Betting Western NFL Underdogs Out East

Living on the west coast and travelling eastward to play a football game is tough. The weather and air pressure are different. The game starts at 10 am your time. It can trip up even the best of teams.

I wanted to run some numbers and see exactly how teams from the AFC and NFC West have fared when they travel as underdogs to face teams in other time zones. Let’s take a look and see if we can come up with a good NFL betting strategy.

Year	Record/% as Dog	Average Spread
2017	11-14 / 44%	+4.5
2016	11-15-1 / 42.3%	+4.9
2015	7-16-2 / 30.4%	+5.1
2014	9-5 / 64.3 %	+4.7
2013	11-6-3 / 64.7%	+5.3
2012	17-14 / 54.8%	+6.0
2011	16-19-1 / 45.7%	+7.3
2010	8-14 / 36.4%	+6.1
2009	19-17-2 / 52.8%	+7.8
2008	19-20 / 48.7%	+7.6
2007	12-23-2 / 34.3%	+6.8

 

Okay, I went back pretty far but I wanted to really point out the ebbs and flows of western road underdog’s performances.

Vegas is Bad at Predicting Western NFL Underdogs

There is admittedly a lot of variability in these games. How will the western team respond to a long plane ride? Will the home-field advantage be too much to overcome? How will two teams that seldom play each other match up?

Because these games are so difficult to predict, the results have been extremely cyclical. Western road dogs have performed very poorly the past three seasons but could not be stopped in the three seasons before that.

To determine if this swing was a result of better play or of compensation by the oddsmakers, I decided to look at the average spread of the games for western road underdogs out east each season.

Back in the 2000s, the average line was +6 or +7 and these western underdogs struggled ATS. After a good season in 2009, the line shifted against these road teams. After a miserable ATS record in 2010, the line suddenly became much more favorable in 2011.

Likewise, when these dogs went on a good run from 2012-14, their lines became increasingly tougher to beat. The lines continued to stiffen as the western underdogs continued to win.

Now this is the exciting part: It looks like 2018 is the first year of a big swing. The average line in 2017 reached an all-time low at +4.5 and the western dogs won only 44% ATS.

The average line has jumped up to +5.2 through the first two weeks of 2018. What the oddsmakers are doing is so transparent. They cannot seem to figure out proper lines for these teams and are simply reacting to the previous season’s numbers.

As educated bettors, we need to realize this and understand that we have a great opportunity to get ahead of the trend. Now is the time to jump all over western road underdogs as their lines are going to be inflated by a point or two.

See you at the top!