surprise title in the 2010s came about, in part, thanks to novel tactics, while Gunners’ potential 1st-place quest in the spring of 2023 has inspired skepticism from odds-makers who see no such prohibitive angles just yet. Man City is still widely expected to grind through the cold winter months with points produced that Gunners’ depth won’t be able to score when the injuries bear down.

However, a quick glance at Arsenal’s improved (+220) odds to win the English Premier League crown should illustrate how narratives are changing around the league’s top teams. Arsenal has not allowed a goal against in Premier League or UEFA competition for nearly two months. Of course, that does not mean Gunners make a money-line guarantee at (-210) odds against Hammers of West Ham (+500) on Boxing Day.

Arsenal’s contingent of 10 footballers in Qatar was largely off-the-clock by the time the past week’s worth of drama rolled around. But manager Mikel Arteta’s lineup will consist of a majority of players who just suffered grave disappointments. With a nice lead over Man City that few pundits predicted, Arteta may proceed cautiously and let his team warm to the challenges that lay ahead.

FanDuel’s 1-to-1 odds on a Gunners-Hammers outcome of Under (2.5) goals could be ascribed to West Ham’s dodgy 2022-23 attack as much as Arsenal’s quality. However, the (+350) odds on a drawn result are substantially more optimistic than can be found within a wide array of lopsided markets on the English Premier League, meaning that bookmakers may anticipate a more solid, staid Gunners strategy as Arsenal refuses to panic at a tied scoreboard or the glimmering of 2 points.

That is especially persuasive given Man City’s problems with upset losses in Premier League play, a fast return to action against Reds, and player fatigue that Pep Guardiola is not used to in December. Arsenal appears to be enjoying an all-around upper hand on Man City for a change, bad news for those hoping for another Gunners pratfall in the English Premier League.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+102)

Tuesday, December 27: Chelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth

Yankee folks are excited to bet on Christian Pulisic and Pensioners this holiday, but they will have to wait for an extra sunrise due to Blues’ spectator status on Boxing Day. There may be other reasons, however, for wise bettors to avoid placing too many units on Pensioners’ thin (-340) odds to beat Cherries (+1000) on Tuesday’s match. Chelsea is in the midst of a scoring slump that’s casting Graham Potter’s new tenure in a very unfavorable light.

The back-line coached by Potter for a substantial time now has not been chiefly responsible for Pensioner’s lowly 8th-place standing in England’s top tier, outside of a poor performance against Seagulls’ 4-goal effort on October 29th. Far more worrisome is that Pulisic and the team’s strikers are responsible for zero Premier League goals since the aforementioned loss in Brighton & Hove Albion. Pensioners’ disappointing days have come against teams like Gunners, but they have also occurred against Magpies and Villa.
Odds are tilted toward the high side of Over/Under (2.5) total goals picks in anticipation of Chelsea finding their footing on the pitch. We would like to see it before believing it.

WagerBop’s Pick: Both Teams To Score (“No” Proposition Pick) (-126)