The whistle sounds after 60 minutes and the teams are still tied. The announcer says in a dramatic voice, “We are going to overtime!”.
Overtime games can be physically and emotionally exhausting for players and coaches alike. Teams are very susceptible to coming out flat after a taxing performance.
It can be difficult to bring the necessary intensity to a game following an overtime battle. In a league with as much parity as the NFL, a slight edge in motivation and drive can really tilt the scales.
I wanted to look at some numbers and determine how teams perform after playing an overtime game the week prior. I especially focused on home favorites.
Teams playing at home are normally given an advantage in the spread and thus it is a bit more difficult for them to cover. Here is what I found.
Home Favorites Following an OT Game
| Year | ATS | ATS Win % | Avg Line | SU | SU Win % |
| 2018 | 0-6 | 0% | -6.8 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 4-2 | 66.7% | -6.2 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2016 | 5-1 | 83.3% | -4.5 | 6-0 | 100% |
| 2015 | 1-8 | 11.1% | -7.2 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2014 | 3-3 | 50% | -4.0 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 5-0-1 | 100% | -3.9 | 6-0 | 100% |
| 2012 | 3-11 | 21.4% | -4.9 | 3-11 | 21.4% |
| 2011 | 1-6-1 | 14.3% | -4.8 | 4-4 | 50% |
| 2010 | 5-8 | 38.5% | -5.8 | 9-4 | 69.2% |
| 2009 | 3-5 | 37.5% | -7.4 | 4-4 | 50% |
| 2008 | 5-5-1 | 50% | -5.8 | 8-3 | 72.7% |
| Total | 35-55-3 | 38.9% | -5.6 | 54-39 | 58.1% |
So there has been a lot of fluctuation year-to-year but the overarching trend is very apparent: home favorites have difficulty covering the spread after a hard-fought OT game.
A home favorite has yet to win ATS in 2018 following overtime. ATS records for these teams were terrible in 2015, 2012, and 2011, showing this is not a one-time phenomenon.
Home Underdogs Following an OT Win
The next logical filter to add to my search was that the team won their previous game. This chart shows how those same home favorites fared when they won the overtime game the week prior.
| Year | ATS | ATS Win % | Avg Line | SU | SU Win % |
| 2018 | 0-2 | 0% | -6.5 | 2-0 | 100% |
| 2017 | 2-1 | 66.7% | -4.8 | 3-0 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3-0 | 100% | -6.2 | 3-0 | 100% |
| 2015 | 1-3 | 25% | -7.1 | 2-2 | 50% |
| 2014 | 2-0 | 100% | -1.2 | 2-0 | 100% |
| 2013 | 1-0 | 100% | -3.5 | 1-0 | 100% |
| 2012 | 1-5 | 16.7% | -5.2 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2011 | 1-4 | 20% | -5.0 | 3-2 | 60% |
| 2010 | 2-4 | 33.3% | -4.5 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50% | -3.5 | 1-1 | 50% |
| 2008 | 4-2 | 66.7% | -4.2 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| Total | 18-22 | 45% | -4.9 | 27-13 | 67.5% |
| Since ‘13 | 9-6 | 60% | -5.4 | 13-2 | 86.7% |
| ‘08-’12 | 9-16 | 36% | -4.6 | 14-11 | 56% |
They played better, covering 45% of the time compared to 38.9%. That still is not good, but it is better. You will notice there was a sharp change in the trend after the 2012 season. I split the totals column because these teams really struggled from 2008-12 but then flipped a switch in 2013.
Home Underdogs Following an OT Loss
If the home favorites after an OT game won a total of 38.9% of the time and won 45% after an OT win, then you know that their ATS record after an OT loss must be horrible … it is. Take a look.
| Year | ATS | ATS Win % | Avg Line | SU | SU Win % |
| 2018 | 0-2 | 0% | -3.2 | 0-2 | 0% |
| 2017 | 2-1 | 66.7% | -7.5 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 1-1 | 50% | -3.0 | 2-0 | 100% |
| 2015 | 0-5 | 0% | -7.2 | 1-4 | 20% |
| 2014 | 1-3 | 25% | -5.4 | 2-2 | 50% |
| 2013 | 4-0-1 | 100% | -4.0 | 5-0 | 100% |
| 2012 | 1-5 | 16.7% | -4.6 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2011 | 0-2-1 | 0% | -4.5 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 3-4 | 42.9% | -6.9 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2009 | 2-4 | 33.3% | -8.8 | 3-3 | 50% |
| 2008 | 1-3-1 | 25% | -7.7 | 3-2 | 60% |
| Total | 15-30-3 | 33.3% | -6.1 | 25-23 | 52.1% |
Bingo! We have found our trend. Bet against home favorites following an overtime loss. This system has been money for over a decade. In fact, this system is 62.7% ATS since 2002.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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