Become Unstoppable on the Hardwood This March

It is one thing when a team gets hot for a while, but it is a beautiful work of art when trends emerge across conferences. Large sample sizes make trends more trustworthy and winning streaks more profitable. As we enter the home stretch of the 2018-19 college basketball season, I want to break down several ways (scratch that … tons of ways) to make money on March hoops.

Conferences Good for a Regular Season March Over

There are not too many regular college basketball season games in March as conferences normally begin their tournaments within the first week of the month. Each team normally gets one or two, however, which can really add up over time considering many conferences have 12-16 teams.

Totals bettors are in luck. I have scoured the data and found 4 conferences that produce a profitable amount of overs each March. Keep in mind this data is only for the regular season. Conference tournament or NCAA tournament games are excluded from this section.

Before I break it down into more detail, here is a general overview of the numbers since the 2011-12 season. One final thing to keep in mind is that pushes do not count toward “Over %”. This means the “# of Games” and “Over %” columns may not always line up.

Conference	# of Games	Over %
Ivy League	74	63.9%
Big 12	64	58.7%
Big Ten	82	58.5%
Mountain West	64	55.6%
Total	284	58.5%

Vegas should hire someone from the Ivy League to ‘cap Ivy League games because whoever is doing it now is a chronic underestimator.

A 63.9% win rate over 74 games is good for a whopping 22% ROI. 22%! You could retire after a year or two of that! Remember, we only need a 52.4% win rate to break even on -110 bets. These rates in the upper 50s are gold mines!

Of course, we need to dig deeper and check out the consistency of this trend. I would put much more faith in a system that wins 64% of games every year than in one that wins 100% of games some years and 28% of games others.

I will first break it down conference-by-conference for each season since 2011-12 and will then put it all together. Sound exciting? Stick around.

Ivy League

Season	# of Games	Over %
2017-18	8	87.5%
2016-17	8	100%
2015-16	9	37.5%
2014-15	9	44.4%
2013-14	14	64.3%
2012-13	17	76.5%
2011-12	9	33.3%
Total	74	63.9%

It is certainly a good thing we took a deeper look. Although betting regular season Ivy League overs in March has been wildly profitable in total over the past 7 seasons, it has only made bettors money in 4 of those 7 years.

The system is as hot as ever right now, though, going 28-2 over the past two seasons. Don’t even ask what the ROI is on that … it’ll make you mad.

Are there Ivy League teams who seem to play over the total more than others? I’m glad you asked. Yes, there are. The Ivy League is very small – only 8 teams. This means over/under rates are anything but independent. In fact, there is only one team it would NOT have been profitable to bet March overs on since 2011. That team is Penn.

In a conference full of “over”-achievers, there are 5 schools above the 60% mark that I feel are worth illustrating. Here they are, along with their over win rates since the 2011-12 season.

Team	# of Games	Over %
Dartmouth	17	87.5%
Cornell	17	76.5%
Brown	17	68.8%
Harvard	17	64.7%
Yale	18	61.1%

My verdict on the Ivy League is this: Although Dartmouth, Cornell, and the rest have been killing it in the over department lately, the conference is a tad inconsistent year-to-year as a collective unit. I might consider betting just these 5 teams to play over the total and add that to my college hoops system.

Big 12

Season	# of Games	Over %
2017-18	5	60%
2016-17	7	66.7%
2015-16	8	37.5%
2014-15	9	66.7%
2013-14	15	33.3%
2012-13	15	80%
2011-12	5	80%
Total	64	58.7%

A bit more consistency here, which is nice. The only thing that scares me about the Big 12 is that their two most profitable years in this system came back in 2012 and 2013. I want to look at some team-by-team numbers before I make any decisions regarding the Big 12.

Here are some totals results for various Big 12 teams since the 2011-12 season.

Team	# of Games	Over %
Iowa St	12	75%
West Virginia	12	75%
Oklahoma St	12	66.7%
TCU	13	66.7%
Kansas St	13	61.5%

The Cyclones have been blowing away the total and so have a few of their conference mates. Texas Tech overs have actually been profitable since 2011-12, but barely, so I left them out. In case you were curious, this group has generated a … wait that can’t be right … it is … 29.3% ROI.

Sign me up.

Big Ten

 

I know that Michigan has ruled March in the Big Ten lately. Let’s check the numbers to see what else we can learn.

Season	# of Games	Over %
2017-18	0	—
2016-17	11	54.5%
2015-16	13	53.8%
2014-15	17	64.7%
2013-14	17	58.8%
2012-13	17	47.1%
2011-12	7	85.7%
Total	82	58.5%

Finally! This is the kind of consistency I can put a house on … it’s solid. If I need to raise some money for a nice vacation and could choose just one conference to bet regular season overs this March, I would choose the Big Ten.

Maybe I can do even better if I narrow my system to certain teams. Sure, the sample size will decrease but I can win more often. Let’s take a look at the individual teams under the hood making these stats pop.

Team	# of Games	Over %
Purdue	13	76.9%
Penn St	12	75%
Michigan St	15	73.3%
Michigan	13	69.2%
Nebraska	13	69.2%
Ohio St	11	63.6%
Wisconsin	14	57.1%

A perfect split right down the middle. 7 of the Big Ten’s 14 teams are well above the 52.4% mark for regular season March overs while the other 7 are holes in your pocket waiting to happen.

With 7 teams so far into the black, the profits are staggering when you restrict your bets to this group. I was floored with the Big 12 numbers and these are even better! A combined 69.2% win rate on overs with a large sample size of 91 games equates to a 32.2% ROI – a $3,200 profit for $100/game bettors.

Mountain West

A little less known than the other conferences, anyone can still profit from Mountain West basketball. You can profit even if you have never stayed up to watch a Mountain West game, didn’t know there was a Mountain West conference, or had to google “what are mountains”.

Here is how the numbers take shape when you look at over win rates in MWC regular season March games since the 2011-12 season.

Season	# of Games	Over %
2017-18	5	60%
2016-17	8	25%
2015-16	10	70%
2014-15	10	50%
2013-14	15	60%
2012-13	12	45%
2011-12	4	100%
Total	64	55.6%

I’m getting a “Big 12” sort of vibe here. The best year for this system was way back in 2012 and it has been a touch inconsistent since.

While these numbers do not immediately compel me to start betting MWC overs, I really want to look at the team-by-team breakdown now. I want to find some diamonds in the rough and narrow my system like I did with the other conferences.

Team	# of Games	Over %
Colorado St	11	100%
Wyoming	11	63.6%
Utah St	8	62.5%
Air Force	13	61.5%

This disappointed me a bit. The Rams are totally inflating the MWC numbers with their insane 10-0 run. This looks less like a conference consistently playing over the total and more like one team shooting way better than Vegas expects them too.

While the rest of the conference is not pulling their weight, these 4 teams are very solid bets to go over the total in their March regular season games. All 4 have been profitable, not just over the past 7 years, but over the past 3. This means they are hot (or as hot as one can get playing 1 or 2 games per March).

Putting it All Together for Maximum Profits

If we want a system with the largest possible sample size, we should bet the over on each regular season March game in these 4 conferences (B10, B12, MWC, IVY). Since 2011, this system has generated 284 plays. That is 284 games in which we hold a distinct advantage over the house.

Of those 284 plays, the over has cashed out 59.3% of the time. This is an ROI of 13.2%. Not as high as some of the numbers earlier in the article, but still astronomical compared to normal returns on investments.

Over such a large sample size, a 13.2% ROI has generated $100/game bettors $4,060 since 2011! Have the results been consistent? Check out the year-by-year breakdown.

Season	# of Games	Over %
2017-18	36	72.2%
2016-17	68	59.4%
2015-16	80	51.3%
2014-15	90	57.8%
2013-14	122	54.1%
2012-13	122	63.3%
2011-12	50	68%
Total	568	59.3%

I like what I’m seeing here. The question we must always ask ourselves is “can we do better?”. Let’s find out.

Being More Selective to Increase ROI

What if we decided to bet only that handful of teams that were well into the black from each conference? That would surely increase ROI, but would it drop the sample size too low to make a decent profit? Let’s see what the data says.

From the Ivy League, we had 5 standout teams. We also had 5 standouts in the Big 12 and a whopping 7 in the Big Ten. The Mountain West is contributing 4 teams to our system.

If we look only at the times since the 2011-12 season in which these 21 teams played March regular season games, our sample size would be cut down from 568 to 290. Our win rate skyrockets, however, up to 68.9%!

This means the ROI on these 21 teams since 2011 is … oh boy … 31.5%. I can’t even keep a straight face saying it. This amounts to 9,910 dollars in profit over the past 7 Marches, or over $1,400 a year.

This ludacris ROI more than makes up for a smaller sample size. It gets even better. This system is uber-consistent, too! Here is the year-by-year.

Season	# of Games	Over %
2017-18	18	77.8%
2016-17	33	74.2%
2015-16	37	63.9%
2014-15	46	71.7%
2013-14	61	63.9%
2012-13	66	67.7%
2011-12	29	72.4%
Total	290	68.9%

‘Nuff said. Let’s look at some unders now. D-Fence!

Conferences Good for a Regular Season March Under

It’s funny how the data works out sometimes. The 4 aforementioned Division 1 conferences always seem to play over the total in March while 4 others always seem to play under. Take a look.

Conference	# of Games	Under %
Pac-12	86	55.8%
Big West	63	55.7%
Atlantic 10	96	55.4%
SEC	95	54.8%
Total	340	55.4%

Not quite as lofty as the over-conference win rates, but hey, we can’t be too picky here. Profit is profit. Let’s repeat the same process as above to fully flesh out our data and develop a system.

The first step: look at year-by-year results for each conference to check for consistency.

Pac-12

Season	# of Games	Under %
2017-18	10	60%
2016-17	10	80%
2015-16	10	60%
2014-15	14	35.7%
2013-14	17	58.8%
2012-13	15	73.3%
2011-12	10	20%
Total	86	44.2%

This is the kind of trend we want to find. Unlike some of the over-conferences who had their best years back in 2012 and 2013, the Pac-12 win rates for unders have been trending up since 2014. They got their worst years out of the way early and have been extremely profitable since.

As with before, I feel the need to break down the Pac-12 team-by-team to find who is with us and who is against us.

Turns out this trend is being led by the efforts of 7 teams. I like when more teams are involved in the trend for two reasons. One: bigger sample size means bigger profits. Two: a trend is bound to be more consistent when more teams are involved in it. The extra teams act as a buffer against randomness.

Here are those teams, along with their under win rates since the 2011-12 season.

Team	# of Games	Under %
UCLA	15	73.3%
Colorado	15	66.7%
California	15	66.7%
USC	14	64.3%
Utah	14	64.3%
WASH St	15	60%
Arizona St	14	57.1%

I’m loving the consistency of the Pac-12. Arizona is slightly profitable but I chose to leave them off this shortlist. The only bad egg is Oregon St. The Beavers have played over the total in 78.6% of their March regular season games since the 2011-12 season. Avoid them and you’re good.

Big West

Season	# of Games	Under %
2017-18	7	66.7%
2016-17	8	75%
2015-16	8	50%
2014-15	8	57.1%
2013-14	12	50%
2012-13	14	42.9%
2011-12	6	66.7%
Total	63	55.7%

The BW numbers are a little shakier than those from the Pac-12. Not to worry – we don’t have to bet the conference as a whole. We can pick ‘n choose.

Here are some totals results for various Big West teams since the 2011-12 season.

Team	# of Games	Under %
Cal Poly	14	75%
Cal St Fullerton	13	69.2%
UC Davis	16	68.8%
Long Beach St	14	57.1%

It isn’t love at first sight for me with these BW numbers. Only 4 teams jumped out as “crazy profitable”. UC Riverside and UC Santa Barbara are just barely in the black. The remaining 4 schools are working against us. Nonetheless, we will add this profitable quartet into our combined system at the end and will gladly accept the ROI boost.

Atlantic 10

VCU, Dayton, Davidson, St Louis – there is some pretty good talent in the A10. Let’s see how they fare when held up to the year-by-year microscope.

Season	# of Games	Under %
2017-18	7	33.3%
2016-17	13	66.7%
2015-16	14	57.1%
2014-15	14	71.4%
2013-14	18	61.1%
2012-13	24	60%
2011-12	6	60%
Total	96	55.4%

Aw man! They were doing so good until last year. Hopefully this was just a blip in the radar and we will continue with the profits this March. Which teams carry the A10 in this department? Let’s find out.

Team	# of Games	Under %
Fordham	14	83.3%
George Mason	10	70%
VCU	13	66.7%
La Salle	14	64.3%
St Bonaventure	12	58.3%
Richmond	13	58.3%
St Louis	14	58.3%
Massachusetts	14	57.1%

Forget the Big West, the A10 is where it’s at. This conference is a real who’s who of March regular season under-hitting teams. Rhode Island and Duquesne were also profitable, albeit slightly.

A10? More like “Ayy, there’s 10 reasons to love this conference.”

SEC

Now we move onto a conference called the … Southeastern Conference? Oh right, they go by the SEC. I’ve heard of them. While we don’t normally think of the SEC as a hoopin’ conference, we can still squeeze profits out of them. I won’t tell if you don’t.

Season	# of Games	Under %
2017-18	7	71.4%
2016-17	11	40%
2015-16	14	42.9%
2014-15	14	50%
2013-14	21	66.7%
2012-13	21	42.9%
2011-12	7	100%
Total	95	54.8%

Well, this does not exactly inspire complete confidence. Losing seasons in 3 of the last 4 years is no way to roll. Let’s take a look at some individual teams and see if we can salvage anything useful from the SEC.

Team	# of Games	Under %
Alabama	14	71.4%
Tennessee	14	64.3%
Auburn	14	64.3%
Mississippi St	13	61.5%
Missouri	12	58.3%
Kentucky	14	57.1%

Once again, I left out a couple of teams that were barely profitable since 2011 because their numbers were too inconsistent for my liking. Pretty solid across the board, though. 6 highly profitable teams is not bad at all. I’m impressed. These will make a fine addition to our final system.

Putting it All Together (Again) for Maximum Profits

This is where the magic happens. This is when we combine the most profitable aspects of each system and generate those eye-popping ROIs. Drumroll please. When we bet under for each regular season March game a team in any of these 4 conferences has played since 2011, we get a total of 277 plays.

The under has hit in 55.4% of those 277 games, good for a 5.7% ROI. That’s an extremely good return, ladies and gentlemen. It pales in comparison to previous returns we have calculated, however. That is because so many teams at the bottom of the conference were holding us back. Let’s shed that weight and watch the win rates soar!

Being More Selective (Again) to Increase ROI

I highlighted the 26 teams that were especially proficient at playing under the total in March. If we limit our system to only games involving these teams, our ROI will increase significantly.

Since the 2011-12 season, we have had 359 plays. A massive percentage of these games, 64.1% to be exact, have fallen under the total. This comes out to an ROI of … hope you’re sitting down … 22.4% with profits of over $8,600! I can’t stop smiling. Here is the year-by-year.

Season	# of Games	Under %
2017-18	32	65.5%
2016-17	45	76.7%
2015-16	48	56.2%
2014-15	54	67.9%
2013-14	74	70.3%
2012-13	74	54.8%
2011-12	32	58.1%
Total	359	64.1%

Well I’m exhausted between researching this data and dreaming about how I’m going to spend the money. It’s time for a nap. See you on top, boppers!