Best Breakout Hitters and Sleepers in July

Fantasy leagues, Vegas totals, moneylines. These are excellent ways to make money provided you can do one thing – find value.

Value exists when a player or team is underestimated by the public.

As we reach the 100-game mark in the MLB, full-season stats no longer paint a complete picture of a player’s worth.

For example, imagine 2 hitters – Hitter A and Hitter B. Let’s say that each are hitting .280 with 20 home runs in late July. You would think they are even, right? It is seemingly a tossup of which to add to your fantasy lineup or put money on in Vegas.

Looking closer at their made-up stats, however, we see that Hitter A did most of his damage in April – posting a .400 average with 14 home runs. He has been pretty bad since.

Meanwhile, Hitter B started slow during the cold-weather months but is hitting .340 since June 1 with 12 homers.

Which of these players currently possess greater value? Definitely Player B.

He’s currently hot despite the fact that his year-to-date numbers are watered down by a slow start. These are the types of guys we want to get behind because they tend to be overlooked – value.

Every baseball stats site (my go-to is Fangraphs) allows you to view a player’s numbers over various periods of time, such as the last-14 days or month-by-month. It is very important these filters are used. Looking strictly at year-to-date stats this late in the season will most often lead to ill-informed decisions.

Top 6 Sneaky Hot July Hitters

There are several hitters who are having tremendous success in the month of July whose year-to-date stats do not necessarily show it.

Here are the top-6 hitters who have just begun to get hot this month.

Manuel Margot – Padres

Looking for a speedy outfielder who gets on base? Manuel Margot is your guy.

The 24-year-old struggled mightily through the first 3 months of the season but Friers manager Andy Green kept his faith in Margot, continually granting him playing time. Margot now has his swing figured out and is drawing an enormous amount of walks.

He is a fixture at the top of the Padres’ batting order. You can often catch him standing on first base.

	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%
March-June	.238	3	25	15	10	6.2%
July	.313	5	13	5	3	18.6%
Total	.253	8	38	10	13	9.1%

See what I mean about deceptively poor season-long stats? Margot has been one of the best on-base guys in July, but you’d never know it without breaking his numbers down month-by-month.

In July, Margot has the 7th-highest walk rate, the 15th-highest OBP, and the 18th-highest Off in the Majors. For context, Cody Bellinger has the 22nd-highest Off this month.

Tyler Naquin – Indians

Another outfielder on a team desperately trying to make a playoff push – Tyler Naquin is pulling his share of the weight in Cleveland this month.

2019 has not always been kind to Naquin. His first 3 months can be summed up in one word – unproductive. Naquin totaled just 19 RBIs and scored only 14 times from late March through the end of June. He was also plagued by a strikeout rate north of 25%.

	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	K%
March-June	.253	6	19	14	3	25.2%
July	.396	3	11	10	1	17.0%
Total	.288	9	30	24	4	23.1%

Once the calendar hit July, Naquin has been a totally different hitter. His batting average this month is flirting with .400 and the 28-year-old has cut the strikeouts significantly.

.288 is a good overall average, but 30 RBIs and 24 runs with a 23.1% K rate is not impressive. Without sorting stats by month, many will overlook what Naquin has been doing lately.

Naquin’s .396 July batting average is 4th in the Majors among qualified hitters. His Off ranks 20th league wide.

Yuli Gurriel – Astros

You know him for that beautiful hair, but Gurriel has been more than just a fancy ‘do in July. The 35-year-old Cuban product is only in his 3rd full big league season, but the game now appears much easier for Yuli.

If you check his season-long stats, you’ll find that Gurriel is hitting a cool .294 with 20 bombs and 65 RBIs. Not shabby, but not Earth shattering, right?

Checking these same numbers a month ago would have yielded an entirely different reaction – a bad one. From late March through June, Gurriel had the lowest Off on the Astros roster … pitchers included.

Once the calendar hit July, Gurriel figured it was time to stop taking it easy on opposing pitchers – and trust me, he hasn’t.

The Astros’ worst first-half hitter is now leading the Major Leagues in Off in the month of July. Check out the numbers.

	AVG	HR	RBI	R	Off
March-June	.267	8	37	40	-4.8
July	.405	12	28	18	15.9
Total	.294	20	65	58	11.1

A negative Off means the Astros would have been better served to call up a replacement-level player from AAA Round Rock. Rather than benching or demoting Gurriel, Houston stuck with their man through all the 0-fers and are now reaping the benefits.

Yuli Gurriel leads the Major Leagues in batting average, home runs, and Off in July while ranking 2nd in RBIs and 3rd in runs. He’s the Cody Bellinger of July.

Enrique Hernandez – Dodgers

The Dodgers keep chugging along out in the West and 27-year-old utility man Enrique Hernandez is now contributing to the offense, too.

Hernandez’ bat was quiet through the first 3 months of the season but has exploded recently. In July, the 6-year vet is hitting .365 after sporting a .215 batting average through June. His walks are also up in July and strikeouts down – both excellent signs.

	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	BB%	K%
March-June	.215	13	41	34	2	7.8%	22.6%
July	.365	3	11	9	0	10.3%	17.2%
Total	.240	16	52	43	2	8.2%	21.8%

This month, Hernandez is sporting a .431 OBP – 21st in the Majors. His July Off is the 25th-highest in baseball. These are excellent metrics, especially considering that his overall line of .240/16/52 looks weak.

As a good on-base hitter in a good lineup, expect Hernandez to be in more RBI and run scoring situations than your average hitter.

Keston Hiura – Brewers

I love watching a young prospect find his footing in the Majors, and that is exactly what Keston Hiura has done this month … and then some.

The 22-year-old rookie second baseman is one of the top prospects in baseball, and his time has come. During the week of July 15th, Hiura won NL Player of the Week honors with a .517 batting average including 9 extra base hits.

Hiura made his MLB debut on May 14th, but it took him a few weeks to get comfortable offensively. The rookie picked July as his breakout month, which the Brewers have to love as they currently find themselves in the middle of a tight 3-team NL Central division race.

	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	BB%	K%
March-June	.270	5	9	8	1	3.8%	32.5%
July	.382	5	15	15	5	8.3%	29.8%
Total	.327	10	24	23	6	6.1%	31.1%

Some of you might be saying, hey, his overall average is .327. He’s not sneaky hot. True, but you must realize Hiura has only batted 164 times. His numbers do not appear on any batting average leaderboards as he is not qualified with that few of at-bats.

Plus, if you saw a hitter with only 5 home runs, 9 RBIs, and 8 runs scored through the end of June you would probably look right past him. I know I would.

Hiura has been no joke in July – unless you find being the 4th-best offensive player in the Major Leagues funny. Hiura’s Off is higher in July than the likes of Christian Yelich, Rafael Devers, and Jose Altuve.

A lot was expected of Hiura upon his call to the big leagues, but no one could have predicted this type of offensive outbreak. Brewers fans are already comparing Hiura to other top rookies in history, and he has barely been up for 2 months.

Aaron Hicks – Yankees

The 29-year-old outfielder Aaron Hicks may finally be starting to put it all together. The Yankees traded for the highly-touted prospect back in 2015 and have waited patiently for his game to blossom – even granting Hicks a monster 7-year contract extension.

April, May, and June were rough. Hicks couldn’t hit .220 and was averaging less than 8 runs and 8 RBIs per month. July has been a different story.

	AVG	OBP	HR	R	RBI	SB
March-June	.217	.311	6	24	24	1
July	.311	.391	5	11	10	0
Total	.247	.336	11	35	34	1

Hicks has nearly doubled his home run output this month and is now a key cog in that banged up Yankees lineup. Plus he can do this:

An instant classic ends with quite possibly the catch of the year. 😱

Baseball >>> pic.twitter.com/e6cEg9bG3R

— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2019

Check your fantasy leagues. Be diligent on those Vegas lines. Turn the success of these breakout sluggers into some extra walkin’ around money.

See you on top!